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I don’t think we can expect all workers at all companies to just adopt a new way of working. That’s not how competition works. If agentic AI is a good idea and

by fmbb 8mo ago

I don’t think we can expect all workers at all companies to just adopt a new way of working. That’s not how competition works. If agentic AI is a good idea and if it increases productivity we should expect to see some startup blowing everyone out of the water. I think we should be seeing it now if it makes you say ten times more productive. A lot of startups have had a year of agentic AI now to help them beat their competitors.

ej88 8mo ago
We're already seeing eye-watering, blistering growth from the new hot applied AI startups and labs Imo the wave of top down 'AI mandates' from incumbent companies is a direct result of the competitive pressure, although it probably wont work as well as the execs think it will that being said even Dario claims a 5-20% speedup from coding agents, 10x productivity only exists in microcosm prototypes, or if someone was so unskilled oneshotting a localhost web app is a 10x for them
- sjaiisba 8mo ago
  AI has been a lifesaver for my low performing coworkers. They’re still heavily reliant on reviews, but their output is up. One of the lowest output guys I ever worked with is a massive LinkedIn LLM promoter. Not sure how long it’ll last though. With the time I spend on reviews I could have done it myself, so if they don’t start learning…
  - HWR_14 8mo ago
    > With the time I spend on reviews I could have done it myself, so if they don’t start learning… Then? Your job is still to review their code. If they are your coworker, you can not fire them.
    - whoisthemachine 8mo ago
      Then just start rubber-stamping their code. Say you "vibe" read it.
      - bombolo 8mo ago
        [dead]
- bwestergard 8mo ago
  "eye-watering, blistering growth from the new hot applied AI startups and labs" Could you give us a few examples?
  - simonw 8mo ago
    Claude Cowork was apparently built in less than two weeks using Claude Code, and appears to be getting significant usage already.
    - sjaiisba 8mo ago
      Only a personal anecdote, but the humans I know that have used it are all aware of how buggy it is. It feels like it was made in 2 weeks. Which gets back to the outsourcing argument: it’s always been cheap to make buggy code. If we were able to solve this, outsourcing would have been ubiquitous. Maybe LLMs change the calculus here too?
    - bwestergard 8mo ago
      That's certainly a good example of a tool developed quickly thanks to AI assistance. But coding assistance tools must themselves be evaluated by what they produce. We won't see significant economic growth through using AI tools to build other AI tools recursively unless the there are companies using these tools to make enough money to justify the whole stack. I believe there are teams out there producing software that people are willing to pay for faster than they did before. But if we were on the verge of rapid economic growth, I would expect HN commenters to be able to rattle these off by the dozen.
  - ej88 8mo ago
    claude code 1B+ arr ant 10xing ARR, oai harvey legora sierra decagon 11labs glean(ish) base10(infra) modal(infra) gamma mercor(ish) parloa cognition regulated industries giving these companies 7/8-fig contracts less than 2 years from incorporation
simonw 8mo ago
OpenClaw went from first commit in late November to Super Bowl commercial (it's meant to be the tech behind that AI.com vaporware thing) in February. (Whether you think OpenClaw is good software is kind of beside the point.)
- fmbb 8mo ago
  It’s very much not beside the point. Productivity is measured in how much value you get out from the hours your workers put in.
  - falcor84 8mo ago
    But that only gets you to a philosophical argument about what "value" is. Many would argue that being able to get your thing into a Super Bowl commercial is extremely valuable. I definitely have never built anything that did. It's very much imperfect, but the only consistently agreed upon and useful definition of "value" we have in the West is monetary value, and in that sense, we have at least a few major examples of AI generating value rapidly.
    - fmbb 8mo ago
      OK but that also means VR was a success, and web 3, and NFTs.
      - falcor84 8mo ago
        Well, yes, these were definitely a success for some. And I personally still believe that VR will be a success in the longer-term. In any case, I agree with the grandparent post about the distinction between being successful and good.
- qudat 8mo ago
  OpenClaw is not going to be a thing in 6 months. The core idea might exist but that codebase is built on a house of cards and is being replicated in 10% of the code. I don’t think anyone is arguing against code agents being good at prototypes, which is a great feat, but most SWE work is built on maintaining code over time.

by fmbb 8mo ago

ej88 8mo ago

We're already seeing eye-watering, blistering growth from the new hot applied AI startups and labs Imo the wave of top down 'AI mandates' from incumbent companies is a direct result of the competitive pressure, although it probably wont work as well as the execs think it will that being said even Dario claims a 5-20% speedup from coding agents, 10x productivity only exists in microcosm prototypes, or if someone was so unskilled oneshotting a localhost web app is a 10x for them

sjaiisba 8mo ago
AI has been a lifesaver for my low performing coworkers. They’re still heavily reliant on reviews, but their output is up. One of the lowest output guys I ever worked with is a massive LinkedIn LLM promoter. Not sure how long it’ll last though. With the time I spend on reviews I could have done it myself, so if they don’t start learning…
- HWR_14 8mo ago
  > With the time I spend on reviews I could have done it myself, so if they don’t start learning… Then? Your job is still to review their code. If they are your coworker, you can not fire them.
  - whoisthemachine 8mo ago
    Then just start rubber-stamping their code. Say you "vibe" read it.
    - bombolo 8mo ago
      [dead]
bwestergard 8mo ago
"eye-watering, blistering growth from the new hot applied AI startups and labs" Could you give us a few examples?
- simonw 8mo ago
  Claude Cowork was apparently built in less than two weeks using Claude Code, and appears to be getting significant usage already.
  - sjaiisba 8mo ago
    Only a personal anecdote, but the humans I know that have used it are all aware of how buggy it is. It feels like it was made in 2 weeks. Which gets back to the outsourcing argument: it’s always been cheap to make buggy code. If we were able to solve this, outsourcing would have been ubiquitous. Maybe LLMs change the calculus here too?
  - bwestergard 8mo ago
    That's certainly a good example of a tool developed quickly thanks to AI assistance. But coding assistance tools must themselves be evaluated by what they produce. We won't see significant economic growth through using AI tools to build other AI tools recursively unless the there are companies using these tools to make enough money to justify the whole stack. I believe there are teams out there producing software that people are willing to pay for faster than they did before. But if we were on the verge of rapid economic growth, I would expect HN commenters to be able to rattle these off by the dozen.
- ej88 8mo ago
  claude code 1B+ arr ant 10xing ARR, oai harvey legora sierra decagon 11labs glean(ish) base10(infra) modal(infra) gamma mercor(ish) parloa cognition regulated industries giving these companies 7/8-fig contracts less than 2 years from incorporation

simonw 8mo ago

OpenClaw went from first commit in late November to Super Bowl commercial (it's meant to be the tech behind that AI.com vaporware thing) in February. (Whether you think OpenClaw is good software is kind of beside the point.)

fmbb 8mo ago
It’s very much not beside the point. Productivity is measured in how much value you get out from the hours your workers put in.
- falcor84 8mo ago
  But that only gets you to a philosophical argument about what "value" is. Many would argue that being able to get your thing into a Super Bowl commercial is extremely valuable. I definitely have never built anything that did. It's very much imperfect, but the only consistently agreed upon and useful definition of "value" we have in the West is monetary value, and in that sense, we have at least a few major examples of AI generating value rapidly.
  - fmbb 8mo ago
    OK but that also means VR was a success, and web 3, and NFTs.
    - falcor84 8mo ago
      Well, yes, these were definitely a success for some. And I personally still believe that VR will be a success in the longer-term. In any case, I agree with the grandparent post about the distinction between being successful and good.
qudat 8mo ago
OpenClaw is not going to be a thing in 6 months. The core idea might exist but that codebase is built on a house of cards and is being replicated in 10% of the code. I don’t think anyone is arguing against code agents being good at prototypes, which is a great feat, but most SWE work is built on maintaining code over time.