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PS: If openly bribing a crony gov to cancel your competitor is now the de-facto standard of making business in the US, I don't see how any rational investor cou

PS: If openly bribing a crony gov to cancel your competitor is now the de-facto standard of making business in the US, I don't see how any rational investor could still see US companies as a secure investment. When the rule of law degrades into pay-to-play politics, the inevitable result is a mass exodus of both capital and top-tier talent.

dragonwriter 8mo ago
> If openly bribing a crony gov to cancel your competitor is now the de-facto standard of making business in the US It very clearly is, the present AI instance is far from the only recent case. > I don't see how any rational investor could still see US companies as a secure investment. They evaluate the propensity and ability to profitably engage in open corruption the same as they evaluate other capacities of the company. “Secure” isn't a binary category, and the risk here is much like any other risk. > When the rule of law degrades into pay-to-play politics, the inevitable result is a mass exodus of both capital and top-tier talent. That is the expected result of increasing perceived risk. yes, probably one of those “slowly and then all at once” things.
ProllyInfamous 8mo ago
>I don't see how any rational investor could still see US companies as a secure investment. 2025 was also the first year that the majority of stocks were traded off-market (i.e. hedgie darkpools, no public price discovery). ---- Hope ya'll bought your gold before Monday. #RemindMe2days [gold@5290USD, this post]
- burner_ 8mo ago
  >2025 was also the first year that the majority of stocks were traded off-market (i.e. hedgie darkpools, no public price discovery). Do you have any sources for that?
  - throw-qqqqq 8mo ago
    It sounds quite plausible. Almost all equity ETFs do their balancing against dark pools or directly with market makers to avoid arbitrage and to ensure enough liquidity. Since index ETFs have more AUM than the underlying instruments (the “ETF tail wagging the dog”), this sounds like a natural evolution. There is nothing nefarious about this, it’s just how the markets work.
    - ProllyInfamous 8mo ago
      >nothing nefarious ... it’s just how the markets work. first_time.meme | Gold "up" 3.12% pre-Monday trading ($5411) #USDeflation #ThisGuyGetsIt
- maxbond 8mo ago
  Trades in dark pools still get published to the consolidated tape; they're still part of price discovery. What's "dark" about them is that you don't see the order book, but people break up large orders into smaller orders to disguise their order size in lit markets too.
foogazi 8mo ago
> I don't see how any rational investor could still see US companies as a secure investment. It’s the best investment - just bribe your way to contracts
jfengel 8mo ago
It's bizarre seeing the outright bribery. A lot of things that people call "bribery" is really just ensuring that your preferred candidate gets in office. You couldn't give money directly to the candidate for personal use. Donations went to the campaign of the guy who already agreed with you. The FEC used to take a dim view of outright pay-for-service, even dressed up. This is new. And now people need to decide how they feel about that. They get one chance to say "no, that's not how we do things." Even if the administration suffers a blow this November, if they hear that this is mostly acceptable to their base, it will be what every politician does from here on.
- wrqvrwvq 8mo ago
  In what sense is this new, other than a different side cares about the optics?
  - mikestew 8mo ago
    OP explained it clearly: “you couldn’t $1, now you can”. It would be helpful if you explained which part did you not understand. Alternatively, that barking sound I hear might be a sea lion.
- specialist 8mo ago
  IANAL, IIRC: SCOTUS has very narrowly defined bribery as explicit quid pro quo. And sometimes not even then.
  - RajT88 8mo ago
    You recall correctly. And they did so, so they could take bribes with no consequences as long as they take them the right way.
    - nobody9999 8mo ago
      >And they did so, so they could take bribes with no consequences as long as they take them the right way. Yep. cf. Snyder v. United States[0] [0] https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/06/supreme-court-limits-scope-of-anti-bribery-law/ https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/06/supreme-court-limits-scop...
CamperBob2 8mo ago
the inevitable result is a mass exodus of both capital and top-tier talent To where?
- ben_w 8mo ago
  Anywhere offering opportunity. I'm in Europe, I'd like to see it come here. The news I see suggests China's ahead of us in this race, but I don't know if that's for all talent, or if it was just an artefact of a lot of Chinese people in the US on work visas returning home. Or indeed whether the news about China doing well here was real or hallucinated by an LLM.
  - jakeydus 8mo ago
    If engineers in the US (i.e. me) want to find work in Europe, what can we do? I know that’s a googleable question but honestly I can’t help but think that there cannot be any European country that would want me and my family. Immigration is hard.
    - ben_w 8mo ago
      It is hard. I moved to Germany in 2018, and only just this month reached B1 level in the language; and that was a pre-Brexit move so I don't need to care about visa. The EU has a "blue card" scheme modeled on US green card: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Card_(European_Union) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Card_(European_Union) If language is your biggest barrier, pick a country whose language you already speak. As this clearly includes English, Ireland if you want specifically EU, and UK if you just want the continent (mainly London, but I spent a long time in Cambridge tech sector). Germany may still be an option even without being a native speaker (depending on your skills), but with all the difficulty everyone has today with AI messing with job hunting, get the contract before considering a move.
    - fernly 8mo ago
      Not that hard if you are in young to middle years and have any job experience. I asked Perplexity "If an American citizen, a trained engineer with some experience, desired to work abroad in the EU or an English-first nation, what are some good websites to check?" I suggest you do the same -- the reply lists a dozen promising sites. https://www.perplexity.ai/search/if-an-american-citizen-a-train-9bmuP5N0TJmLMn3swnSbMw https://www.perplexity.ai/search/if-an-american-citizen-a-tr...
coldtea 8mo ago
>I don't see how any rational investor could still see US companies as a secure investment. Investors just care for the returns. As long as they can identify and bet on the side doing the bribing, they're fine...
ilamont 8mo ago
> When the rule of law degrades into pay-to-play politics, the inevitable result is a mass exodus of both capital and top-tier talent. No, it's not inevitable. What you've described is the way a lot of authoritarian states work, such as China. China attracts plenty of capital and external talent, including people from other countries such as Taiwan and the United States. You have be all-in on the CCP's rules, though. Vietnam operates in a similar way. Untold billions of FDI in the past 20 years from Japan, the U.S. and China. Talk with top executives there, and you'll frequently find close connections or family ties with leaders in Hanoi.
- iririririr 8mo ago
  china attract zero capital in the sense being discussed here, which would be VC. it attract lots of capex expenses like factories.
danielparsons 8mo ago
Bit melodramatic. The US still has the most talent, most capital, and best property protections of anywhere in the world. Name a country that (1) doesn't have any quid-pro-quo system with the govt, and (2) has pro-growth pro-capitalist policies.
- RichEO 8mo ago
  I wonder if maybe those two things have a causal relationship
bootsmann 8mo ago
This has already happened, its a key reason why the dollar is down 15% since the new admin took power.
amarant 8mo ago
The logical conclusion to your analysis is that Musks companies must be a great investment. Musk already owns most of the government after all. And the US is still among the largest economies in the world.
Aeolun 8mo ago
> I don't see how any rational investor could still see US companies as a secure investment I the problem is that from the companies’s side you just have a whole country to exploit, so I’m fairly certain the investments still work.
direwolf20 8mo ago
That means bribing the government is a very secure and profitable investment to invest in.
cermicelli 8mo ago
Well you think corruption is bad for the rich investors? I hope I can find that kind of optimism and live in a more corrupt world. Tldr; Rich people can bribe more, hence Rich people can be more rich+er.. I think a lot of poor tech multi-millionaires hate this in US but all rich billionaires must be loving it...
therobots927 8mo ago
The rational investors have been moving their money outside the US for approximately 15 months. Compare the chart of VEA to VTI.
mountainriver 8mo ago
This has pretty much always been happening, it’s more brazen under Trump

dragonwriter 8mo ago

> If openly bribing a crony gov to cancel your competitor is now the de-facto standard of making business in the US It very clearly is, the present AI instance is far from the only recent case. > I don't see how any rational investor could still see US companies as a secure investment. They evaluate the propensity and ability to profitably engage in open corruption the same as they evaluate other capacities of the company. “Secure” isn't a binary category, and the risk here is much like any other risk. > When the rule of law degrades into pay-to-play politics, the inevitable result is a mass exodus of both capital and top-tier talent. That is the expected result of increasing perceived risk. yes, probably one of those “slowly and then all at once” things.

ProllyInfamous 8mo ago

>I don't see how any rational investor could still see US companies as a secure investment. 2025 was also the first year that the majority of stocks were traded off-market (i.e. hedgie darkpools, no public price discovery). ---- Hope ya'll bought your gold before Monday. #RemindMe2days [gold@5290USD, this post]

burner_ 8mo ago
>2025 was also the first year that the majority of stocks were traded off-market (i.e. hedgie darkpools, no public price discovery). Do you have any sources for that?
- throw-qqqqq 8mo ago
  It sounds quite plausible. Almost all equity ETFs do their balancing against dark pools or directly with market makers to avoid arbitrage and to ensure enough liquidity. Since index ETFs have more AUM than the underlying instruments (the “ETF tail wagging the dog”), this sounds like a natural evolution. There is nothing nefarious about this, it’s just how the markets work.
  - ProllyInfamous 8mo ago
    >nothing nefarious ... it’s just how the markets work. first_time.meme | Gold "up" 3.12% pre-Monday trading ($5411) #USDeflation #ThisGuyGetsIt
maxbond 8mo ago
Trades in dark pools still get published to the consolidated tape; they're still part of price discovery. What's "dark" about them is that you don't see the order book, but people break up large orders into smaller orders to disguise their order size in lit markets too.

foogazi 8mo ago

> I don't see how any rational investor could still see US companies as a secure investment. It’s the best investment - just bribe your way to contracts

jfengel 8mo ago

It's bizarre seeing the outright bribery. A lot of things that people call "bribery" is really just ensuring that your preferred candidate gets in office. You couldn't give money directly to the candidate for personal use. Donations went to the campaign of the guy who already agreed with you. The FEC used to take a dim view of outright pay-for-service, even dressed up. This is new. And now people need to decide how they feel about that. They get one chance to say "no, that's not how we do things." Even if the administration suffers a blow this November, if they hear that this is mostly acceptable to their base, it will be what every politician does from here on.

wrqvrwvq 8mo ago
In what sense is this new, other than a different side cares about the optics?
- mikestew 8mo ago
  OP explained it clearly: “you couldn’t $1, now you can”. It would be helpful if you explained which part did you not understand. Alternatively, that barking sound I hear might be a sea lion.
specialist 8mo ago
IANAL, IIRC: SCOTUS has very narrowly defined bribery as explicit quid pro quo. And sometimes not even then.
- RajT88 8mo ago
  You recall correctly. And they did so, so they could take bribes with no consequences as long as they take them the right way.
  - nobody9999 8mo ago
    >And they did so, so they could take bribes with no consequences as long as they take them the right way. Yep. cf. Snyder v. United States[0] [0] https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/06/supreme-court-limits-scope-of-anti-bribery-law/ https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/06/supreme-court-limits-scop...

CamperBob2 8mo ago

the inevitable result is a mass exodus of both capital and top-tier talent To where?

ben_w 8mo ago
Anywhere offering opportunity. I'm in Europe, I'd like to see it come here. The news I see suggests China's ahead of us in this race, but I don't know if that's for all talent, or if it was just an artefact of a lot of Chinese people in the US on work visas returning home. Or indeed whether the news about China doing well here was real or hallucinated by an LLM.
- jakeydus 8mo ago
  If engineers in the US (i.e. me) want to find work in Europe, what can we do? I know that’s a googleable question but honestly I can’t help but think that there cannot be any European country that would want me and my family. Immigration is hard.
  - ben_w 8mo ago
    It is hard. I moved to Germany in 2018, and only just this month reached B1 level in the language; and that was a pre-Brexit move so I don't need to care about visa. The EU has a "blue card" scheme modeled on US green card: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Card_(European_Union) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Card_(European_Union) If language is your biggest barrier, pick a country whose language you already speak. As this clearly includes English, Ireland if you want specifically EU, and UK if you just want the continent (mainly London, but I spent a long time in Cambridge tech sector). Germany may still be an option even without being a native speaker (depending on your skills), but with all the difficulty everyone has today with AI messing with job hunting, get the contract before considering a move.
  - fernly 8mo ago
    Not that hard if you are in young to middle years and have any job experience. I asked Perplexity "If an American citizen, a trained engineer with some experience, desired to work abroad in the EU or an English-first nation, what are some good websites to check?" I suggest you do the same -- the reply lists a dozen promising sites. https://www.perplexity.ai/search/if-an-american-citizen-a-train-9bmuP5N0TJmLMn3swnSbMw https://www.perplexity.ai/search/if-an-american-citizen-a-tr...

coldtea 8mo ago

>I don't see how any rational investor could still see US companies as a secure investment. Investors just care for the returns. As long as they can identify and bet on the side doing the bribing, they're fine...

ilamont 8mo ago

> When the rule of law degrades into pay-to-play politics, the inevitable result is a mass exodus of both capital and top-tier talent. No, it's not inevitable. What you've described is the way a lot of authoritarian states work, such as China. China attracts plenty of capital and external talent, including people from other countries such as Taiwan and the United States. You have be all-in on the CCP's rules, though. Vietnam operates in a similar way. Untold billions of FDI in the past 20 years from Japan, the U.S. and China. Talk with top executives there, and you'll frequently find close connections or family ties with leaders in Hanoi.

iririririr 8mo ago
china attract zero capital in the sense being discussed here, which would be VC. it attract lots of capex expenses like factories.

danielparsons 8mo ago

Bit melodramatic. The US still has the most talent, most capital, and best property protections of anywhere in the world. Name a country that (1) doesn't have any quid-pro-quo system with the govt, and (2) has pro-growth pro-capitalist policies.

RichEO 8mo ago
I wonder if maybe those two things have a causal relationship

bootsmann 8mo ago

This has already happened, its a key reason why the dollar is down 15% since the new admin took power.

amarant 8mo ago

The logical conclusion to your analysis is that Musks companies must be a great investment. Musk already owns most of the government after all. And the US is still among the largest economies in the world.

Aeolun 8mo ago

> I don't see how any rational investor could still see US companies as a secure investment I the problem is that from the companies’s side you just have a whole country to exploit, so I’m fairly certain the investments still work.

direwolf20 8mo ago

That means bribing the government is a very secure and profitable investment to invest in.

cermicelli 8mo ago

Well you think corruption is bad for the rich investors? I hope I can find that kind of optimism and live in a more corrupt world. Tldr; Rich people can bribe more, hence Rich people can be more rich+er.. I think a lot of poor tech multi-millionaires hate this in US but all rich billionaires must be loving it...

therobots927 8mo ago

The rational investors have been moving their money outside the US for approximately 15 months. Compare the chart of VEA to VTI.

mountainriver 8mo ago

This has pretty much always been happening, it’s more brazen under Trump