3 ms·

Most markets don't have three purchasers trying to corner the entire supply of one product.

Aurornis 8mo ago
Economic history is full of examples of demand shocks. This is not some unique situation that has never occurred before. This is actually a clean commodity price spike because it’s specifically not for market manipulation or financial engineering. It’s because demand for this product really did explode overnight.
- fao_ 8mo ago
  > This is actually a clean commodity price spike because it’s specifically not for market manipulation or financial engineering. It’s because demand for this product really did explode overnight. Based on how the same 3 billion has been circiling between Anthropic, OpenAI, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and a few other companies... I really doubt that this is the case, to be honest.
  - zerkten 8mo ago
    I think it's reasonable to distinguish which side drove this. RAM prices are going up but it's not engineered primarily by RAM manufacturers. They are naturally jumping on the bandwagon and responding, but they aren't the drivers. Of course, how they respond matters. They could make other choices. Over time we'll see how this goes because AI could cool and then RAM manufacturers end up in a spot where they choose to manipulate prices to keep them higher.
- Juliate 8mo ago
  By 3 buyers who have no known plan to finance the purchase orders they have made. Economic history is also full of examples of bubble bursts.
- browningstreet 8mo ago
  You're being exceedingly pedantic over the use of the colloquialism "DRAM tax" but then you allow "demand shocks". So yeah, everyone's shocked. Weird hill..
  - Aurornis 8mo ago
    Demand shock is not a colloquialism. It’s an real economic term that describes the situation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demand_shock https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demand_shock Tax is also an economic term, which is not what’s happening. Calling it a “tax on consumers” doesn’t make sense because any data centers buying RAM right now are also buying from the same global market. If commenters just want to be outraged and throw words around then use whatever words you want, I suppose.
- throwaway5465 8mo ago
  It is manipulation when wafers are purchased in order to not process further a la OpenAI.
Scoundreller 8mo ago
I guess we’d call this oligopsony? The monopsony (single buyer of a good) equivalent of an oligopoly? Phew, it is a word, but not a highly studied one! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oligopsony https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oligopsony

Economic history is full of examples of demand shocks. This is not some unique situation that has never occurred before. This is actually a clean commodity price spike because it’s specifically not for market manipulation or financial engineering. It’s because demand for this product really did explode overnight.

fao_ 8mo ago
> This is actually a clean commodity price spike because it’s specifically not for market manipulation or financial engineering. It’s because demand for this product really did explode overnight. Based on how the same 3 billion has been circiling between Anthropic, OpenAI, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and a few other companies... I really doubt that this is the case, to be honest.
- zerkten 8mo ago
  I think it's reasonable to distinguish which side drove this. RAM prices are going up but it's not engineered primarily by RAM manufacturers. They are naturally jumping on the bandwagon and responding, but they aren't the drivers. Of course, how they respond matters. They could make other choices. Over time we'll see how this goes because AI could cool and then RAM manufacturers end up in a spot where they choose to manipulate prices to keep them higher.
Juliate 8mo ago
By 3 buyers who have no known plan to finance the purchase orders they have made. Economic history is also full of examples of bubble bursts.
browningstreet 8mo ago
You're being exceedingly pedantic over the use of the colloquialism "DRAM tax" but then you allow "demand shocks". So yeah, everyone's shocked. Weird hill..
- Aurornis 8mo ago
  Demand shock is not a colloquialism. It’s an real economic term that describes the situation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demand_shock https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demand_shock Tax is also an economic term, which is not what’s happening. Calling it a “tax on consumers” doesn’t make sense because any data centers buying RAM right now are also buying from the same global market. If commenters just want to be outraged and throw words around then use whatever words you want, I suppose.
throwaway5465 8mo ago
It is manipulation when wafers are purchased in order to not process further a la OpenAI.

Scoundreller 8mo ago

I guess we’d call this oligopsony? The monopsony (single buyer of a good) equivalent of an oligopoly? Phew, it is a word, but not a highly studied one! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oligopsony https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oligopsony