4 ms·

I am not saying this to be sarcastic - the problem is that people from OpenAI/Antrhopic are saying things like superintelligence in 3 years, or boris saying cod

by preommr 8mo ago

I am not saying this to be sarcastic - the problem is that people from OpenAI/Antrhopic are saying things like superintelligence in 3 years, or boris saying coding is solved and that 100% of his code is written by AI. It's not good enough to just say oreo ceos say we need to more oreos. There's a real grey area where these tools are useful in some capacity, and in that confusion we're spending billions. Too may people are saying too conflicting things and chaos is never good for clear long-term growth. Either that 20 years is completelly inapplicable to AI, or we're in for a world of hurt. There's no in between given the kinds of bets that have been made.

co_king_5 8mo ago
[dead]
- EA-3167 8mo ago
  It’s amazing that economic analysis can be dismissed by “feeling the AGI”. You might as well be telling people to “HODL”
- chrysoprace 8mo ago
  What does that mean? By what metric do you measure "AGI", whatever that means? Industry definitions are incredibly vague, perhaps intentionally so, with no benchmarks to define how a model, harness, or other technology might achieve "AGI". They have no intelligence, and can't even reason that you need to take your car to the car wash to have it washed[0]. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47031580 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47031580
  - co_king_5 8mo ago
    [dead]
    - albatross79 8mo ago
      You seem to be doing a lot of feeling, have you tried thinking? It's pretty cool when you need a break from feeling.
    - testbjjl 8mo ago
      If somehow Claude became sentient that would be sci-fi. One day it’s wrangling CSS and Spring Boot Controllers and the next it’s telling you opinions it developed through its own experiences on programming languages. Not sure that’s on the near horizon, but it’s definitely impressive technology.
    - twocommits 8mo ago
      That's what she said.
  - conception 8mo ago
    A link to a page where the top comment talks about how a major model doesn’t get stuck on the question doesn’t seem like much of a flex.
- bigstrat2003 8mo ago
  > I'm going to be honest, you can feel the AGI when you use newer agentic tools like OpenClaw or Claude. You're right. I can feel how far away it is and how these tools will in no way be capable of getting us there.
  - maplethorpe 8mo ago
    Are you using Claude Opus 4.6?
- lanstin 8mo ago
  Have you ever tried to trick an LLM? Did you have trouble?
- arctic-true 8mo ago
  Researchers looked at GPT-3 in 2023 and saw “sparks of AGI”. The saying “feel the AGI” became widespread not long after, if I’m remembering right. We’ve been saying AGI is right around the corner for a while now. And of course, if you predict the end of the world every day, you’ll eventually be right. But for the moment, what we have is an exceptionally powerful coding assistant that can also speed up entry-level work in various other white collar industries. That is earth-shattering, paradigm-shifting. But given how competitive and expensive the AI game has become, that is not enough, so it needs to be “superintelligence” - and it’s just not.
  - yowayb 8mo ago
    iirc, when Eliza came out, many people briefly believed it was sentient
    - testbjjl 8mo ago
      https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/google-lamda-chatbot-sentient-ai/661322/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/google-lam...
  - dougb5 8mo ago
    Minor correction: "sparks of AGI" was in reference to GPT-4, which came out 5 months later in 2024. (https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.12712 https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.12712)
    - arctic-true 8mo ago
      Ah, that’s my mistake. Thank you. I saw 2023, I thought GPT-3. Even still, people talk about GPT-4 today like it was a quaint little demo. It was a magnificent achievement, it scared the pants off of a lot of people, and sparked a new round of “is AI conscious?” discourse.
- AnimalMuppet 8mo ago
  > Superintelligence in 3 years doesn't really sound that crazy given how quickly I can write code with Claude. I mean we're 90%-95% of the way there already. Yeah? So you must have a clear idea of where "there" is, and of the route from here to there? Forgive me my skepticism, but I don't believe you. I don't believe that you actually know.
  - testbjjl 8mo ago
    The GO may be talking about Wordpress or something less than embedded code running on the hadron collider.
ozim 8mo ago
AI companies don’t have 20 years, they have max 5 years where they have to turn to profit. They don’t have time to wait for all the companies to pick up use of AI tooling in their own pace. So they lie and try to manufacture demand. Well demand is there but they have to manufacture FOMO so that demand materializes now and not in 20 or 10 years.
- rfv6723 8mo ago
  This outlook is as short-sighted as the 2000 fiber optic bust. Critics then thought overcapacity meant the end, yet that infrastructure eventually created the modern internet. Capital does not walk away from a fundamental shift just because of one market correction. While specific companies may fail, the long-term value of the technology ensures that investment will continue far beyond a five-year window.
  - toomuchtodo 8mo ago
    How much capital was wiped out for it to be cheap after the bust? Someone is going to eat the exuberance loss in the near term, even if there is long term value.
  - afavour 8mo ago
    But fiber optic created in 2000 is still very usable in 2026. AI hardware purchases in 2026 is going to out of date very quickly by comparison.
    - rfv6723 8mo ago
      The massive investment in power grids and data centers provides a permanent physical backbone that outlives any specific silicon generation. This infrastructure serves as a durable shell for the model design knowledge and chip architectural IP gained through each iteration. Capital is effectively funding a structural moat built on energy access and engineering mastery.
      - DrewADesign 8mo ago
Terr_ 8mo ago
It's a "Motte and Bailey" system [0], where the extreme "AI will do everything for you" claim keeps getting thrown around to try to get investors to throw in cash, but then somehow it transmutes into "all technologies took time to mature stop being mean to me." To be fair, it isn't necessarily the same people doing both at once. Sometimes there are two groups under the same general banner, where one makes the big-claims, and another responds to perceived criticism of their lesser-claim. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motte-and-bailey_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motte-and-bailey_fallacy
flowerthoughts 8mo ago
> the problem is that people from OpenAI/Antrhopic are saying things like superintelligence in 3 years An even bigger problem is that people listen to them even after they say rationally implausible things. When even Yann LeCunn is putting his arms up and saying "this approach won't work," it's pretty bad.

by preommr 8mo ago

co_king_5 8mo ago

[dead]

EA-3167 8mo ago
It’s amazing that economic analysis can be dismissed by “feeling the AGI”. You might as well be telling people to “HODL”
chrysoprace 8mo ago
What does that mean? By what metric do you measure "AGI", whatever that means? Industry definitions are incredibly vague, perhaps intentionally so, with no benchmarks to define how a model, harness, or other technology might achieve "AGI". They have no intelligence, and can't even reason that you need to take your car to the car wash to have it washed[0]. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47031580 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47031580
- co_king_5 8mo ago
  [dead]
  - albatross79 8mo ago
    You seem to be doing a lot of feeling, have you tried thinking? It's pretty cool when you need a break from feeling.
  - testbjjl 8mo ago
    If somehow Claude became sentient that would be sci-fi. One day it’s wrangling CSS and Spring Boot Controllers and the next it’s telling you opinions it developed through its own experiences on programming languages. Not sure that’s on the near horizon, but it’s definitely impressive technology.
  - twocommits 8mo ago
    That's what she said.
- conception 8mo ago
  A link to a page where the top comment talks about how a major model doesn’t get stuck on the question doesn’t seem like much of a flex.
bigstrat2003 8mo ago
> I'm going to be honest, you can feel the AGI when you use newer agentic tools like OpenClaw or Claude. You're right. I can feel how far away it is and how these tools will in no way be capable of getting us there.
- maplethorpe 8mo ago
  Are you using Claude Opus 4.6?
lanstin 8mo ago
Have you ever tried to trick an LLM? Did you have trouble?
arctic-true 8mo ago
Researchers looked at GPT-3 in 2023 and saw “sparks of AGI”. The saying “feel the AGI” became widespread not long after, if I’m remembering right. We’ve been saying AGI is right around the corner for a while now. And of course, if you predict the end of the world every day, you’ll eventually be right. But for the moment, what we have is an exceptionally powerful coding assistant that can also speed up entry-level work in various other white collar industries. That is earth-shattering, paradigm-shifting. But given how competitive and expensive the AI game has become, that is not enough, so it needs to be “superintelligence” - and it’s just not.
- yowayb 8mo ago
  iirc, when Eliza came out, many people briefly believed it was sentient
  - testbjjl 8mo ago
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/google-lamda-chatbot-sentient-ai/661322/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/google-lam...
- dougb5 8mo ago
  Minor correction: "sparks of AGI" was in reference to GPT-4, which came out 5 months later in 2024. (https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.12712 https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.12712)
  - arctic-true 8mo ago
    Ah, that’s my mistake. Thank you. I saw 2023, I thought GPT-3. Even still, people talk about GPT-4 today like it was a quaint little demo. It was a magnificent achievement, it scared the pants off of a lot of people, and sparked a new round of “is AI conscious?” discourse.
AnimalMuppet 8mo ago
> Superintelligence in 3 years doesn't really sound that crazy given how quickly I can write code with Claude. I mean we're 90%-95% of the way there already. Yeah? So you must have a clear idea of where "there" is, and of the route from here to there? Forgive me my skepticism, but I don't believe you. I don't believe that you actually know.
- testbjjl 8mo ago
  The GO may be talking about Wordpress or something less than embedded code running on the hadron collider.

ozim 8mo ago

AI companies don’t have 20 years, they have max 5 years where they have to turn to profit. They don’t have time to wait for all the companies to pick up use of AI tooling in their own pace. So they lie and try to manufacture demand. Well demand is there but they have to manufacture FOMO so that demand materializes now and not in 20 or 10 years.

rfv6723 8mo ago
This outlook is as short-sighted as the 2000 fiber optic bust. Critics then thought overcapacity meant the end, yet that infrastructure eventually created the modern internet. Capital does not walk away from a fundamental shift just because of one market correction. While specific companies may fail, the long-term value of the technology ensures that investment will continue far beyond a five-year window.
- toomuchtodo 8mo ago
  How much capital was wiped out for it to be cheap after the bust? Someone is going to eat the exuberance loss in the near term, even if there is long term value.
- afavour 8mo ago
  But fiber optic created in 2000 is still very usable in 2026. AI hardware purchases in 2026 is going to out of date very quickly by comparison.
  - rfv6723 8mo ago
    The massive investment in power grids and data centers provides a permanent physical backbone that outlives any specific silicon generation. This infrastructure serves as a durable shell for the model design knowledge and chip architectural IP gained through each iteration. Capital is effectively funding a structural moat built on energy access and engineering mastery.
    - DrewADesign 8mo ago

Terr_ 8mo ago

It's a "Motte and Bailey" system [0], where the extreme "AI will do everything for you" claim keeps getting thrown around to try to get investors to throw in cash, but then somehow it transmutes into "all technologies took time to mature stop being mean to me." To be fair, it isn't necessarily the same people doing both at once. Sometimes there are two groups under the same general banner, where one makes the big-claims, and another responds to perceived criticism of their lesser-claim. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motte-and-bailey_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motte-and-bailey_fallacy

flowerthoughts 8mo ago

> the problem is that people from OpenAI/Antrhopic are saying things like superintelligence in 3 years An even bigger problem is that people listen to them even after they say rationally implausible things. When even Yann LeCunn is putting his arms up and saying "this approach won't work," it's pretty bad.