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Last I checked, the tractor and plow are doing a lot more work than 3 farmers, yet we've got more jobs and grow more food. People will find work to do, whether

Last I checked, the tractor and plow are doing a lot more work than 3 farmers, yet we've got more jobs and grow more food. People will find work to do, whether that means there's tens of thousands of independent contractors, whether that means people migrate into new fields, or whether that means there's tens of multi-trillion dollar companies that would've had 200k engineers each that now only have 50k each and it's basically a net nothing. People will be fine. There might be big bumps in the road. Doom is definitely not certain.

theappsecguy 8mo ago
More jobs where? In farming? Is that why farming in the US is dying, being destroyed by corporations and farmers are now prisoners to John Deer? It’s hilarious that you chose possibly the worst counter example here…
- satvikpendem 8mo ago
  More output, not more farmers. The stratification of labor in civilization is built on this concept, because if not for more food, we'd have more "farmer jobs" of course, because everyone would be subsistence farming...
  - intended 8mo ago
    That’s not the statement made by the grand parent comment tho. That comment reads as stating an increase in farming jobs.
zaphirplane 8mo ago
Wow you are making a point of everything will be ok using farming ! Farming is struggling consolidated to big big players and subsidies keep it going You get layed off and spend 2-3 years migrating to another job type what do you think g that will do to your life or family. Those starting will have a paused life those 10 fro retirement are stuffed.
nl 8mo ago
> Last I checked, the tractor and plow are doing a lot more work than 3 farmers, yet we've got more jobs and grow more food. Not sure when you checked. In the US more food is grown for sure. For example just since 2007 it has grown from $342B to $417B, adjusted for inflation[1]. But employment has shrunk massively, from 14M in 1910 to around 3M now[2] - and 1910 was well after the introduction of tractors (plows not so much... they have been around since antiquity - are mentioned extensively in the old testament Bible for example). [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A2000X1A020NBEA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A2000X1A020NBEA [2] https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Farm_Labor/fl_frmwk.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Farm_Labor/fl_frmw...
- bandrami 8mo ago
  That's his point. Drastically reducing agricultural employment didn't keep us from getting fed (and led to a significantly richer population overall -- there's a reason people left the villages for the industrial cities)
  - blibble 8mo ago
    there's no reason to believe this trend will continue forever, simply because it has held for the past hundred years or so
  - reeredfdfdf 8mo ago
    But where will office workers displaced by AI leave? Industrialization brought demand for factory work (and later grew service sector), but I can't see what new opportunities AI is creating. There are only so many service people AI billionaires need to employ.
    - onlyrealcuzzo 8mo ago
      You realize this was the exact argument with the tractor / steam engine, electricity, and the computer?
      - 8mo ago
vineyardmike 8mo ago
America has lost over 50% of farms and farmers since 1900. Farming used to be a significant employer, and now it's not. Farming used to be a significant part of the GDP, and now it's not. Farming used to be politically significant... and not its complicated?. If you go to the many small towns in farm country across the United States, I think the last 100 years will look a lot closer to "doom" than "bumps in the road". Same thing with Detroit when we got foreign cars. Same thing with coal country across Appalachia as we moved away from coal. A huge source of American political tension comes from the dead industries of yester-year combined with the inability of people to transition and find new respectable work near home within a generation or two. Yes, as we get new technology the world moves on, but it's actually been extremely traumatic for many families and entire towns, for literally multiple generations.
- ethbr1 8mo ago
  Same thing with Walmart and local shops. On the one hand, it brings a greater selection, at cheaper prices, delivered faster, to communities. On the other hand, it steamrolls any competing businesses and extracts money that previously circulated locally (to shareholders instead).
  - Maxion 8mo ago
    > it brings a greater selection, Greater selection in one store perhaps, but over a continent you now have one garden shovel model.
- vasco 8mo ago
  What does that matter that a lot of people were farming? If anything that's a good argument for not worrying because we don't have 50%+ unemployment so clearly all those farming jobs were reallocated.
  - pzo 8mo ago
    This transformation back then took many many decades like few generations. People had time to adopt - it worked like this: as a kid you have seen family business was going worse, the writing was on the wall and teenagers pursued different professions. This time you won't have time to pivot different profession - most likely you will have not clue where to pivot to.
tuatoru 8mo ago
> Last I checked, the tractor and plow are doing a lot more work than 3 farmers, yet we've got more jobs and grow more food. We do not have more jobs for horses. In this context we are the horses.

theappsecguy 8mo ago

More jobs where? In farming? Is that why farming in the US is dying, being destroyed by corporations and farmers are now prisoners to John Deer? It’s hilarious that you chose possibly the worst counter example here…

satvikpendem 8mo ago
More output, not more farmers. The stratification of labor in civilization is built on this concept, because if not for more food, we'd have more "farmer jobs" of course, because everyone would be subsistence farming...
- intended 8mo ago
  That’s not the statement made by the grand parent comment tho. That comment reads as stating an increase in farming jobs.

zaphirplane 8mo ago

Wow you are making a point of everything will be ok using farming ! Farming is struggling consolidated to big big players and subsidies keep it going You get layed off and spend 2-3 years migrating to another job type what do you think g that will do to your life or family. Those starting will have a paused life those 10 fro retirement are stuffed.

nl 8mo ago

> Last I checked, the tractor and plow are doing a lot more work than 3 farmers, yet we've got more jobs and grow more food. Not sure when you checked. In the US more food is grown for sure. For example just since 2007 it has grown from $342B to $417B, adjusted for inflation[1]. But employment has shrunk massively, from 14M in 1910 to around 3M now[2] - and 1910 was well after the introduction of tractors (plows not so much... they have been around since antiquity - are mentioned extensively in the old testament Bible for example). [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A2000X1A020NBEA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A2000X1A020NBEA [2] https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Farm_Labor/fl_frmwk.php https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Farm_Labor/fl_frmw...

bandrami 8mo ago
That's his point. Drastically reducing agricultural employment didn't keep us from getting fed (and led to a significantly richer population overall -- there's a reason people left the villages for the industrial cities)
- blibble 8mo ago
  there's no reason to believe this trend will continue forever, simply because it has held for the past hundred years or so
- reeredfdfdf 8mo ago
  But where will office workers displaced by AI leave? Industrialization brought demand for factory work (and later grew service sector), but I can't see what new opportunities AI is creating. There are only so many service people AI billionaires need to employ.
  - onlyrealcuzzo 8mo ago
    You realize this was the exact argument with the tractor / steam engine, electricity, and the computer?
    - 8mo ago

vineyardmike 8mo ago

America has lost over 50% of farms and farmers since 1900. Farming used to be a significant employer, and now it's not. Farming used to be a significant part of the GDP, and now it's not. Farming used to be politically significant... and not its complicated?. If you go to the many small towns in farm country across the United States, I think the last 100 years will look a lot closer to "doom" than "bumps in the road". Same thing with Detroit when we got foreign cars. Same thing with coal country across Appalachia as we moved away from coal. A huge source of American political tension comes from the dead industries of yester-year combined with the inability of people to transition and find new respectable work near home within a generation or two. Yes, as we get new technology the world moves on, but it's actually been extremely traumatic for many families and entire towns, for literally multiple generations.

ethbr1 8mo ago
Same thing with Walmart and local shops. On the one hand, it brings a greater selection, at cheaper prices, delivered faster, to communities. On the other hand, it steamrolls any competing businesses and extracts money that previously circulated locally (to shareholders instead).
- Maxion 8mo ago
  > it brings a greater selection, Greater selection in one store perhaps, but over a continent you now have one garden shovel model.
vasco 8mo ago
What does that matter that a lot of people were farming? If anything that's a good argument for not worrying because we don't have 50%+ unemployment so clearly all those farming jobs were reallocated.
- pzo 8mo ago
  This transformation back then took many many decades like few generations. People had time to adopt - it worked like this: as a kid you have seen family business was going worse, the writing was on the wall and teenagers pursued different professions. This time you won't have time to pivot different profession - most likely you will have not clue where to pivot to.

tuatoru 8mo ago

> Last I checked, the tractor and plow are doing a lot more work than 3 farmers, yet we've got more jobs and grow more food. We do not have more jobs for horses. In this context we are the horses.