4 ms·

Well he certainly wouldn't but the engineers working for Tesla might, with a probability that is very low but greater than 0. It's much higher (but still low) i

by maxbond 8mo ago

Well he certainly wouldn't but the engineers working for Tesla might, with a probability that is very low but greater than 0. It's much higher (but still low) in 1 year, 5 years, 10 years. Tomorrow is a metanym for the future. But to be very clear I not only don't think they will but I don't think that they think they will, or they wouldn't be shifting focus to Optimus. I'm not invested in Tesla except for my exposure through index funds. If anyone who is a fan of Tesla can get through this article without changing their mind. Well. Bless their heart. https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/08/29/tesla-autopilot-crashes-evidence-testimony-wrongful-death/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/08/29/tesla-a... https://archive.ph/K4ckR https://archive.ph/K4ckR https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45062614 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45062614

dudefeliciano 8mo ago
> with a probability that is very low but greater than 0. And it is insane that this warrants a 1.5 trillion USD valuation - for vaporware.
throw310822 8mo ago
The question of whether they will solve FSD is not very relevant if everyone ends up solving it roughly at the same time.
- TitaRusell 8mo ago
  Ha exactly. Do Tesla shareholders think the rest of the auto industry are in a coma? Besides what does FSD even mean? Austin is not Amsterdam.
  - ben_w 8mo ago
    > Do Tesla shareholders think the rest of the auto industry are in a coma? I have no idea what institutional investors think, and they're probably the relevant group here. From the way I've observed individuals discussing it, defending it, on HN… it pattern-matches to my understanding of what people these days call "main character syndrome", i.e. that the other companies are just a supporting cast to provide an interesting challenge for the only one that's not an NPC.
    - throw310822 8mo ago
      Or, they're stuck in a narrative that stopped making sense only gradually. Tesla solving self-driving ten years ago would have been a triumph. Solving it today, meh. They would be ahead of others by a couple of years, max.
alsetmusic 8mo ago
> metanym I appreciate when my vocabulary expands. I understood this by context and similarity to 'synonym'. I may have encountered it before (probably), but I didn't know it. Excellent use in a post. Expands my horizons a bit. Hat tip.
Zigurd 8mo ago
To be maximally reductive, FSD will never work because the sensor suite is deficient. There are other reasons but that one's enough. Same for a rocket that's ridiculously large for orbital missions but can't go beyond orbit without 15 to 25 refueling flights of the same enormous rocket. The reasons for both these failing are going to be manyfold and complex, but there are enough simple reasons that everyone should understand.
- ryandvm 8mo ago
  Wait until they announce that Optimus is only going to have ears because "bats get by just fine"...
  - viraptor 8mo ago
    It would be actually fun to see where the limit is on echolocation with serious ML processing these days. Apparently people did quite well in 2022 https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9655721/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9655721/

by maxbond 8mo ago

dudefeliciano 8mo ago

> with a probability that is very low but greater than 0. And it is insane that this warrants a 1.5 trillion USD valuation - for vaporware.

throw310822 8mo ago

The question of whether they will solve FSD is not very relevant if everyone ends up solving it roughly at the same time.

TitaRusell 8mo ago
Ha exactly. Do Tesla shareholders think the rest of the auto industry are in a coma? Besides what does FSD even mean? Austin is not Amsterdam.
- ben_w 8mo ago
  > Do Tesla shareholders think the rest of the auto industry are in a coma? I have no idea what institutional investors think, and they're probably the relevant group here. From the way I've observed individuals discussing it, defending it, on HN… it pattern-matches to my understanding of what people these days call "main character syndrome", i.e. that the other companies are just a supporting cast to provide an interesting challenge for the only one that's not an NPC.
  - throw310822 8mo ago
    Or, they're stuck in a narrative that stopped making sense only gradually. Tesla solving self-driving ten years ago would have been a triumph. Solving it today, meh. They would be ahead of others by a couple of years, max.

alsetmusic 8mo ago

> metanym I appreciate when my vocabulary expands. I understood this by context and similarity to 'synonym'. I may have encountered it before (probably), but I didn't know it. Excellent use in a post. Expands my horizons a bit. Hat tip.

Zigurd 8mo ago

To be maximally reductive, FSD will never work because the sensor suite is deficient. There are other reasons but that one's enough. Same for a rocket that's ridiculously large for orbital missions but can't go beyond orbit without 15 to 25 refueling flights of the same enormous rocket. The reasons for both these failing are going to be manyfold and complex, but there are enough simple reasons that everyone should understand.

ryandvm 8mo ago
Wait until they announce that Optimus is only going to have ears because "bats get by just fine"...
- viraptor 8mo ago
  It would be actually fun to see where the limit is on echolocation with serious ML processing these days. Apparently people did quite well in 2022 https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9655721/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9655721/