6 ms·
I assume this is a symptom of the wider ai hardware issue. This is starting to feel a bit like universal paperclips to me, and we are on the verge of the next
by alt227 8mo ago
I assume this is a symptom of the wider ai hardware issue.
This is starting to feel a bit like universal paperclips to me, and we are on the verge of the next stage of industrialisation multiplication.
I guess its either quantum computing or the hypnodrones which will get us out of this mess one way or another...
- joe_mamba 8mo agoAI bubble won't last forever when a lot of compute is burned at a loss just so people can generate AI videos of sharks driving cars for social media shorts. It will burst at some point, at which HW manufacturing will have to lower prices if they still want to have enough sales to stay in business, since most of their current sales boom comes from HW they haven't even made yet. OpenAI can't keep losing investor money forever with nothing to show for, at some point the first domino will fall, then the rest of the industry will go too from investor panic.
- echelon 8mo agoI really don't think so. I feel like we're at a takeoff. Senior engineers using AI coding are 10x more productive. My output has jumped dramatically. I'm a senior engineer and built six nines, active-active systems that moved billions of dollars a day. I am absolutely a beast with these models. I can replace an entire team just by myself. I'm literally shipping an entire week of features in half a day. I'm reviewing the code and planning the architecture - I am not dialing this in. Video editors using video models can replace entire studio production departments. Writer-directors who know how to direct are essentially now Hollywood studios in their own right. I know a lot about this in particular because I've been making films as a hobby for 15+ years and work with a lot of industry professionals. You'll see a lot of slop, but that's the same thing we got when we gave the masses cell phones with cameras attached to them. We still have plenty of amazing photographers in the world, and the means of creation are only getting cheaper/easier and the scope of creation for any individual is growing and growing and growing. This is the next industrial revolution.
- mirsadm 8mo agoThis is yet to be seen. Certainly feels like I'm more productive but I'm not seeing any faster results. It would be nice for this to be studied more.
- jacquesm 8mo agoWhat people mostly see is the illusion of productivity. But the measure should be outcomes, not the amount of stuff made. If a factory produces 10x the product but it is only 1/3rd the quality of what it was before that is long term unsustainable and leaves the door open for a competitor to attack them on quality. This is the key driver behind all those 'enshittification' problems that we see. Quantity over quality is almost always a balance and not a binary, if you start treating it as if one should always trump at the expense of the other then sooner or later it will catch up with you.
- iamtheworstdev 8mo agoYea but are you paying a profitable amount of money to your service provider for you to do it? I find it hard to believe that Anthropic is profiting off of my $100/mo subscription based on how active I keep my machines running.
- mrweasel 8mo agoThe numbers mentioned by Ed Zitron in his podcast Better Offline recently suggested that a $200/mo Claude subscription allows you to spend $2300 - $2700 worth of Anthropic tokens. That's pretty bad, but better than I expected. I don't see it being unreasonable that models and infrastructure could improve enough to bridge the cost gap within five to ten years. It's just that the AI companies already spend so much money that it might not matter.
- joe_mamba 8mo ago>Senior engineers using AI coding are 10x more productive. Are the subscriptions of those engineers enough to make their use-case profitable and on top to also be subsidizing the cost of AI video slop generation and keep the company profitable? >Video editors using video models can replace entire studio production departments. Then why is OpenAI losing more an more money? >This is the next industrial revolution. I'm not saying it isn't, but we did have the .com bubble burst even though that was also revolution. Something can be a bubble and a revolution simultaneously. The internet didn't go away after the .com bubble burst, just the crazy speculations did, which is what I was saying will happen with the AI bauble. The bubble will burst and only the profit generating parts of AI will remain.
- arisAlexis 8mo agoNothing has ever burst when production can't meet demand
- joe_mamba 8mo agoIt always bursts when demand stops. Current demand is artificially pumped up and financially unsustainable aka a bubble,
- hiuioejfjkf 8mo ago[dead]
- re-thc 8mo agoThe free demand is increasing. With price increases hitting the cloud, will there still be demand?
- hiuioejfjkf 8mo ago[dead]
- alt227 8mo agoAt this point all the programmers will stop using ai, hence bubble bursting. What is the point of paying $5000/month to keep a job which pays $10000/month?
- Spivak 8mo agoI mean it will be the employers of those programmers and at $5000/dev/month I expect a businesses will start demanding very tangible returns from this spend. And as much as I love the tools I don't think it's generating that much direct business value. It's very obviously not turning $140k devs into $200k devs.
- mikkupikku 8mo agoAll exponential growth curves are actually S curves, before the inflection point.
- koolala 8mo agoRoom temp superconductors for chips and robots!
- alansaber 8mo agoAll these macro technology predictions feel very WW2 Wunderwaffe to me
- embedding-shape 8mo agoSlinging doom and gloom on the internet seems like engagement-bait to me at this point. If the suppliers aren't increasing production, they clearly see something all these armchair doomers do not, I'm sure the prices will normalize back to "normal" levels sooner than people think.
- Haven880 8mo agoMore like China-factor to get us out of the mess. We wait for Huawei photonics gpus (end of this year), CXMT and YMTC ramping up production to flood the market or as Janet coined it overcapacity. You know China will undercut the price significantly.
- re-thc 8mo agoChina doesn't have enough to supply itself.
- monster_truck 8mo agoNeither does anyone else. Key difference being they planned for this 5 years ago instead of last quarter
- re-thc 8mo agoPlanned doesn’t mean achievable. The yields are still low.
- alt227 8mo agoLow is better than nothing.
- seanmcdirmid 8mo agoLow yields means their production can cost more than they sell it for, which is not sustainable. They have to have yields good enough that they can make money, otherwise the government is just subsidizing a give away, which is fine if they don’t export them but wouldn’t make sense if they do.
- Incipient 8mo agoChina has plenty of money to subside low yields while they improve their technology.
- skrebbel 8mo agoMy compliments for the hypnodrones reference
- alt227 8mo agoThankyou, I have played many games of Universal Paperclips as I imagine you have as well. Releasing the Hypnodrones is always a very satisfying milestone.