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So in summary OpenAI are basing their valuation of 285 billion on the moat of 'users won't be arsed to download a different app'??? Seems optimistic when there

So in summary OpenAI are basing their valuation of 285 billion on the moat of 'users won't be arsed to download a different app'??? Seems optimistic when there is very little intrinsic stickness due to learning the UI or network effects. Perhaps a little bit chat history - but not 285 billions worth. Also completely ignoring the fact that most devices things will start to come with the same features directly built into the device/app - and the largest market will be as a commodity backend api that the eventually users won't know or care if it's a google or openai model. As I see it, they need to be doing stuff nobody else can ( in either price or performance ), otherwise it's hard to justify the valuation.

graemep 8mo ago
It have worked for Google for years, and that was without even the barrier of download in app, just going to a different URL.
- kergonath 8mo ago
  Google was clearly superior fo a long time. They got close to 90% before enshitification started in earnest. We are not at that stage yet with AI chatbots. Also, Google benefited from being the default on mainstream OSes. When people have to download an application, getting one or the other does not take more effort. Yes, OpenAI being tightly integrated within Windows, Android, and iOS would be a moat. That’s not the case and it is unlikely to happen. Google will go with their own and Apple won’t put itself in a situation where they are reliant on a single company, they got burned enough times.
  - DrScientist 8mo ago
    Exactly - it was better for a long time. Also which search engine was the default was a massive factor - that's why Google paid for that. If Google hadn't controlled Chrome, and or paid for defaults - they could have pretty much lost all their traffic overnight - ( if they weren't better ).
  - cowhax 8mo ago
    We are at a point though where when average people think of "asking AI", they instinctively think of ChatGPT. That's a big thing. All OpenAI has to do is not fall behind too much to the point where an alternative can generate enough hype to take the crown (see AltaVista and Google)
- b3kart 8mo ago
  Don’t you think that’s because Google was objectively a head above everyone other search engine for a long time?
  - azan_ 8mo ago
    It’s not anymore (actually google is awful now) and people are still using it
    - DrScientist 8mo ago
      As Chrome has about 75% market share across all platforms - probably 90% of those use the google default. As far as I'm aware OpenAI doesn't control any defaults for which AIChat service to use.
      - logical_proof 8mo ago
        Copilot?
      - 111111101101 8mo ago
        It took Google a decade before they released Chrome so OpenAI has plenty of time to have a Chrome moment. Maybe it'll be something that comes from the OpenClaw acqui-hires?
        DrScientist 8mo ago
        During that time - as was pointed out elsewhere - Google search was simply way better than the alternatives - embarrassingly so. It also paid the Mozilla foundation lots of money to be the default.
        arw0n 8mo ago
        Google wasn't bleeding money like crazy at the time. Google was operating in a post-hype cycle. We are most likely somewhere in an epsilon around the peak of the AI hype and OpenAI is more comparable to AOL or Yahoo. One striking similarity is the inability to innovate themselves, instead relying on copying others or acquiring. The OpenClaw guy is surely a decent product person, but OpenClaw did not innovate in any real sense. He was just pushing an existing idea to the limit without any concern for quality or security. It had its hype moment, it inspired a bunch of people, and might find its own niche, but it is a flavor of the week kind of thing. I've been getting a lot more cold-calls by non-technical people in the last few weeks thanks to it. Congratulations, the quality threshold that justifies my response rose in equal measure. Nothing was gained, just a lot of tokens spent.
- array_key_first 8mo ago
  All of googles products are unique in some way and have genuine moats. The search engine was the best. The ecosystem was there and pretty good. Docs had online collaboration. And on and on.
- zadikian 8mo ago
  Search is easy to monetize with ads and less expensive to operate. Unless AI services can do the same thing, they'll have to charge money at some point, and then customers will look for the cheapest.
adithyassekhar 8mo ago
[flagged]
- fatata123 8mo ago
  You’re comparing a single app with an entire ecosystem and app marketplace. Poor comparison.
- DrScientist 8mo ago
  Sorry - being dim - I don't get that.
  - WarmWash 8mo ago
    Apple has offered products with little value over competitors for a long time now, but they still get to command a large premium on their products because "the vibes are right". When engineers analyze things they look at the specs, stats, and metrics. When consumers analyze things they look at what others are doing, feel for vibes, roll into the convenience, and stick with the familiar.
    - jasonjmcghee 8mo ago
      > Apple has offered products with little value over competitors I'm genuinely surprised by this comment. For example, I thought there was universal sentiment that apple silicon / M-series computers are pretty unmatched.
      - WarmWash 8mo ago
        The overwhelming volume of Apples sales comes from people who wouldn't notice if their device was running 2016 level hardware.
        jasonjmcghee 8mo ago
        If software didn't keep getting worse this might be true but the average consumer notices if their computer is slow or dies too quickly.
carlosjobim 8mo ago
You'd be surprised that most people don't find any pleasure in comparing and trying out different software. They're looking for something which works and ChatGPT is just an amazing product. People aren't going to look for something else unless it breaks for some reason. Most people who have a vehicle aren't trying out different motor oils, or comparing every month if they should change model, etc. > As I see it, they need to be doing stuff nobody else can ( in either price or performance ), otherwise it's hard to justify the valuation. Do you have a car? What does it do that no other car does?
deleted 8mo ago
[deleted]
ggregoire 8mo ago
> the moat of 'users won't be arsed to download a different app'??? don't even need to download anything, just open your browser and go to google.com to use gemini last week-end, I've seen a non-tech friend who previously used chatGPT on his phone, just go on google to ask stuff to the AI (they have no idea it's gemini and it doesn't matter) if you are not looking for having some kind of relationship with an AI (from what I understand people use chatGPT for this use case), but just looking for an AI to search stuff, then in my opinion you can't beat google search + gemini summary all at once for free with a single prompt
singleshot_ 8mo ago
Directing your attention to Coca-Cola

graemep 8mo ago

It have worked for Google for years, and that was without even the barrier of download in app, just going to a different URL.

kergonath 8mo ago
Google was clearly superior fo a long time. They got close to 90% before enshitification started in earnest. We are not at that stage yet with AI chatbots. Also, Google benefited from being the default on mainstream OSes. When people have to download an application, getting one or the other does not take more effort. Yes, OpenAI being tightly integrated within Windows, Android, and iOS would be a moat. That’s not the case and it is unlikely to happen. Google will go with their own and Apple won’t put itself in a situation where they are reliant on a single company, they got burned enough times.
- DrScientist 8mo ago
  Exactly - it was better for a long time. Also which search engine was the default was a massive factor - that's why Google paid for that. If Google hadn't controlled Chrome, and or paid for defaults - they could have pretty much lost all their traffic overnight - ( if they weren't better ).
- cowhax 8mo ago
  We are at a point though where when average people think of "asking AI", they instinctively think of ChatGPT. That's a big thing. All OpenAI has to do is not fall behind too much to the point where an alternative can generate enough hype to take the crown (see AltaVista and Google)
b3kart 8mo ago
Don’t you think that’s because Google was objectively a head above everyone other search engine for a long time?
- azan_ 8mo ago
  It’s not anymore (actually google is awful now) and people are still using it
  - DrScientist 8mo ago
    As Chrome has about 75% market share across all platforms - probably 90% of those use the google default. As far as I'm aware OpenAI doesn't control any defaults for which AIChat service to use.
    - logical_proof 8mo ago
      Copilot?
    - 111111101101 8mo ago
      It took Google a decade before they released Chrome so OpenAI has plenty of time to have a Chrome moment. Maybe it'll be something that comes from the OpenClaw acqui-hires?
      - DrScientist 8mo ago
        During that time - as was pointed out elsewhere - Google search was simply way better than the alternatives - embarrassingly so. It also paid the Mozilla foundation lots of money to be the default.
      - arw0n 8mo ago
        Google wasn't bleeding money like crazy at the time. Google was operating in a post-hype cycle. We are most likely somewhere in an epsilon around the peak of the AI hype and OpenAI is more comparable to AOL or Yahoo. One striking similarity is the inability to innovate themselves, instead relying on copying others or acquiring. The OpenClaw guy is surely a decent product person, but OpenClaw did not innovate in any real sense. He was just pushing an existing idea to the limit without any concern for quality or security. It had its hype moment, it inspired a bunch of people, and might find its own niche, but it is a flavor of the week kind of thing. I've been getting a lot more cold-calls by non-technical people in the last few weeks thanks to it. Congratulations, the quality threshold that justifies my response rose in equal measure. Nothing was gained, just a lot of tokens spent.
array_key_first 8mo ago
All of googles products are unique in some way and have genuine moats. The search engine was the best. The ecosystem was there and pretty good. Docs had online collaboration. And on and on.
zadikian 8mo ago
Search is easy to monetize with ads and less expensive to operate. Unless AI services can do the same thing, they'll have to charge money at some point, and then customers will look for the cheapest.

adithyassekhar 8mo ago

[flagged]

fatata123 8mo ago
You’re comparing a single app with an entire ecosystem and app marketplace. Poor comparison.
DrScientist 8mo ago
Sorry - being dim - I don't get that.
- WarmWash 8mo ago
  Apple has offered products with little value over competitors for a long time now, but they still get to command a large premium on their products because "the vibes are right". When engineers analyze things they look at the specs, stats, and metrics. When consumers analyze things they look at what others are doing, feel for vibes, roll into the convenience, and stick with the familiar.
  - jasonjmcghee 8mo ago
    > Apple has offered products with little value over competitors I'm genuinely surprised by this comment. For example, I thought there was universal sentiment that apple silicon / M-series computers are pretty unmatched.
    - WarmWash 8mo ago
      The overwhelming volume of Apples sales comes from people who wouldn't notice if their device was running 2016 level hardware.
      - jasonjmcghee 8mo ago
        If software didn't keep getting worse this might be true but the average consumer notices if their computer is slow or dies too quickly.

carlosjobim 8mo ago

You'd be surprised that most people don't find any pleasure in comparing and trying out different software. They're looking for something which works and ChatGPT is just an amazing product. People aren't going to look for something else unless it breaks for some reason. Most people who have a vehicle aren't trying out different motor oils, or comparing every month if they should change model, etc. > As I see it, they need to be doing stuff nobody else can ( in either price or performance ), otherwise it's hard to justify the valuation. Do you have a car? What does it do that no other car does?

deleted 8mo ago

[deleted]

ggregoire 8mo ago

> the moat of 'users won't be arsed to download a different app'??? don't even need to download anything, just open your browser and go to google.com to use gemini last week-end, I've seen a non-tech friend who previously used chatGPT on his phone, just go on google to ask stuff to the AI (they have no idea it's gemini and it doesn't matter) if you are not looking for having some kind of relationship with an AI (from what I understand people use chatGPT for this use case), but just looking for an AI to search stuff, then in my opinion you can't beat google search + gemini summary all at once for free with a single prompt

singleshot_ 8mo ago

Directing your attention to Coca-Cola