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Where is this mythical cheap source of batteries? I mean you can go on Alibaba and order cheap 18650 cells in limited quantities but there's an enormous differe

by nradov 9mo ago

Where is this mythical cheap source of batteries? I mean you can go on Alibaba and order cheap 18650 cells in limited quantities but there's an enormous difference between doing that and having enough reliable battery power to keep a nationwide grid supplying a modern industrial economy through several days of bad weather.

adriand 9mo ago
> Where is this mythical cheap source of batteries? They’re made out of rocks. Yes, you have to take steps to acquire and refine the materials, then turn them into batteries. However, the process for doing that is not mysterious.
- nradov 9mo ago
  Not mysterious, just slow and expensive.
  - defrost 9mo ago
    Across the world, according to BNEF, the cost of grid scale battery packs has fallen another 45 per cent in 2025 following a 40 per cent fall in 2024. The UK-based energy think tank Ember has now also reached the same conclusion, underlying its unexpected impact on solar power. from: https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-plunging-cost-of-battery-storage-and-how-its-changed-the-grid-and-saved-the-day-for-big-solar/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-plunging-cost-of-battery-sto... citing: https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-review-2025/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-... and similar reports. Resource prices for batteries did spike at various times in the past, this had more to do with opening and then closing a lot of production sites by mining companies than with any real meaningful supply issue. Urban grid scal battery parks are on the rise globally, industrial parks have always had special status and can still concentrate modern efficient peaker turbines and buffer storage to bridge, if applicable, and use any general daytime excess.
    - nradov 9mo ago
      Rising from an extremely low baseline. Actual deployed grid scale battery storage worldwide remains minuscule in relation to daily electricity consumption. Sure let's deploy it where we can but it's delusional to believe that this represents a realistic alternative to nuclear or fossil fuel power for industrial base load requirements in most countries anytime soon. The numbers simply don't add up.
      - triceratops 9mo ago
        Things are changing very, very fast. https://theconversation.com/big-batteries-are-now-outcompeting-gas-in-the-grid-and-gas-rich-western-australia-is-at-the-forefront-271753 https://theconversation.com/big-batteries-are-now-outcompeti...
adgjlsfhk1 9mo ago
The Alibaba rate is still ~20% margin (not including shipping costs which decrease as order size increases) over the wholesale rate. As a consumer you don't have the ability to buy batteries wholesale (similar to how you can't go purchase a combined cycle natural gas plant on Amazon)

by nradov 9mo ago

adriand 9mo ago

> Where is this mythical cheap source of batteries? They’re made out of rocks. Yes, you have to take steps to acquire and refine the materials, then turn them into batteries. However, the process for doing that is not mysterious.

nradov 9mo ago
Not mysterious, just slow and expensive.
- defrost 9mo ago
  Across the world, according to BNEF, the cost of grid scale battery packs has fallen another 45 per cent in 2025 following a 40 per cent fall in 2024. The UK-based energy think tank Ember has now also reached the same conclusion, underlying its unexpected impact on solar power. from: https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-plunging-cost-of-battery-storage-and-how-its-changed-the-grid-and-saved-the-day-for-big-solar/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-plunging-cost-of-battery-sto... citing: https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-review-2025/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-... and similar reports. Resource prices for batteries did spike at various times in the past, this had more to do with opening and then closing a lot of production sites by mining companies than with any real meaningful supply issue. Urban grid scal battery parks are on the rise globally, industrial parks have always had special status and can still concentrate modern efficient peaker turbines and buffer storage to bridge, if applicable, and use any general daytime excess.
  - nradov 9mo ago
    Rising from an extremely low baseline. Actual deployed grid scale battery storage worldwide remains minuscule in relation to daily electricity consumption. Sure let's deploy it where we can but it's delusional to believe that this represents a realistic alternative to nuclear or fossil fuel power for industrial base load requirements in most countries anytime soon. The numbers simply don't add up.
    - triceratops 9mo ago
      Things are changing very, very fast. https://theconversation.com/big-batteries-are-now-outcompeting-gas-in-the-grid-and-gas-rich-western-australia-is-at-the-forefront-271753 https://theconversation.com/big-batteries-are-now-outcompeti...

adgjlsfhk1 9mo ago

The Alibaba rate is still ~20% margin (not including shipping costs which decrease as order size increases) over the wholesale rate. As a consumer you don't have the ability to buy batteries wholesale (similar to how you can't go purchase a combined cycle natural gas plant on Amazon)