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Another reframing that may be useful is energy security/redundancy. If you have a cheap source of solar panels and batteries, the only downside to installing t

Another reframing that may be useful is energy security/redundancy. If you have a cheap source of solar panels and batteries, the only downside to installing them all over the country is up-front cost (which pays itself off quickly). The upside you gain is a substantially more robust, less centralized power grid that can continue to operate if something happens to impede your supply of fossil fuels or part of the grid gets cut off. Looking at how things have played out elsewhere in the world the past few years, that's powerful.

nradov 8mo ago
Where is this mythical cheap source of batteries? I mean you can go on Alibaba and order cheap 18650 cells in limited quantities but there's an enormous difference between doing that and having enough reliable battery power to keep a nationwide grid supplying a modern industrial economy through several days of bad weather.
- adriand 8mo ago
  > Where is this mythical cheap source of batteries? They’re made out of rocks. Yes, you have to take steps to acquire and refine the materials, then turn them into batteries. However, the process for doing that is not mysterious.
  - nradov 8mo ago
    Not mysterious, just slow and expensive.
    - defrost 8mo ago
      Across the world, according to BNEF, the cost of grid scale battery packs has fallen another 45 per cent in 2025 following a 40 per cent fall in 2024. The UK-based energy think tank Ember has now also reached the same conclusion, underlying its unexpected impact on solar power. from: https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-plunging-cost-of-battery-storage-and-how-its-changed-the-grid-and-saved-the-day-for-big-solar/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-plunging-cost-of-battery-sto... citing: https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-review-2025/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-... and similar reports. Resource prices for batteries did spike at various times in the past, this had more to do with opening and then closing a lot of production sites by mining companies than with any real meaningful supply issue. Urban grid scal battery parks are on the rise globally, industrial parks have always had special status and can still concentrate modern efficient peaker turbines and buffer storage to bridge, if applicable, and use any general daytime excess.
      - nradov 8mo ago
        Rising from an extremely low baseline. Actual deployed grid scale battery storage worldwide remains minuscule in relation to daily electricity consumption. Sure let's deploy it where we can but it's delusional to believe that this represents a realistic alternative to nuclear or fossil fuel power for industrial base load requirements in most countries anytime soon. The numbers simply don't add up.
        triceratops 8mo ago
        Things are changing very, very fast. https://theconversation.com/big-batteries-are-now-outcompeting-gas-in-the-grid-and-gas-rich-western-australia-is-at-the-forefront-271753 https://theconversation.com/big-batteries-are-now-outcompeti...
- adgjlsfhk1 8mo ago
  The Alibaba rate is still ~20% margin (not including shipping costs which decrease as order size increases) over the wholesale rate. As a consumer you don't have the ability to buy batteries wholesale (similar to how you can't go purchase a combined cycle natural gas plant on Amazon)

nradov 8mo ago

Where is this mythical cheap source of batteries? I mean you can go on Alibaba and order cheap 18650 cells in limited quantities but there's an enormous difference between doing that and having enough reliable battery power to keep a nationwide grid supplying a modern industrial economy through several days of bad weather.

adriand 8mo ago
> Where is this mythical cheap source of batteries? They’re made out of rocks. Yes, you have to take steps to acquire and refine the materials, then turn them into batteries. However, the process for doing that is not mysterious.
- nradov 8mo ago
  Not mysterious, just slow and expensive.
  - defrost 8mo ago
    Across the world, according to BNEF, the cost of grid scale battery packs has fallen another 45 per cent in 2025 following a 40 per cent fall in 2024. The UK-based energy think tank Ember has now also reached the same conclusion, underlying its unexpected impact on solar power. from: https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-plunging-cost-of-battery-storage-and-how-its-changed-the-grid-and-saved-the-day-for-big-solar/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-plunging-cost-of-battery-sto... citing: https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-review-2025/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-... and similar reports. Resource prices for batteries did spike at various times in the past, this had more to do with opening and then closing a lot of production sites by mining companies than with any real meaningful supply issue. Urban grid scal battery parks are on the rise globally, industrial parks have always had special status and can still concentrate modern efficient peaker turbines and buffer storage to bridge, if applicable, and use any general daytime excess.
    - nradov 8mo ago
      Rising from an extremely low baseline. Actual deployed grid scale battery storage worldwide remains minuscule in relation to daily electricity consumption. Sure let's deploy it where we can but it's delusional to believe that this represents a realistic alternative to nuclear or fossil fuel power for industrial base load requirements in most countries anytime soon. The numbers simply don't add up.
      - triceratops 8mo ago
        Things are changing very, very fast. https://theconversation.com/big-batteries-are-now-outcompeting-gas-in-the-grid-and-gas-rich-western-australia-is-at-the-forefront-271753 https://theconversation.com/big-batteries-are-now-outcompeti...
adgjlsfhk1 8mo ago
The Alibaba rate is still ~20% margin (not including shipping costs which decrease as order size increases) over the wholesale rate. As a consumer you don't have the ability to buy batteries wholesale (similar to how you can't go purchase a combined cycle natural gas plant on Amazon)