4 ms·

If investors leave, where will they go though? Most of EU economy isn't doing amazing right now either, with the economies of France and Germany being propped u

If investors leave, where will they go though? Most of EU economy isn't doing amazing right now either, with the economies of France and Germany being propped up on life support by government spending, and there's more political turmoil at the horizon. Asia?

microtonal 8mo ago
Large European pension funds are rapidly decreasing (as rapid as a pension fund can without causing too much panic, devaluing remaining assets). E.g. some large pension funds have removed 1/4th of their investments in the US in less than a year. That is pretty unheard of. (Most of them are reinvesting in Europe.)
- joe_mamba 8mo ago
  >some large pension funds have removed 1/4th of their investments in the US in less than a year. I saw the news about the danish fund dropping some of their US investment and on closer inspection, in absolute terms it was a drop in the bucket. Mostly an optics maneuvre.
  - disgruntledphd2 8mo ago
    Again, non dollar investors are flat since start of 2025. This isn't just politicisation (although that's part of it), it's that other markets are doing better than the US for now. This will be a slow process, but the direction seems pretty clear (I fully expect to see a major economy introduce capital controls within the next twenty years).
    - joe_mamba 8mo ago
      > it's that other markets are doing better than the US for now. Which? US currently has a rocky status due to Trump's interference, but Trump will pass while the likes of EU and Japan won't be able to fix their structural issues of low birthrates, crazy high debt welfare speeding, etc.
      - disgruntledphd2 8mo ago
        > Which? US currently has a rocky status due to Trump's interference In non-dollar terms, the US markets have been flat since 2025 (so basically since "liberation day"). > fix their structural issues of low birthrates, This is a problem basically everywhere. It's definitely worse in Europe than in the US, but the US is on the same trajectory (modulo immigration). > crazy high debt welfare speeding Where exactly are you talking about? The US government has been spending more than it takes in for the past decade at least, mostly on entitlements (i.e. welfare spending).
  - microtonal 8mo ago
    A single Dutch pension fund that was much larger (ABP, IIRC one or two orders of magnitude) retracted 1/4th (10 billion). But they only found out after journalists checked out a year report. Most pension funds just don't talk about it, because (1) they do not want the value of their assets drop too much as long as they haven't moved them; and (2) they do not want to draw the ire of the Trump administration in the meanwhile.
    - joe_mamba 8mo ago
      So what you're saying is, we can buy the dip?
disgruntledphd2 8mo ago
> the economies of France and Germany being propped up on life support by government spending The US government is running (and has been for at least a decade now) a substantial deficit, which is basically propping up the economy with government support. > there's more political turmoil at the horizon Again, look to your own house. Even if you ignore all the Trump noise, the attempted politicisation of the Fed is very dangerous for the US economy. > Asia? Asia & Europe. It's beyond absurd that the US stock markets have 65% of total value, and was never going to last forever. All this craziness from the government is just speeding up something that was always going to happen.
- joe_mamba 8mo ago
  >Even if you ignore all the Trump noise, the attempted politicisation of the Fed is very dangerous for the US economy. Yes, but Trump is a passing issue that will eventually go away, and won't be able to fuck with tarries and the economy anymore just so his friends can do insider trading. >Asia & Europe. why do you think so? Japan's economy has no great future prospects, and neither EU's with many German bankruptcies and companies relocating abroad. Chinese companies and workers outside of the largest metro areas have bad time too.
  - disgruntledphd2 8mo ago
    > why do you think so? Japan's economy has no great future prospects, and neither EU's with many German bankruptcies and companies relocating abroad. Chinese companies and workers outside of the largest metro areas have bad time too. I think Europe has a bunch of issues, mostly downstream of energy prices. It's basically all the low value added manufacturing (fertiliser etc) that is leaving. This is a real problem which needs to be fixed (the energy costs, that is). At least we're not trying to kill green energy. Look man, I think the US will be ~fine, but a situation where the US markets account for 65% of world equity value is not going to last forever, and I think it will become apparent as this changes how much else needs to change to benefit the American people.

microtonal 8mo ago

Large European pension funds are rapidly decreasing (as rapid as a pension fund can without causing too much panic, devaluing remaining assets). E.g. some large pension funds have removed 1/4th of their investments in the US in less than a year. That is pretty unheard of. (Most of them are reinvesting in Europe.)

joe_mamba 8mo ago
>some large pension funds have removed 1/4th of their investments in the US in less than a year. I saw the news about the danish fund dropping some of their US investment and on closer inspection, in absolute terms it was a drop in the bucket. Mostly an optics maneuvre.
- disgruntledphd2 8mo ago
  Again, non dollar investors are flat since start of 2025. This isn't just politicisation (although that's part of it), it's that other markets are doing better than the US for now. This will be a slow process, but the direction seems pretty clear (I fully expect to see a major economy introduce capital controls within the next twenty years).
  - joe_mamba 8mo ago
    > it's that other markets are doing better than the US for now. Which? US currently has a rocky status due to Trump's interference, but Trump will pass while the likes of EU and Japan won't be able to fix their structural issues of low birthrates, crazy high debt welfare speeding, etc.
    - disgruntledphd2 8mo ago
      > Which? US currently has a rocky status due to Trump's interference In non-dollar terms, the US markets have been flat since 2025 (so basically since "liberation day"). > fix their structural issues of low birthrates, This is a problem basically everywhere. It's definitely worse in Europe than in the US, but the US is on the same trajectory (modulo immigration). > crazy high debt welfare speeding Where exactly are you talking about? The US government has been spending more than it takes in for the past decade at least, mostly on entitlements (i.e. welfare spending).
- microtonal 8mo ago
  A single Dutch pension fund that was much larger (ABP, IIRC one or two orders of magnitude) retracted 1/4th (10 billion). But they only found out after journalists checked out a year report. Most pension funds just don't talk about it, because (1) they do not want the value of their assets drop too much as long as they haven't moved them; and (2) they do not want to draw the ire of the Trump administration in the meanwhile.
  - joe_mamba 8mo ago
    So what you're saying is, we can buy the dip?

disgruntledphd2 8mo ago

> the economies of France and Germany being propped up on life support by government spending The US government is running (and has been for at least a decade now) a substantial deficit, which is basically propping up the economy with government support. > there's more political turmoil at the horizon Again, look to your own house. Even if you ignore all the Trump noise, the attempted politicisation of the Fed is very dangerous for the US economy. > Asia? Asia & Europe. It's beyond absurd that the US stock markets have 65% of total value, and was never going to last forever. All this craziness from the government is just speeding up something that was always going to happen.

joe_mamba 8mo ago
>Even if you ignore all the Trump noise, the attempted politicisation of the Fed is very dangerous for the US economy. Yes, but Trump is a passing issue that will eventually go away, and won't be able to fuck with tarries and the economy anymore just so his friends can do insider trading. >Asia & Europe. why do you think so? Japan's economy has no great future prospects, and neither EU's with many German bankruptcies and companies relocating abroad. Chinese companies and workers outside of the largest metro areas have bad time too.
- disgruntledphd2 8mo ago
  > why do you think so? Japan's economy has no great future prospects, and neither EU's with many German bankruptcies and companies relocating abroad. Chinese companies and workers outside of the largest metro areas have bad time too. I think Europe has a bunch of issues, mostly downstream of energy prices. It's basically all the low value added manufacturing (fertiliser etc) that is leaving. This is a real problem which needs to be fixed (the energy costs, that is). At least we're not trying to kill green energy. Look man, I think the US will be ~fine, but a situation where the US markets account for 65% of world equity value is not going to last forever, and I think it will become apparent as this changes how much else needs to change to benefit the American people.