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The mystery I can wrap my head around is how Tesla has avoided getting hammered despite being hit from a hundred different directions. What exactly is the marke
by shubhamjain 8mo ago
The mystery I can wrap my head around is how Tesla has avoided getting hammered despite being hit from a hundred different directions. What exactly is the market pricing in?
They peaked around 2021, and even after posting multiple quarters of disappointing results, the stock is still trading above 2021 levels. For almost any other company, slightly lowering guidance or missing estimates by a few percentage points simply tanks the stock. But for Tesla, no amount of Musk’s idiocy seems to be enough to seriously move it.
- TulliusCicero 8mo agoThere's a lot of true believers who think Tesla+Musk will crack self driving and/or humanoid robots any day now.
- jdross 8mo agoI am so confused when I read things like this because my Tesla model 3 is effectively self driving for me for months now. Hundreds of miles without intervention. No other car I can buy can do this yet
- thefounder 8mo agoThat’s irresponsible at best give it doesn’t support full self driving. I never understood why end users are allowed to just beta test a car on public roads.
- maxdo 8mo agoIs it responsible to let users do auto speed and auto lane on a high speed highway without other autopilot features ? Rollout both technologies at scale , and try to guess with one will cause more harm giving th fact there will be users in both cars trying to put legs on a steering wheel : A stupid tech that will not even try to do safe things Or software that is let’s say 4x less safe vs avg human but still very capable of doing maneuvering without hitting obvious walls etc ?
- thefounder 8mo agoGiving people more ways to shut themselves in the foot does not improve the safety. I find the entire thing a kind of dark pattern as the system along with misleading marketing makes you lax over time just to catch you off guard. You get used with the system to work correctly and then when you expect less it does the unthinkable and the whole world blames you for not supervising a beta software product on the road on day 300 with the same rigour you did on day one. I can see a very direct correlation with LLM systems. Claude has been working great for me until one day when it git reset the entire repo and I’ve lost two days work because it couldn’t revert a file it corrupted . This happened because I just supervised it just like you would supervise a FSD car with “bypass” mode. Fortunately it didn’t kill anyone , just two days of work lost. If there was the risk of someone being killed I would never allow a bypass /fsd/supervise mode regardless of how unlikely this is to happen.
- maxdo 8mo agothey have very good guardrails to prevent you that, unlike autolane etc. Teslas has sensors , eye trackers etc is it possible to shoot yourself in the leg, sure. But not in any different way vs human doing irrational things in the car, make up, arguing , love etc. Human-being is an irrational create that should not drive except for fun in isolated environment. Tesla or Waymo or anyone else.... It is good to remove human from the road, the faster the better.
- thefounder 8mo ago>> It is good to remove human from the road, the faster the better. I’m all for this but not to replace dumb people with dumb software. I think the FSD should be treated more like the airplane safety. We have the opportunity to do this right not just what’s the cheapest way we can get away with it.
- maxdo 8mo agowell, if you don't read news that try to panic about everything new, that's +- exactly how people currently use FSD. When I'm driving FSD If i want to drink, eat, etc, instead of doing weird one hand tricks every driver did, i just turn FSD and let it drive. When I'm tired , I'm doing the same. Again , attention control works really good, it doesn't let you sit on the phone etc. unlike many other cars with less advanced features. You can't be on FSD + Phone but you can easily be on the phone + lane control in other car. Phone is by far the biggest real killer of people, and no body is trying to create a campaign against phone mounts, etc.
- helloplanets 8mo agoLegally Teslas are Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, while Waymos for example are Automated Driving Systems. If you're driving a vehicle in the former category, you'll be on the hook for reckless driving if you aren't fully supervising the vehicle. I'm pretty sure the original commenter was supervising the driving, though.
- TheTxT 8mo agoExcept for their limited Robotaxi service. They have recently ditched their safety driver as well, so there is truly no one "driving" the car.
- Mawr 8mo agoAsk those who were killed while using FSD for their opinion on it before forming your own ;)
- dvrj101 8mo ago"No other car I can buy can do this yet" How many have you tested in your day to day life?
- Miserlou57 8mo ago"dude trust me"
- Retric 8mo agoMonths where you’re still required to be paying attention. Meanwhile 2 years ago Mercedes-Benz Drive Pilot a level 3 system let you sit and watch a movie without paying attention to the road. Personally that’s way more useful for me even if they didn’t let you turn it on at highway speeds.
- akmarinov 8mo agoActually Mercedes killed their Drive Pilot for now https://insideevs.com/news/784404/mercedes-level-3-drive-pilot-canceled/ https://insideevs.com/news/784404/mercedes-level-3-drive-pil...
- Retric 8mo agoThey canceled it because of poor adoption rather than any technical issues. Which if anything looks worse for Tesla long term. If luxury car owners aren’t willing to pay 200$/month for self driving then trying to up charge people buying used model 3 and Y’s after canceling the S and X looks dubious. Which means that 100$/month subscription likely loses them money vs an 8k purchase.
- loandbehold 8mo agoMercedes system was pretty useless because you could only use it in very limited conditions (specific freeways, only following another car). Nobody wants to pay $200/month to use it for 5% of their driving. Tesla FSD drives for you end-to-end.
- Retric 8mo agoMost people have a rather consistent commute, so the Mercedes was a more like a 0% or 80% kind of thing. The issue was adding more roads wasn’t going to help, the underlying benefit to attention free driving just wasn’t that valuable even to customers who could use the system regularly. They are looking to reintroduce it with a much higher top of 81MPH which might help, but agin my issue isn’t with the particular system but the underlying assumption of how much people value attention free driving.
- chimpanzee 8mo agoHundreds of miles is not an appropriate sample size for the technology's intended scale. See this related article and discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47051546 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47051546
- tempestn 8mo agoBased on the self driving trials in my Model Y, I find it terrifying that anyone trusts it to drive them around. It required multiple interventions in a single 10-minute drive last time I tried it.
- geertj 8mo agoHow long ago was that? I doubt it was the v14 software. The software has become scary good in the last few weeks, in my own subjective experience.
- tempestn 8mo agoIt certainly wasn't in the past few weeks, but I've been hearing about how good it's gotten for years. Certainly not planning to pay to find out if it's true now, but I'll give it another try next free trial!
- geertj 8mo agoMake sure you are on AI4 hardware when you do. If you buy FSD on AI3 you’ll be limited to v13, which is is terrible. I have used both and they are in different leagues altogether.
- mrguyorama 8mo agoThis exact sentence (minus the specific version) is claimed every single week. No, you do not "become scary good" every single week the past 10 years and yet still not be able to drive coast to coast all by itself (which Elon promised it would do a decade ago) You are just human and bad at evaluating it. You might even be experiencing literal statistical noise.
- geertj 8mo agoI have not been proclaiming scary good every week for the last 10 years. In fact, I have cancelled my subscription at least two times, once on v13 and once on v14, with the reason ‘not good enough yet.’ I am telling you that for me personally it has crossed a threshold very recently.
- tsimionescu 8mo agoYou need only look at Tesla's attempts to compete with Waymo to see that you are just wrong. They tried to actually deploy fully autonomous Teslas, and it doesn't really work, it requires a human supervisor per car.
- geertj 8mo agoTesla have recently started introducing unsupervised cars cars as well.
- jqpabc123 8mo agoYes, they moved the "safety driver" into a chase car. And the results speak for themselves. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8623960/tesla-tsla-robotaxi-crashes-in-austin-rise-to-14 https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8623960/tesla-tsla-robotaxi-c...
- rsynnott 8mo agoAnd seemingly only along one stretch of road? Like, this happened in Dublin in 2018: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/driverless-shuttle-takes-to-the-streets-of-dublin-1.3636947 https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/driverles... - going up and down a stretch of road is about as easy as it gets. > Mr Keegan said he was “pretty confident” that in “the next five to 10 years” driverless vehicles would “make a major contribution in terms of sustainable transport” on Dublin’s streets. As always, people were overoptimistic back then, too. There are currently no driverless vehicles in Dublin at all, with none expected anytime soon unless you count the metro system (strictly speaking driverless, but clearly not what he was talking about).
- SirMaster 8mo agoA bus crashing into a stationary Tesla counts as a crash for Tesla? What in the world is this metric?
- jqpabc123 8mo ago
- wolvoleo 8mo agoCan you watch a Netflix and have a beer while it's driving? No? Then it's not self driving.
- panick21_ 8mo agoThe data from their self driving pilots disagrees even if it works for you. Its simply not read to be a taxi that makes money by itself. It might a nice feature for your car to have. But most people aren't paying for it, the conversion rate is very low. So they are not making money from taxis and not making much money from software sales. So does it matter that for you personally it drives you around sometimes? Even if you price in a 4x increase in FSD buy conversion ratio, you can't explain the stock price. And I say this as a former Tesla investor who assumed that conversion ratio would be better then it is. But for that reason (and many others) I couldn't justify the valuation and dropped the stock.
- Yossarrian22 8mo agoBecause if you get in an accident you personally not Tesla are liable. Soon as I’m not liable for an accident when the computer is driving I’d sell my other cars and put my family in pink PT Cruisers if those were the only cars offering that
- deleted 8mo ago[deleted]
- herewego 8mo agoYou and I must not drive the same Tesla brand then because my Model Y is a terrifying experience when “self-driving” anywhere besides on highways. I do wonder if folks who say Tesla’s FSD works well and safely are simply lacking a self-preservation instinct.
- square_usual 8mo agoEven on highways I've had to intervene maybe once every 50 miles as it will often miss exits for me. This is a 2025 Model 3 with the latest 14.2 update in a major US metro.
- TulliusCicero 8mo agoIt's a very capable L2 system, it's just that it's been a very capable L2 system for a while now, and it still seems far away from reaching L4. And of course, Musk's insistence that they don't need other sensor types like lidar or radar definitely looks like it's getting in the way.
- UltraSane 8mo agoI am confused as to why you think no interventions in "hundreds of miles" is good enough. It has to be no interventions for hundreds of thousands of miles WITH THE CAR BEING EMPTY to be good enough.
- tartoran 8mo agoAnd there are also a lot of people claiming Tesla stock is being manipulated.
- dvrj101 8mo ago"true believers" yup this never changes .
- vintermann 8mo agoMeanwhile in China, the humanoid robots are doing Tai Chi and somersaults...
- yatopifo 8mo agoBut Tesla doesn't do all this even more and better!
- Hamuko 8mo ago>What exactly is the market pricing in? Elon Musk.
- paxys 8mo agoTesla is the world’s largest meme stock. People stopped applying rational pricing models, and rationality in general, to it a lot time ago.
- jmcgough 8mo agoPE ratios will suddenly matter again when we get hit with the next recession.
- bamboozled 8mo agoIf Tesla is worth a trillion dollars, is it a meme ?
- brightbeige 8mo agoIf Tesla is a meme, is it worth a trillion dollars ?
- dh2022 8mo agoThis is the much better question :)
- hackable_sand 8mo agoIt's not though
- catoc 8mo agoNot a meme? Or not a trillion dollars?
- dudefeliciano 8mo agoyup, remember when musk was pushing doge coin? not much difference
- jredwards 8mo agoThat can't be whole story, though. They're still profitable.
- gigatexal 8mo agoIt’s Elon. It’s a meme stock. Fundamentals don’t matter. That his wealth is so wrapped up in the public valuation of Tesla I guess investors think he will do everything he can to keep th stock price up that is until SpaceX goes public the I think he won’t care because his wealth will come form that primarily.
- SvenL 8mo agoThey don’t care because Musk is marketing Tesla not as a car company but as a technology company (building robots and self driving rental service). And why does he do that? Maybe because his car sales are down…
- shubhamjain 8mo agoI always assumed “tech company” meant using technology to build a fundamentally better car from the ground up. I don't know at what point the bait-and-switch happened, it was suddenly about pursuing every stupid moonshot fantasy at the cost of making better cars.
- tbrownaw 8mo agoI thought it was always a tech company focused around trying to import things from the future. Since before they ever had enough sales that sales could go down.
- hcnews 8mo agoAt some point you have to wonder if there's some manipulation going on? Do 100s of bots buy and sell these stocks at specific times to keep the price up? Maybe there's an institutional investor or few who secretly back Elon and are part of a scheme? A bit speculative reply but would appreciate if anybody links any such analysis'/investigations. From my limited knowledge, I know people have been shorting Tesla based on fundamentals for a while now but haven't been successful.
- bjourne 8mo agoThe billionaire class loves their crypto nazis--they won't let Musk fall from grace. Given the Epstein files, the Panama papers, and what we know about the elite networks, you'd have to be a sucker not to believe that the stock market is manipulated to the core.
- maxbond 8mo agoThe market discounts future returns but it is unclear and shifting what proportion of those returns are from the operations of the company in the market it sells products in and what proportion comes from the operations of traders in financial markets. More plainly, traders discount returns from buybacks and dividends financed by the operations of the company and returns from selling their shares to "greater fools". As long as the music is playing they will keep dancing. Musk is a master of DJing that party. We might wake up tomorrow and find that his house of cards has fallen apart, but we might wake up to learn they really have solved FSD. That ambiguity keeps the price from collapsing.
- danaris 8mo agoThere's zero chance that Musk will have suddenly "solved" FSD in a day, a week, or a year. He's not an engineer; he's a money man, and a grifter. That's why people keep giving Tesla money: because Musk has fooled so many people into believing he's this amazing engineer, who could, possibly, "solve" FSD overnight—and, moreover, has gotten them to buy into it so deeply that they have tied their identity into that belief, and so in order to continue to cling to it, they reject empirical evidence of both his lack of qualifications and his outright crimes.
- maxbond 8mo agoWell he certainly wouldn't but the engineers working for Tesla might, with a probability that is very low but greater than 0. It's much higher (but still low) in 1 year, 5 years, 10 years. Tomorrow is a metanym for the future. But to be very clear I not only don't think they will but I don't think that they think they will, or they wouldn't be shifting focus to Optimus. I'm not invested in Tesla except for my exposure through index funds. If anyone who is a fan of Tesla can get through this article without changing their mind. Well. Bless their heart. https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/08/29/tesla-autopilot-crashes-evidence-testimony-wrongful-death/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/08/29/tesla-a... https://archive.ph/K4ckR https://archive.ph/K4ckR https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45062614 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45062614
- keeda 8mo agoHaven't looked into this much myself, but throwing it out there: https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/04/19/for-15-years-tesla-stock-has-been-edging-down-during-the-day-and-shooting-up-overnight/ https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/04/19/for-15-yea...
- jqpabc123 8mo agoLong story short --- it's a cult --- there is no logical way to explain it. Musk is the leader selling his own brand of fantasy that he makes up as he goes along. A lot (if not most) of what he says never comes to pass but people still cling to every prognostication as if it is gospel. For over two decades, he was all about taking over the auto business with full self driving EVs. Obviously never happened. So now he is off to take over ride sharing and robots and AI and whatever else comes down the pike tomorrow.
- panick21_ 8mo agoI agree with you. I personally dropped my stock when it was clear that the bull thesis had collapsed. I had priced in, margin staying the same or going slowly down. FSD not working but achieving at least a decent amount of software sale conversion. Service to become a profit center. And most importantly, a profitable truck and 'Model 2' program to further push volume. Beyond that, just generally that electrification was ongoing and Tesla had a role to play. I never considered Robi-Taxi or Human Robots. All of these failed. Volume didn't continue to go up. Margin couldn't be substantiated. FSD didn't get much buys (not helped by absurdly increasing price). Truck program was a failure (and I don't think its because of the design). And 'Model 2' program was cancelled. I profited a lot from this stock and I think there was time where the stock-price was reasonable (I don't buy the claim that it was always a pure meme stock). But every quarter it got worse and worse. I can't understand why its still so high either.
- 4gotunameagain 8mo agoIts CEO is the most gifted person alive ..in pump and dump schemes. The rational thing would be to short it, but Tesla value will remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. It really has tarnished the name of the genius inventor.
- scotty79 8mo ago> What exactly is the market pricing in? Musk, the perception of. As always. Popular media drilled in that geniuses behaving like idiots is on point. So other idiots with money still suspect him of being a genius and singlehandedly turning things around at some point before the cliff.
- tim333 8mo agoI guess the thesis is Musk is building the sci-fi future. Robots, cities on Mars etc. It's impressive what marketing images can achieve - the future vision pumping the stock, the seig heil halving car sales.
- newyankee 8mo agoActually the funny thing is that there is a mixing of meme stuff, Elon verse impacts (AI + self driving + Energy) etc. and under none of these circumstances is a 200+ PE justified. The funny thing is after 6 years of effort apparently they have managed to get the dry coating process for batteries working and according to a few reputed sources have ingredients for entire battery chain available locally. The thing is if this stock was underpriced and rational this would be such a positive news after 2-3 years of growth stall. Instead they are trying to keep the hype up with endless goalpost changing and self driving possibly stuck perenially in edge case doom scenario with camera only decision
- Zigurd 8mo agoBatteries are boring, or at least the hype has a short shelf life. There are enough normies making progress on batteries that Elon hasn't got a credible argument that he is different and better. Same for cheap Teslas. Some hype trains hit the buffers sooner than later.
- curiousguy 8mo agoWouldn’t this be a side effect of everyone buying only indexes funds or ETFs? Me and other millions of people are investing in our pensions every month and buying ETF (S&P500 or global) and indirectly buying Tesla stocks even if we don’t want to. The system would need a big shock to cause the ETFs to rebalance and reduce the proportion of Tesla stocks that are part of the index.
- Rover222 8mo agoIt's not a mystery, regardless of if it's dumb or not - the market is pricing in likely dominance in robotics, both cybercab and optimus.
- xg15 8mo agoI wonder if some of it is because of Musk, not despite him. Yes, his actions and statements in the last year have been terrible, but he also demonstrated he is very close to one of the most important power centers on the planet. That might be enough for some investors.