4 ms·

Good luck to them. None of the Arab Spring revolutions have gone well. 0/6

by Herring 8mo ago

mmasu 8mo ago
maybe the fact that Persians != Arabs will improve their odds. Recent uprisings had more luck (i.e. Bangladesh), even if it’s too early to fully assess their success
- thisislife2 8mo ago
  Bangladesh hasn't become a "democracy" in any manner. Remember that a whole host of leaders were arrested, and the most popular political party banned from participating in the recent elections! You can claim that if they were popular there wouldn't have been any "revolutions" when they were ruling. But note that this is a country that has struggled with violence throughout its history, has seen many military coups, and struggled to be a democracy. If they weren't popular, why were these so-called revolutionaries so hell-bent in not allowing them to participate in the "first free and fair" elections organised by them? You don't become a democracy by deliberately excluding a political party that was instrumental in the founding of Bangladesh, and is supported by half the country - that's how you weaken your country's unity and lay the grounds for a civil war.
nickff 8mo ago
The status quo in Iran isn’t going well either; the economy is terrible and getting worse, and the government is slaughtering its own citizens.
- throwaway27448 8mo ago
  > the economy is terrible and getting worse we could always stop punishing the people of Iran for their government...
  - nickff 8mo ago
    And the government could stop murdering people.
    - throwaway27448 8mo ago
      So could ours. But wishes were fishes there would be no room for water.
  - regularization 8mo ago
    Right, a clearer way of saying this, as you do, is the West imposed crippling sanctions just prior to all of this, as Trump sends aircraft carriers to the Gulf.
    - JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
      > a clearer way of saying this, as you do, is the West imposed crippling sanctions The world doesn't revolve around the West. Nobody in America caused the IRGC to engineer a water crisis. Nobody asked for them to murder students in an internet-connected age, like the single thing you do not do if you want to calm things down. Sanctions have made Iranians poorer. But so has their gerontocratic theocracy pursuing autarky and misguided nuclear ambitions at any cost. Khamenei can't hold open elections because he knows he'd lose.
      - throwaway27448 8mo ago
        So why don't we apply the same reasoning to the other authoritarian theocracies in the region that are just as oppressive? This whole idea that Iran is somehow uniquely bad just stinks to high heaven, and we have caused the people of iran to suffer for decades for it. I don't think Iran is the uniquely evil state between the two of us. (Not that the US is the cause of all evil, of course, but we certainly have caused many orders of magnitude more harm to the iranian people...)
        JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
> None of the Arab Spring revolutions have gone well None of the Arab-Spring populations had democratic rule since, arguably, Carthage. Iran is different [1]. More importantly, Iran was recently a secular society. It has memory of education and freedom. Many Arab countries have been fundamentalist for their entire modern eras. (To be clear, every first democracy arose from the ashes of a string of fallen autocrats. I'm arguing for Iran being different from Egypt, Tunisia or Gaza.) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_in_classical_Iran https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_in_classical_Iran
- regularization 8mo ago
  Iran had a parliament until they wanted Iran to control its own oil, whence the US and UK overthrew Mossadegh. They had ayatollah Borujerdi wreck the democracy. Also Kashani who helped oust Mossadegh, and then later supported Khomeini. The US recently worked to oust the secular leader of Syria to replace him with an ISIS leader. Actually al-Sharaa was on the US wanted terrorist list, only removed three months ago. Many such stories.
  - JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
    Sure. Not sure what about any of that says Iranians are incapable of governing themselves as a democracy.
    - valianteffort 8mo ago
      Iranians are protesting because their economy is collapsing from targeted attacks by the US/West. Foreign media records them and says they are trying to depose the theocracy, propaganda to justify a military incursion. Wild claims of civilians being killed by the regime, with zero evidence, manufactured from thin air. (WMD's in Iraq, White phosphorus in Syria) Average person now thinks it's their duty to to send American sons to die in the sandbox for another generation. The only winner here, israel.
      - 8mo ago
logicchains 8mo ago
The Tunisian revolution was a success.
guyomes 8mo ago
According to the book "A Convergence of Civilizations" from Youssef Courbage and Emmanuel Todd [1], the Iran revolution actually happened at the end of the 70s. And indeed, the political situation is not stable yet. The authors argue in the book that historically, it can take from 30 to more than 100 years before a country gets a stable democracy after a revolution. Notably, the book was written before the Arab Spring revolutions, and yet, it predicted them rather accurately. The main thesis of the book is that a revolution arises when most of the men and most of the women in a country can read. [1]: https://cup.columbia.edu/book/a-convergence-of-civilizations/9780231150033/ https://cup.columbia.edu/book/a-convergence-of-civilizations...

Good luck to them. None of the Arab Spring revolutions have gone well. 0/6

by Herring 8mo ago

Good luck to them. None of the Arab Spring revolutions have gone well. 0/6

mmasu 8mo ago

maybe the fact that Persians != Arabs will improve their odds. Recent uprisings had more luck (i.e. Bangladesh), even if it’s too early to fully assess their success

thisislife2 8mo ago
Bangladesh hasn't become a "democracy" in any manner. Remember that a whole host of leaders were arrested, and the most popular political party banned from participating in the recent elections! You can claim that if they were popular there wouldn't have been any "revolutions" when they were ruling. But note that this is a country that has struggled with violence throughout its history, has seen many military coups, and struggled to be a democracy. If they weren't popular, why were these so-called revolutionaries so hell-bent in not allowing them to participate in the "first free and fair" elections organised by them? You don't become a democracy by deliberately excluding a political party that was instrumental in the founding of Bangladesh, and is supported by half the country - that's how you weaken your country's unity and lay the grounds for a civil war.

nickff 8mo ago

The status quo in Iran isn’t going well either; the economy is terrible and getting worse, and the government is slaughtering its own citizens.

throwaway27448 8mo ago
> the economy is terrible and getting worse we could always stop punishing the people of Iran for their government...
- nickff 8mo ago
  And the government could stop murdering people.
  - throwaway27448 8mo ago
    So could ours. But wishes were fishes there would be no room for water.
- regularization 8mo ago
  Right, a clearer way of saying this, as you do, is the West imposed crippling sanctions just prior to all of this, as Trump sends aircraft carriers to the Gulf.
  - JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
    > a clearer way of saying this, as you do, is the West imposed crippling sanctions The world doesn't revolve around the West. Nobody in America caused the IRGC to engineer a water crisis. Nobody asked for them to murder students in an internet-connected age, like the single thing you do not do if you want to calm things down. Sanctions have made Iranians poorer. But so has their gerontocratic theocracy pursuing autarky and misguided nuclear ambitions at any cost. Khamenei can't hold open elections because he knows he'd lose.
    - throwaway27448 8mo ago
      So why don't we apply the same reasoning to the other authoritarian theocracies in the region that are just as oppressive? This whole idea that Iran is somehow uniquely bad just stinks to high heaven, and we have caused the people of iran to suffer for decades for it. I don't think Iran is the uniquely evil state between the two of us. (Not that the US is the cause of all evil, of course, but we certainly have caused many orders of magnitude more harm to the iranian people...)
      - JumpCrisscross 8mo ago

JumpCrisscross 8mo ago

> None of the Arab Spring revolutions have gone well None of the Arab-Spring populations had democratic rule since, arguably, Carthage. Iran is different [1]. More importantly, Iran was recently a secular society. It has memory of education and freedom. Many Arab countries have been fundamentalist for their entire modern eras. (To be clear, every first democracy arose from the ashes of a string of fallen autocrats. I'm arguing for Iran being different from Egypt, Tunisia or Gaza.) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_in_classical_Iran https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_in_classical_Iran

regularization 8mo ago
Iran had a parliament until they wanted Iran to control its own oil, whence the US and UK overthrew Mossadegh. They had ayatollah Borujerdi wreck the democracy. Also Kashani who helped oust Mossadegh, and then later supported Khomeini. The US recently worked to oust the secular leader of Syria to replace him with an ISIS leader. Actually al-Sharaa was on the US wanted terrorist list, only removed three months ago. Many such stories.
- JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
  Sure. Not sure what about any of that says Iranians are incapable of governing themselves as a democracy.
  - valianteffort 8mo ago
    Iranians are protesting because their economy is collapsing from targeted attacks by the US/West. Foreign media records them and says they are trying to depose the theocracy, propaganda to justify a military incursion. Wild claims of civilians being killed by the regime, with zero evidence, manufactured from thin air. (WMD's in Iraq, White phosphorus in Syria) Average person now thinks it's their duty to to send American sons to die in the sandbox for another generation. The only winner here, israel.
    - 8mo ago

logicchains 8mo ago

The Tunisian revolution was a success.

guyomes 8mo ago

According to the book "A Convergence of Civilizations" from Youssef Courbage and Emmanuel Todd [1], the Iran revolution actually happened at the end of the 70s. And indeed, the political situation is not stable yet. The authors argue in the book that historically, it can take from 30 to more than 100 years before a country gets a stable democracy after a revolution. Notably, the book was written before the Arab Spring revolutions, and yet, it predicted them rather accurately. The main thesis of the book is that a revolution arises when most of the men and most of the women in a country can read. [1]: https://cup.columbia.edu/book/a-convergence-of-civilizations/9780231150033/ https://cup.columbia.edu/book/a-convergence-of-civilizations...