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It’s no guarantee, but it is a good opportunity. I’m half-Persian, and certainly not as closely connected as others, but it’s hard to see this as a bad thing. T
by pinkmuffinere 8mo ago
It’s no guarantee, but it is a good opportunity. I’m half-Persian, and certainly not as closely connected as others, but it’s hard to see this as a bad thing. There’s a possibility I can go visit my family in Iran as a result of this. I haven’t had a good chance for that in like 4 years
- kubb 8mo agoI would defer the celebration until you can.
- empath75 8mo agoThe most likely situation is continuity. They just pick a new supreme leader. The second most likely situation is a civil war.
- reliabilityguy 8mo agoThere is also a possibility of a Venezuela-style cooperation.
- readthenotes1 8mo agoAdding Iranian oil back to the market will lower prices everywhere, including Russia. I'm not so sure the extra-heavy Venezuelan oil will be affected as much. Anyone know?
- alephnerd 8mo agoIndia used to use Venezuelan crude before the 2019 sanctions [0][1] India only shifted to using Russian oil in 2022 [2] after Venezuelan [3] and Iranian [4] oil sanctions were enacted, which was when both began increasing engagement with China. It's a similar story for South Korea [5] and Japan [6]. This helps reduce prices for ONG, as India is shifting back to Venezuelan crude which gives slack which South Korea and Japan can take advantage of, as India, Japan, and South Korea represent 3 of the 5 largest oil consumers globally. [0] - https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/ongc-awaits-instructions-about-restarting-operation-in-venezuela-sees-positive-movement/article70627753.ece https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/ongc-awaits-instr... [1] - https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/reliance-venezuelan-oil-imports-us-license/article70628080.ece/ https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/reliance-venezuel... [2] - https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65553920 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65553920 [3] - https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/india-and-venezuela-grow-distant-post-us-sanctions https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/india-and-venezuela-gro... [4] - https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trump-tightens-sanctions-on-irans-oil-exports-how-india-will-respond/ https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trump-tightens-sanctions-... [5] - https://eastasiaforum.org/2019/09/13/south-korean-oil-refineries-hit-hard-by-iran-sanctions/ https://eastasiaforum.org/2019/09/13/south-korean-oil-refine... [6] - https://mei.edu/ar/publication/japan-and-middle-east-navigating-us-priorities-and-energy-security/ https://mei.edu/ar/publication/japan-and-middle-east-navigat...
- bsjaux628 8mo agoReminder: extra heavy oil means that there is more processing required to get useful materials out of it, which in turn becomes higher operational cost. So, if Iranian oil entered the market, prices would go down making Venezuelan oil non competitive (I believe the break even price for Venezuelan oil was close to 80$). At this moment the numbers don't add up to make companies go back into Venezuela given the price, uncertainty and past expiriences.
- roenxi 8mo agoIt is too early to know what "Venezuela-style cooperation" looks like. It hasn't even been 6 months since the US kidnapped Maduro; the base case is that Venezuela's leadership does more or less what they were going to do anyway under US diplomatic pressure. The US actually did something fairly similar in Iran; Trump had Soleimani blown up back in 2020. As we can see from the present situation, it failed to influence Iran in ways that the US thought were acceptable. It is rare for assassinations to have positive geopolitical ramifications.
- mda 8mo agoUnlikely, large proportion of population is brainwashed for 40 years. They will elect a "moderate" supreme leader, then business as usual.
- MichaelRo 8mo agoIn Romania it took some 10 years to reach some degree of functional democracy after the fall of communism and the execution on Ceaușescu, who coincidentally, just returned from the crowning of Khamenei, while learning, dictator-to-dictator, how to suppress a revolution: 1006 killed, though most of them not by the initial "Revolutionary Guards" reprisal but in the semi-civil war that followed. And that in a country/region without Islamic radicals trying to take over. So far, apart from Israel, no Middle East country has managed to function as a democracy. Turkey, the only Muslim majority who has the faintest chance of joining the European Union, only keeps stuff under control due to the army enforcing a secular state, which the liberal patsies in the West can't take, because authoritarianism is bad and diversity in accepting radical Islam creeping into our homeland is our strength.
- selimthegrim 8mo agoBosnia and Herzegovina, Albania and Kosovo won’t get into the EU?
- MichaelRo 8mo agoForgot they aren't already in EU.
- MichaelRo 8mo agoAlso I'm getting downvoted and don't really understand unless I fall back to experience from 30 years ago, after the Romanian revolution and fall of =~ 50 years of dictatorial regime (not that before that was much better, with small interruptions). At that time (1990), when everything seemed possible and a quick path to democracy and all that it brings (in the imaginary of the poor, oppressed people that we were) along with it, this guy came along: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ion_Ra%C8%9Biu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ion_Ra%C8%9Biu He ran for president in the first free elections and made some 0.5% or something. I remember him for his words which go along the "it will take 20 years at least, for democracy to settle in Romania". He was right on. Now, 30 years after, we have a strong, frile democracy. Everyone can run for president but not everyone can win, even if they could: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4x2epppego https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4x2epppego All things considered, I live a much, much better life now than 30 years ago during the communist dictatorship. Perfect? Far from it and perfection is a moving target. But we're definitely a solid democracy, and also definitely, it's a miracle the first 5-10 years didn't erupt in a full scale civil war. And the despised "revolutionary guards" had some involvement in making sure it didn't happen, so as much as you hate them, you need them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_clashes_of_T%C3%A2rgu_Mure%C8%99 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_clashes_of_T%C3%A2rgu_M...
- orthogonal_cube 8mo agoRemoval of the head of state is often a turning point. Either a regime becomes more extreme or the government collapses due to in-fighting as individuals attempt to gain control. I would hold back on any hopes until we see how the current government handles things. Intervention from other countries does not always lead to positive outcomes.
- tim333 8mo agoTrump seems to have thought it through a bit. Recent post: >...This is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country. We are hearing that many of their IRGC, Military, and other Security and Police Forces, no longer want to fight, and are looking for Immunity from us. As I said last night, “Now they can have Immunity, later they only get Death!” Hopefully, the IRGC and Police will peacefully merge with the Iranian Patriots, and work together as a unit to bring back the Country to the Greatness it deserves... The merge peacefully or die thing may motivate them.
- Rapzid 8mo agoCertainly people within the Trump administration have thought a lot about this.
- nullocator 8mo agoUh huh, and if you are an Iranian Policeman are you more concerned that the funny orange man yelling on the tv/phone is going to get you, or the mob forming outside your window? They might see it in their personal self interest to stay lock step with the former regime as a better form of self preservation than just surrendering to the population they've been abusing. It's not like the U.S. can offer them any actual immunity lmao.
- stefantalpalaru 8mo ago[dead]
- acjohnson55 8mo agoI hope that it works out for you and your family.
- swat535 8mo agoAs another Iranian living the West, I wish he would have been captured alive and stood trial. He should have answered for every single drop of blood on his hands. My 21 year old cousin was captured during the Mahsa uprising, she was sent to Evin prison, tortured for months. After she was released, we brought her to Canada and she was hospitalized for over a year. She will never be able to live a normal life again. Death was too merciful for Khamenei.
- _zagj 8mo agoMy condolences. Your cousin sounds very brave.
- gizajob 8mo agoWell he’s been slain like the dog that he was, alongside some family members - same as the families of those who were slain and tortured on his theocratic watch. Perhaps this is good evidence that Allah is just, even if Allah’s justice has to be delivered by the hands of the Israelis.
- temp8830 8mo ago[flagged]
- thomassmith65 8mo agoThis comment likely confuses Khomeini and Khamenei, and is inaccurate either way.
- throwaway2037 8mo agoWithout doxxing yourself, why were you unable to visit? I have known Persian expats a few times in my life, and they were always able to visit without issue.
- kj4211cash 8mo agoIf they have said anything against the regime on social media, they would be wise not to visit. I personally know many Persian expats who meet family in Turkey and have been anxious about going back.
- bewildered01 8mo ago[dead]
- phreeza 8mo agoNot OP but most common reason I've heard is military age males with unresolved mandatory military service status.
- throwaway2037 8mo agoOh good point! I knew some young Turkish men a while back that could not visit Turkey for similar reasons.
- pinkmuffinere 8mo agoHonestly I’m not sure I should say, sorry. Recent years have been worse than normal though, with lots of human rights violations, protests, protestors being tortured/killed, foreign nationals being held in prison/killed, etc.
- cnd78A 8mo agoA friend of mine, EU member, hasn't been able to visit USA because he was cricizing us gov (under BIdden), still not allowed. Ban and censorship isn't specific to Iran, many western nations love it too.
- throwawayheui57 8mo agoThere’s a difference between the ban where they don’t give you visa vs. censorship where they disappear you if you publicize your dissent. One must not conflate.
- IOT_Apprentice 8mo agoIf Israel & the US prevail, Israel will treat Iran as the do their other neighbors, bombing them whenever they feel like it and murdering your relatives there. Take a look at Syria where they installed the head of Al-Qaeda/HTS. The IDF has carried out 600 attacks there since 2024 till present. They have attacked the following areas since 2023: Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, Syria & Yemen.
- rmm78 8mo agoNope, every action protects Israeli citizens from the Iran terrorist regime. Thanks to Trump Iran will soon be Israel's ally again. Jews & Persians have centuries of mutual respect, the islamists were just a temporary curse