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The minute Apple chose Google, OpenAI became a dead duck. It will float for a while but it cannot compete with the likes of Google, their unlimited pockets and

The minute Apple chose Google, OpenAI became a dead duck. It will float for a while but it cannot compete with the likes of Google, their unlimited pockets and better yet their access to data

awongh 8mo ago
I think it points to OpenAI trying to pivot to leveraging their brand awareness head start and optimizing for either ads or something like the Jony Ive device- focusing on the consumer side. For now people identify LLMs and AI with the ChatGPT brand. This seems like it might be the stickiest thing they can grab ahold of in the long term.
- dakolli 8mo ago
  Ads in GPT, might literally be the worst business decision ever made. Google can get away with Ads, its expected from them, but not OpenAI
  - _aavaa_ 8mo ago
    Sergei and Brin were pretty vocal about the problems with ads and why they don't belong in search engines when they started. The only reason it's expected now is because of a slow boil.
  - duskdozer 8mo ago
    They ideally will not want you to realize you're looking at ads.
- raw_anon_1111 8mo ago
  OpenAI is not going to fund themselves with $20 subscriptions and advertising enough to be profitable.
  - gruturo 8mo ago
    > OpenAI is not going to fund themselves with $20 subscriptions and advertising enough to be profitable. Then it's doomed. Which is also my opinion, I don't disagree at all with you.
- cael450 8mo ago
  Consumer AI is not going to come close to bailing them out. They need B2B use cases. Anthropic is a little better positioned because they picked the most proven B2B use case — development — and focused hard on it. But they'll have to expand to additional use cases to keep up with their spend and valuation, which is why things like cowork exist. But I tend to agree that the ultimate winner is going to be Google. Maybe Microsoft too.
  - ghaff 8mo ago
    Consumers en masse aren't going to pay big $$s for AI. Maybe some specific embedded apps as part of other products.
    - WarmWash 8mo ago
      They'll pay $60-$80/mo for it. Just watch. Unless you're totally dumb or a super genius, LLMs can easily provide that kind of monthly value to you. This is already true for most SOTA models, and will only become more true as they get smarter and as society reconfigures for smoother AI integration. Right now we are in the "get them hooked" phase of the business cycle. It's working really damn well, arguably better than any other technology ever. People will pay, they're not worried about that.
      - zozbot234 8mo ago
        It would have to be $60-$80/mo. in value over and above what you could get at the same time with cheap 3rd party inference on open models. That's not impossible depending on what kind of service they provide, but it's really hard.
        WarmWash 8mo ago
        The average cell phone bill in the US is $135/mo. Plans with unlimited talk/text and 5GB+ of data have been available for <$30 for over a decade now. The AI labs are not worried.
        8mo ago
- ChoGGi 8mo ago
  > For now people identify LLMs and AI with the ChatGPT brand. > This seems like it might be the stickiest thing they can grab ahold of in the long term. For now, but do you still Xerox paper?
johsole 8mo ago
I think Microsoft probably picks up all of OpenAI if OpenAI gets in financial trouble.
- chasd00 8mo ago
  Yes, I think that’s their plan. Remember when Altman got fired from OpenAI? Msoft was right there with open arms. Msoft is probably letting OpenAI do the dirty work of fleecing investors and then when all their money is gone doing the R/D, MSoft scoops up the IP and continues on.
xnx 8mo ago
> OpenAI became a dead duck Won't Microsoft own OpenAI after it flames out?
- Balinares 8mo ago
  A match made in heaven.
- smegger001 8mo ago
  sort of not really but effectively yes. their deal with OpenAI gave them unrestricted use of all of OpenAI Models and IP (source code, weights, patents probably any other data) except the eventual hypothetical end products of Artificial General Intelligence which would belong to OpenAI alone but Microsoft would still have everything leading to it so could probably make that jump on their own (not a great deal on OpenAI's part as it doesn't give them much of a moat). so when OpenAI runs out of money well Microsoft won't own the IP but will have unrestricted use of it some one else could buy it at bankruptcy but microsoft could still use it. As for the staff well they already showed a willingness to jump ship to Microsoft back when the OpenAI board tried firing Sam without giving a reason, and if OpenAI dies Microsoft would probably hire any of the top talent that applied. So kinda sort of but on paper no but yeah they would have everything of value they would choose have.

The minute Apple chose Google, OpenAI became a dead duck. It will float for a while but it cannot compete with the likes of Google, their unlimited pockets and better yet their access to data

awongh 8mo ago

I think it points to OpenAI trying to pivot to leveraging their brand awareness head start and optimizing for either ads or something like the Jony Ive device- focusing on the consumer side. For now people identify LLMs and AI with the ChatGPT brand. This seems like it might be the stickiest thing they can grab ahold of in the long term.

dakolli 8mo ago
Ads in GPT, might literally be the worst business decision ever made. Google can get away with Ads, its expected from them, but not OpenAI
- _aavaa_ 8mo ago
  Sergei and Brin were pretty vocal about the problems with ads and why they don't belong in search engines when they started. The only reason it's expected now is because of a slow boil.
- duskdozer 8mo ago
  They ideally will not want you to realize you're looking at ads.
raw_anon_1111 8mo ago
OpenAI is not going to fund themselves with $20 subscriptions and advertising enough to be profitable.
- gruturo 8mo ago
  > OpenAI is not going to fund themselves with $20 subscriptions and advertising enough to be profitable. Then it's doomed. Which is also my opinion, I don't disagree at all with you.
cael450 8mo ago
Consumer AI is not going to come close to bailing them out. They need B2B use cases. Anthropic is a little better positioned because they picked the most proven B2B use case — development — and focused hard on it. But they'll have to expand to additional use cases to keep up with their spend and valuation, which is why things like cowork exist. But I tend to agree that the ultimate winner is going to be Google. Maybe Microsoft too.
- ghaff 8mo ago
  Consumers en masse aren't going to pay big $$s for AI. Maybe some specific embedded apps as part of other products.
  - WarmWash 8mo ago
    They'll pay $60-$80/mo for it. Just watch. Unless you're totally dumb or a super genius, LLMs can easily provide that kind of monthly value to you. This is already true for most SOTA models, and will only become more true as they get smarter and as society reconfigures for smoother AI integration. Right now we are in the "get them hooked" phase of the business cycle. It's working really damn well, arguably better than any other technology ever. People will pay, they're not worried about that.
    - zozbot234 8mo ago
      It would have to be $60-$80/mo. in value over and above what you could get at the same time with cheap 3rd party inference on open models. That's not impossible depending on what kind of service they provide, but it's really hard.
      - WarmWash 8mo ago
        The average cell phone bill in the US is $135/mo. Plans with unlimited talk/text and 5GB+ of data have been available for <$30 for over a decade now. The AI labs are not worried.
      - 8mo ago
ChoGGi 8mo ago
> For now people identify LLMs and AI with the ChatGPT brand. > This seems like it might be the stickiest thing they can grab ahold of in the long term. For now, but do you still Xerox paper?

johsole 8mo ago

I think Microsoft probably picks up all of OpenAI if OpenAI gets in financial trouble.

chasd00 8mo ago
Yes, I think that’s their plan. Remember when Altman got fired from OpenAI? Msoft was right there with open arms. Msoft is probably letting OpenAI do the dirty work of fleecing investors and then when all their money is gone doing the R/D, MSoft scoops up the IP and continues on.

xnx 8mo ago

> OpenAI became a dead duck Won't Microsoft own OpenAI after it flames out?

Balinares 8mo ago
A match made in heaven.
smegger001 8mo ago
sort of not really but effectively yes. their deal with OpenAI gave them unrestricted use of all of OpenAI Models and IP (source code, weights, patents probably any other data) except the eventual hypothetical end products of Artificial General Intelligence which would belong to OpenAI alone but Microsoft would still have everything leading to it so could probably make that jump on their own (not a great deal on OpenAI's part as it doesn't give them much of a moat). so when OpenAI runs out of money well Microsoft won't own the IP but will have unrestricted use of it some one else could buy it at bankruptcy but microsoft could still use it. As for the staff well they already showed a willingness to jump ship to Microsoft back when the OpenAI board tried firing Sam without giving a reason, and if OpenAI dies Microsoft would probably hire any of the top talent that applied. So kinda sort of but on paper no but yeah they would have everything of value they would choose have.