7 ms·

It's also been a great year for oil production which has reached new record highs in the US! [0] 0. https://www.energy.gov/state-american-energy-promises-made-

It's also been a great year for oil production which has reached new record highs in the US! [0] 0. https://www.energy.gov/state-american-energy-promises-made-promises-kept https://www.energy.gov/state-american-energy-promises-made-p...

toomuchtodo 8mo ago
There is global oil oversupply of ~2M-3.7M barrels/day. China destroys ~1M barrels/day of global oil demand for every 24 months of EV production. Iran needs $164/barrel to break even on their budget, $86/barrel for Saudi Arabia, ~$60 for US shale (per Bloomberg). China has already potentially hit peak oil and ~>50% of new vehicle sales are battery electric or plug in hybrids. Oil is over, regardless of this admin's propaganda on the topic. If we want to speed up the US EV transition, we push refineries into retirement faster, pushing up refined gasoline prices. No one will build new refineries due to stranded asset risk, so those that remain are on borrowed time. Oil analysts say there is a supply glut — why that hasn't translated to lower prices this year - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-analysts-say-there-is-a-supply-glut--why-that-hasnt-translated-to-lower-prices-this-year-150108444.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-analysts-say-there-is-a-s... - February 22nd, 2026 ("Coming into 2026, the consensus view among oil analysts was that the crude market was entering a period of deep oversupply, likely to keep depressing prices throughout the year. In 2025, oil prices fell by roughly 20% as the glut widened.") US drillers cut oil rigs to lowest in four years, Baker Hughes says - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-drillers-cut-oil-gas-rigs-first-time-four-weeks-baker-hughes-says-2025-11-26/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-drillers-cut-oil-... | https://archive.today/84kwl https://archive.today/84kwl - November 26th, 2025 China’s shrinking oil footprint: How electric vehicle adoption is shaping China’s oil consumption - https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/chinas-shrinking-oil-footprint-how-electric-vehicle-adoption-shaping-chinas-oil https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/chinas-shrinking-oil-footprin... - November 4th, 2025 North American Oil Refineries and Pipelines - https://www.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=5e7f84d84b4542f09b17c398a90ec5be https://www.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=5e7f84d84b... (no current oil commodity exposure)
- whatever1 8mo ago
  Gasoline might be on decline (but the gas car fleet will take decades to turn over), but for literally everything else there is no viable alternative. Trucks, ships, airplanes, freight trains, even heating for older buildings. So no, we need our refineries for a good part of this century. Likely we will keep just the integrated ones (chemical + fuels).
  - toomuchtodo 8mo ago
    Whether we need them will be a function if they are financially sustainable. No profit, and they will close (as is the case with the Valero Benicia refinery in Northern California, shuttering April 2026). That is the linchpin to push fossil fuels to failure faster, find economically vulnerable and/or unsustainable fossil infrastructure and push it to failure (fossil supply chain death spiral). Because if no one will pay for it, it will not continue to exist, and the demand base to spread fixed costs across will only shrink into the future, pushing prices to unaffordability compared to non fossil alternatives. (think in systems)
    - deleted 8mo ago
      [deleted]
  - newyankee 8mo ago
    India has effectively electrified almost all of its rail transit. USA or other countries do not need to electrify all lines and the long tail is too long but even the major ones can bring in big benefits. No need to even get China in this equation.
    - toomuchtodo 8mo ago
      To note, India also has three times domestic PV demand (~50GW/year) manufacturing capacity (~150GW/year) live. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/indias-electrotech-fast-track-where-china-built-on-coal-india-is-building-on-sun/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/indias-electrotech-... India's Solar Manufacturing Excesses Turn a Boom into a Glut - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47050286 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47050286 - February 2025

toomuchtodo 8mo ago

There is global oil oversupply of ~2M-3.7M barrels/day. China destroys ~1M barrels/day of global oil demand for every 24 months of EV production. Iran needs $164/barrel to break even on their budget, $86/barrel for Saudi Arabia, ~$60 for US shale (per Bloomberg). China has already potentially hit peak oil and ~>50% of new vehicle sales are battery electric or plug in hybrids. Oil is over, regardless of this admin's propaganda on the topic. If we want to speed up the US EV transition, we push refineries into retirement faster, pushing up refined gasoline prices. No one will build new refineries due to stranded asset risk, so those that remain are on borrowed time. Oil analysts say there is a supply glut — why that hasn't translated to lower prices this year - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-analysts-say-there-is-a-supply-glut--why-that-hasnt-translated-to-lower-prices-this-year-150108444.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-analysts-say-there-is-a-s... - February 22nd, 2026 ("Coming into 2026, the consensus view among oil analysts was that the crude market was entering a period of deep oversupply, likely to keep depressing prices throughout the year. In 2025, oil prices fell by roughly 20% as the glut widened.") US drillers cut oil rigs to lowest in four years, Baker Hughes says - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-drillers-cut-oil-gas-rigs-first-time-four-weeks-baker-hughes-says-2025-11-26/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-drillers-cut-oil-... | https://archive.today/84kwl https://archive.today/84kwl - November 26th, 2025 China’s shrinking oil footprint: How electric vehicle adoption is shaping China’s oil consumption - https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/chinas-shrinking-oil-footprint-how-electric-vehicle-adoption-shaping-chinas-oil https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/chinas-shrinking-oil-footprin... - November 4th, 2025 North American Oil Refineries and Pipelines - https://www.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=5e7f84d84b4542f09b17c398a90ec5be https://www.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=5e7f84d84b... (no current oil commodity exposure)

whatever1 8mo ago
Gasoline might be on decline (but the gas car fleet will take decades to turn over), but for literally everything else there is no viable alternative. Trucks, ships, airplanes, freight trains, even heating for older buildings. So no, we need our refineries for a good part of this century. Likely we will keep just the integrated ones (chemical + fuels).
- toomuchtodo 8mo ago
  Whether we need them will be a function if they are financially sustainable. No profit, and they will close (as is the case with the Valero Benicia refinery in Northern California, shuttering April 2026). That is the linchpin to push fossil fuels to failure faster, find economically vulnerable and/or unsustainable fossil infrastructure and push it to failure (fossil supply chain death spiral). Because if no one will pay for it, it will not continue to exist, and the demand base to spread fixed costs across will only shrink into the future, pushing prices to unaffordability compared to non fossil alternatives. (think in systems)
  - deleted 8mo ago
    [deleted]
- newyankee 8mo ago
  India has effectively electrified almost all of its rail transit. USA or other countries do not need to electrify all lines and the long tail is too long but even the major ones can bring in big benefits. No need to even get China in this equation.
  - toomuchtodo 8mo ago
    To note, India also has three times domestic PV demand (~50GW/year) manufacturing capacity (~150GW/year) live. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/indias-electrotech-fast-track-where-china-built-on-coal-india-is-building-on-sun/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/indias-electrotech-... India's Solar Manufacturing Excesses Turn a Boom into a Glut - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47050286 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47050286 - February 2025