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I'm a different kind of crotchety. I think it's real and potentially catastrophic. But I see very little chance of (sufficient) coordinated action to mitigate
by CoastalCoder 8mo ago
I'm a different kind of crotchety.
I think it's real and potentially catastrophic. But I see very little chance of (sufficient) coordinated action to mitigate it.
I.e., I think there's too much temptation for individual countries to pursue a competitive economic or military advantage by letting everyone but themselves make sacrifices.
I hope I'm wrong.
- bryanlarsen 8mo agoLuckily the effect is much larger in the opposite direction: weaning oneself off of foreign oil is a huge advantage both economically and militarily.
- nradov 8mo agoIs it though? For developing countries, having a large supply of fossil fuels has always been a huge accelerator for industrialization and overall economic growth even if that fuel has to be imported. There really is no substitute, especially when you consider that it's not used only for transportation and power generation but also for manufacturing as an industrial heat source and chemical feed stock.
- eldaisfish 8mo agofossil fuels were a proxy for energy. China continues to show the world that energy independence can come via electricity that you generate within your borders, and that it can be cheaper than importing foreign oil.
- nradov 8mo agoChina is in no way energy independent. Their fossil fuel imports are extremely high and not decreasing.
- bryanlarsen 8mo agoChina's gasoline use is down substantially. Industrial use is up, but much of that is re exported via plastic etc.
- nradov 8mo agoRight, that's exactly the point. Regardless of the consequences, worldwide fossil fuel consumption will continue increasing. Those stable organic molecules with energy rich chemical bonds are so damn useful for everything that enables modern industrial civilization and there is no substitute.
- bryanlarsen 8mo agoNo, plastic usage world wide is less than 10% of fossil fuel usage. Only in China can the plastic increase compensate for lowering demand because they are the factory of the world.
- nradov 8mo agoBuddy you're really missing the point. Fossil fuels are used as inputs into a huge number of manufactured products, not just plastic.
- bryanlarsen 8mo agoAll of which combined are well under 10%.
- pstuart 8mo agoChina seems to think so. Their efforts to boost their non-carbon energy sources is going at an advanced clip, along with their advances in EVs. Not saying they're above reproach, but their energy policy certainly trumps ours.
- gzread 8mo agoSolar energy is cheaper than oil right now. On average. Too bad it's highly variable but if you can cope with extreme variability you can get extremely cheap energy.
- nradov 8mo agoPretty tough to cope with variability if you want to build a modern industrial economy. I mean even with cheap labor it kind of kills your cost structure when capital intensive facilities have to shut down due to electricity shortage. Plus there are plenty of industrial processes that require fossil fuels as inputs separate from just electricity.
- bryanlarsen 8mo agoThe cheapest mix of reliable power is 95% solar/battery and 5% natural gas. And that's in the US with its cheap gas and poor insolation. In the third world it'll be much higher than 95%.
- mikrotikker 8mo agoNuclear energy is our saviour it needs to be miniaturized and proliferated.
- spwa4 8mo agoIndia and China are doing just that. How are they doing that, you ask? Switching to coal ... India's adding 80GW of coal, and China having 95GW planned and building.
- bryanlarsen 8mo agoIndia added 9GW of coal and 40GW of solar. China added 91GW of coal and 315GW of solar. They're getting most of their new power from solar and running coal only at night.
- spwa4 8mo agoI don't understand your argument. You agree they're increasing coal use? Besides, anyone wanting to know the state of coal use just needs to go to Youtube, search "Bejing" or "Delhi" air quality and ample evidence of what's happening and the effects will come forward in 1000 different voices.
- bryanlarsen 8mo agoA comparison of Beijing air quality between 2020 and 2025 will show drastic differences -- it's gotten much better. China's coal usage is relatively flat. They've increased their capacity, but they've been decreasing their capacity factor (aka what percentage of the time the plants are running) at approximately the same rate. They used to run their plants 24/7. Now they run only at night. They've started adding batteries to the grid so in the future the coal plants will only run after a stretch of cloudy days.
- spwa4 8mo agoThe data I'm finding says that it's still increasing, especially in India. They expect it to start dropping in 2028-2030 due to the buildouts you're mentioning but for now that isn't happening. Claim is that it's about strategic safety for both countries. Coal is easy, and they have plenty of it (unlike oil, which neither have in any quantity).
- guelo 8mo agoTrump is implementing multi decade right wing fantasies in many fronts. The idea that we can't achieve anything is limiting yourself when you're in a political arena. To win, like Trump, when you get power you have to attack on many fronts, cultural, capital, legal, and approach it as a zero sum scorched earth war where norms are another obstacle in your way.
- rayiner 8mo agoYou weren’t already doing that? You guys literally changed a dictionary definition to make a conservative appointee look bad: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/merriam-webster-changed-definition-sexual-preference-barrett-hearing https://www.foxnews.com/politics/merriam-webster-changed-def... Trump, a democrat himself, is simply using the multi-front strategy he already knew.
- garte 8mo agothats a wild take... isnt this exactly the purpose of a dictionary: to reflect the words used in general language usage?
- rayiner 8mo agoRight, the definition should reflect general usage. Did the general usage here just coincidentally change days after a Republican appointee used a word in a hearing? That’s a heck of a coincidence! No, what happened was that liberals used their control over putatively neutral institutions like M-W to advance their position in a political dispute.