3 ms·

Probably right, but only if the premise is right: That the desktop and Laptops is dead and will be replaced by Tablets and Smartphones. And I doubt that. First

by onli 14y ago

Probably right, but only if the premise is right: That the desktop and Laptops is dead and will be replaced by Tablets and Smartphones. And I doubt that. First of all, and that is a standard-reasoning here, there will be for a long time be users of Laptops and PCs. People who work with that hardware like so many here. And of course gamers, cause despite all doom-prophecies the consoles never made the PC obsolete for the purpose of gaming. Furthermore: Look at the numbers. For example: http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUK23741112 http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUK23741112. That sales-downfall is not that much a fact the author believes it to be. Even if Gartners report is right and there was a decline this quarter, we are still talking about high volumes. Though of course tables will probably impact that market, don't be too sure that they will replace that market completely. If i were to guess, i would rather say there will be two quite healthy markets, one for pcs and one for tablets, with windows and its eternal foe linux still competing for servers and desktops for quite some time.

seanmcdirmid 14y ago
The desktop/laptop market is already pretty stagnant. It won't disappear, but no one is really expecting any growth, and many are expecting contractions as it becomes more niche. Its all about trends, not datapoints.
- onli 14y ago
  But that is my point. Even with a bit smaller core-market and for sure with a stagnant one, a company as big as microsoft has enough potential to survive and stay relevant. Be it with expanding via surface-tablets or whatever, but relying on their core-market. They are unlikely to disappear, contrary to what the article suggests, even without android-patent protection money.
  - seanmcdirmid 14y ago
    Yes! But Microsoft still has to evolve beyond the PC market, which they can totally do (and are doing).
  - babesh 14y ago
    Survive yes, relevance no, not when you serve a legacy market.
- Avshalom 14y ago
  No one is expecting growth because it's already near saturation. Attempting to use growth as the metric of health for companies the size of Microsoft or markets the size of (desktops+laptops) is some sort of pathology.
  - seanmcdirmid 14y ago
    The market is at saturation, but there is an ongoing upgrade/replacement market to consider. If PCs are upgraded every 6 years instead of 2 years, your market is effectively 1/3rd as big. 6 years in consumer is not very strange, especially if their PC is collecting dust while they do everything on their iPad. In Enterprise, I'm not really sure for office workers, but definitely the workstation market, however big that is, replacements should continue to be very healthy.
stevenwei 14y ago
Yeah I can't really see the PC market outright dying either. I think it will diminish as there are some use cases where a smartphone/tablet will suffice instead, but in the long term both will continue to coexist. I guess the question is, if Microsoft doesn't manage to successfully grab a slice of the smartphone/tablet pie, how big will the rest of it be?
babesh 14y ago
I think the medium term future is of smartphones first, then tablets, then laptops, and least of all desktops. In many cases, you can just hook a laptop to a monitor instead of having a desktop and gain the portability of a laptop. My personal experience is that for non technical people, a tablet is the current ideal computing device. Its just much easier to use and very portable. The phone is the ideal communications device since you can carry it everywhere and you are used to using it to take and receive calls and text. Now you can use it for email, Facebook, twitter, etc... With Moore's law and ever improving apps, tablets should gradually eat into laptop and desktop share. My 5 year old has been using an ipad and iphone for several years. He still does not use a laptop. Touch is an easier interface than mouse and keyboard. My wife's desktop computer sits idle for months while the ipad gets used a lot.
protomyth 14y ago
I wonder if anyone at DEC or Data General gave much thought to the Altair 8800 and what it meant for their product lines. I think the innovation wave has moved from the PC to the Post-PC devices (or whatever term we end up with). We are 5 years from the iPhone or about the 1980 timeframe for the PC. The minicomputer was still a player in the 80's. There will always be a need for certain segments to have more computing power, but the average consumer is getting very close to being served by tablets and smart phones. They can print wirelessly and add a keyboard when needed. Simpler ways to get a bigger screen for work are probably a given. I expect the PC to become a hobbyist / Professional machine, and the tablets / smart phones to be for everyone else.
SideburnsOfDoom 14y ago
Desktops and laptops don't have to be "replaced by tablets and smartphones" for the latter to eventually outnumber the former by ten to 1 or more. In which light, Windows 8 makes more sense - it's worth annoying x existing users in order to gain 10x new users. Though a lot of people who used to use laptops for home email and facebook are now perfectly served by tablets and phones.
Zigurd 14y ago
This all depends on what is meant by "dead." There are many businesses, like minicomputers and 370-architecture mainframes that continue to be large money-making businesses, but that have no mind-share because there is no upside, and nothing new to be done. It looks inevitable to me that PCs will stop being a consumer business. The only people who will buy them are people who need them, plus some remnant who are too used to them to change.

by onli 14y ago

seanmcdirmid 14y ago

The desktop/laptop market is already pretty stagnant. It won't disappear, but no one is really expecting any growth, and many are expecting contractions as it becomes more niche. Its all about trends, not datapoints.

onli 14y ago
But that is my point. Even with a bit smaller core-market and for sure with a stagnant one, a company as big as microsoft has enough potential to survive and stay relevant. Be it with expanding via surface-tablets or whatever, but relying on their core-market. They are unlikely to disappear, contrary to what the article suggests, even without android-patent protection money.
- seanmcdirmid 14y ago
  Yes! But Microsoft still has to evolve beyond the PC market, which they can totally do (and are doing).
- babesh 14y ago
  Survive yes, relevance no, not when you serve a legacy market.
Avshalom 14y ago
No one is expecting growth because it's already near saturation. Attempting to use growth as the metric of health for companies the size of Microsoft or markets the size of (desktops+laptops) is some sort of pathology.
- seanmcdirmid 14y ago
  The market is at saturation, but there is an ongoing upgrade/replacement market to consider. If PCs are upgraded every 6 years instead of 2 years, your market is effectively 1/3rd as big. 6 years in consumer is not very strange, especially if their PC is collecting dust while they do everything on their iPad. In Enterprise, I'm not really sure for office workers, but definitely the workstation market, however big that is, replacements should continue to be very healthy.

stevenwei 14y ago

Yeah I can't really see the PC market outright dying either. I think it will diminish as there are some use cases where a smartphone/tablet will suffice instead, but in the long term both will continue to coexist. I guess the question is, if Microsoft doesn't manage to successfully grab a slice of the smartphone/tablet pie, how big will the rest of it be?

babesh 14y ago

I think the medium term future is of smartphones first, then tablets, then laptops, and least of all desktops. In many cases, you can just hook a laptop to a monitor instead of having a desktop and gain the portability of a laptop. My personal experience is that for non technical people, a tablet is the current ideal computing device. Its just much easier to use and very portable. The phone is the ideal communications device since you can carry it everywhere and you are used to using it to take and receive calls and text. Now you can use it for email, Facebook, twitter, etc... With Moore's law and ever improving apps, tablets should gradually eat into laptop and desktop share. My 5 year old has been using an ipad and iphone for several years. He still does not use a laptop. Touch is an easier interface than mouse and keyboard. My wife's desktop computer sits idle for months while the ipad gets used a lot.

protomyth 14y ago

I wonder if anyone at DEC or Data General gave much thought to the Altair 8800 and what it meant for their product lines. I think the innovation wave has moved from the PC to the Post-PC devices (or whatever term we end up with). We are 5 years from the iPhone or about the 1980 timeframe for the PC. The minicomputer was still a player in the 80's. There will always be a need for certain segments to have more computing power, but the average consumer is getting very close to being served by tablets and smart phones. They can print wirelessly and add a keyboard when needed. Simpler ways to get a bigger screen for work are probably a given. I expect the PC to become a hobbyist / Professional machine, and the tablets / smart phones to be for everyone else.

SideburnsOfDoom 14y ago

Desktops and laptops don't have to be "replaced by tablets and smartphones" for the latter to eventually outnumber the former by ten to 1 or more. In which light, Windows 8 makes more sense - it's worth annoying x existing users in order to gain 10x new users. Though a lot of people who used to use laptops for home email and facebook are now perfectly served by tablets and phones.

Zigurd 14y ago

This all depends on what is meant by "dead." There are many businesses, like minicomputers and 370-architecture mainframes that continue to be large money-making businesses, but that have no mind-share because there is no upside, and nothing new to be done. It looks inevitable to me that PCs will stop being a consumer business. The only people who will buy them are people who need them, plus some remnant who are too used to them to change.