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> China treats housing primarily as providing a place for people to live, not a speculative asset. Where and who did you get this idea from? Speculation in Chi

> China treats housing primarily as providing a place for people to live, not a speculative asset. Where and who did you get this idea from? Speculation in China makes speculation in the USA look like child’s play. Speculation is such a huge part of China’s housing economy that the government has to constantly fight against it, or for it when they fight too hard and the economy starts to teeter, and then fight hard against it again when normal people can’t compete in a market full if Wenzhou housewives. I mean, that even Wenzhou housewife is still a meme for property speculator should give you a clue. The government only ever tolerated speculation in the first place because it used housing as a jobs program for a huge under employed rural population. Whatever the USA does to fix its problem, copying China’s problems isn’t going to help, and will actually make things worse. HSR isn’t used for commuting in China like the Shinkansen is used for commuting in Japan. It just isn’t very viable to transit from an HSR station to your job, HSR stations aren’t very central even in tier one cities. Example: you work in Beijing chaoyang and want to live in cheaper hebei, let’s say right on the HSR line so let’s not count commute times on your home end. But just getting from Beijing South to…anywhere let alone chaoyang (and chaoyang is huge, let’s say the CBD just for kicks), is going to take an hour or two even with the subway in place. What we need to copy from China is there ability to get projects done on time and on budget. But everything else…china has its own problems that it’s still working on.

jmyeet 8mo ago
> Where and who did you get this idea from? Speculation in China makes speculation in the USA look like child’s play. This information is so out of date it borders on misinformation. China's real estate market "crashed" at least 5 years ago at this point. And it didn't just crash in the same way that, say, the Toronto condo market has crashed. It crashed because the government burst the bubble, deliberately, to make housing a priority not an investment. Put another way, like I said above, housing people was made a priority over investor returns. > HSR isn’t used for commuting in China China's HSR now has over 4 billion passenger movements a year [1]. It's largely an alternative to short=to-medium distance air travel eg Beijing to Shanghai is ~1200km, roughly equivalent to Chicago to NYC. What's commuting got to do with it? Are you comparing to Japan where people might live 2 hours commute away from work for various reasons? [1]: https://www.chinadailyhk.com/hk/article/626494 https://www.chinadailyhk.com/hk/article/626494
- Herring 8mo ago
  No, it’s still crashing. Still plenty of room to go very badly. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/chinas-property-slump-deepens-and-threatens-more-than-the-housing-sector/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/chinas-p...
  - jmyeet 8mo ago
    First, I never said the crash was over. Second, this is a good thing. It is a success not a failure. I mean it's bad for the investors but China has decided people having affordable housing is more important than the investors. The investors aren't being bailed out. Why is this a good thing? Because the only way we can correct Western housing markets at this point is by doing what China has already done. That is, crashing the housing market. And that is political suicide so we are where we are and it's not going to get better anytime soon.
    - seanmcdirmid 8mo ago
      How is “speculation leads to crashing” mean that China is over their speculation phase? It took Japan a decade after their bubble to pop for them to completely detach from property speculation. China is basically Japan 2.0+ in this regard. Hopefully it lands at a Japanese equilibrium where property is priced more sanely, but they are definitely not there yet. My family owns a villa in a tier 88 (at least it has a HSR station and an airport now) so I have skin in this game.
    - nebula8804 8mo ago
      Do you think the housing market can crash on its own? Here is my crazy theory: After only one year of the second Trump admin, the US now seems to have damaged one of its greatest assets: namely attracting the cream of the crop. One second order effect of this is now we are entering population decline. If it becomes terminal, who is going to take out a 30 years mortgage on the overpriced houses? As boomers die off, we might see a collapse. There might be a scenario where a future Trump like character fumbles the bailout(or refuses to do it) and the housing market finally is allowed to burst.

jmyeet 8mo ago

> Where and who did you get this idea from? Speculation in China makes speculation in the USA look like child’s play. This information is so out of date it borders on misinformation. China's real estate market "crashed" at least 5 years ago at this point. And it didn't just crash in the same way that, say, the Toronto condo market has crashed. It crashed because the government burst the bubble, deliberately, to make housing a priority not an investment. Put another way, like I said above, housing people was made a priority over investor returns. > HSR isn’t used for commuting in China China's HSR now has over 4 billion passenger movements a year [1]. It's largely an alternative to short=to-medium distance air travel eg Beijing to Shanghai is ~1200km, roughly equivalent to Chicago to NYC. What's commuting got to do with it? Are you comparing to Japan where people might live 2 hours commute away from work for various reasons? [1]: https://www.chinadailyhk.com/hk/article/626494 https://www.chinadailyhk.com/hk/article/626494

Herring 8mo ago
No, it’s still crashing. Still plenty of room to go very badly. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/chinas-property-slump-deepens-and-threatens-more-than-the-housing-sector/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/chinas-p...
- jmyeet 8mo ago
  First, I never said the crash was over. Second, this is a good thing. It is a success not a failure. I mean it's bad for the investors but China has decided people having affordable housing is more important than the investors. The investors aren't being bailed out. Why is this a good thing? Because the only way we can correct Western housing markets at this point is by doing what China has already done. That is, crashing the housing market. And that is political suicide so we are where we are and it's not going to get better anytime soon.
  - seanmcdirmid 8mo ago
    How is “speculation leads to crashing” mean that China is over their speculation phase? It took Japan a decade after their bubble to pop for them to completely detach from property speculation. China is basically Japan 2.0+ in this regard. Hopefully it lands at a Japanese equilibrium where property is priced more sanely, but they are definitely not there yet. My family owns a villa in a tier 88 (at least it has a HSR station and an airport now) so I have skin in this game.
  - nebula8804 8mo ago
    Do you think the housing market can crash on its own? Here is my crazy theory: After only one year of the second Trump admin, the US now seems to have damaged one of its greatest assets: namely attracting the cream of the crop. One second order effect of this is now we are entering population decline. If it becomes terminal, who is going to take out a 30 years mortgage on the overpriced houses? As boomers die off, we might see a collapse. There might be a scenario where a future Trump like character fumbles the bailout(or refuses to do it) and the housing market finally is allowed to burst.