5 ms·

You’re describing task reallocation, but the bigger second-order effect is where the firm can now source the remaining human judgment. AI reduces the penalty f

You’re describing task reallocation, but the bigger second-order effect is where the firm can now source the remaining human judgment. AI reduces the penalty for weak domain context. Once the work is packaged like that, the “thinking part” becomes far easier to offshore because: - Training time drops as you’re not teaching the whole craft, you’re teaching exception-handling around an AI-driven pipeline. - Quality becomes more auditable because outputs can be checked with automated review layers. - Communication overhead shrinks with fewer back-and-forth cycles when AI pre-fills and structures the work. - Labor arbitrage expands and the limiting factor stops being “can we find someone locally who knows our messy process” and becomes “who is cheapest who can supervise and resolve exceptions.” So yeah, the jobs mostly remain and some people become more valuable. But the clearing price for that labor moves toward the global minimum faster than it used to. The impact won’t show up as “no jobs,” it is already showing up as stagnant or declining Western salaries, thinner career ladders, and more of the value captured by the firms that own the workflows rather than the people doing the work.

Bayko 8mo ago
> AI reduces the penalty for weak domain context This is why (personal experience) I am seeing a lot of FullStack jobs compared to specialized Backend, FE, Ops roles. AI does 90% of the job of a senior engineer (What the CEOs believe) and the companies now want someone that can do the full "100" and not just supply the missing "10". So that remaining 90 is now coming from an amalgamation of other responsibilities.
- KittenInABox 8mo ago
  In my mind we will have a bimodal set of skills in software development, likely something like a product engineer (an engineer who is also a product manager-- this person conceptualizes features and systemically considers the software as a whole in terms of ergonomics, business sense, and the delight in building something used by others) and something like a deep-in-the-weeds engineer (an engineer who innovates on the margins of high performance, tuning, deep improvements to libraries and other things of that nature). The former is needing to skill in rapid context switching, keeping the full model of customer journey in their minds, while also executing on technical rigor enough to prevent inefficiencies. The latter will need to skill in being able to dive extremely deeply into nuanced subjects like fine-tuning the garbage collector, compiler, network performance, or internal parts of the DOM or OS or similar. I would expect a lot of product engineering to specialize further into domains like healthtech, fintech, adtech, etc. While the in-the-weeds engineering will be platform, infra, and embedded systems type folks.
  - toldnotmywrath 8mo ago
    Can I take a guess that you believe you will speciate into the former?
    - KittenInABox 8mo ago
      Actually, ideally I'd love to dig deep into and specialize in database management systems internals. I think data engineering in general is the underspoken but fundamental necessity to any sort of application, AI or otherwise, but especially any concept of a data warehouse.
chunkmonke99 8mo ago
Isn't that what a well run company does when creating a process? Bureaucracy and process, reduces the penalty of weak domain context and in fact is designed to obviate that need. It "diffuses" the domain knowledge to a set of specifications, documents, and processes. AI may be able to accelerate it, or subsume that bureaucracy. But since when has the limiting factor been "finding someone locally who knows the process?" Once you document a process, the power of computing means you can outsource any of that you want no? Again, AI may subsume, all the back office or bureaucratic office work. Perhaps it will totally restructure the way humans organize labor, run companies, and coordinate. But that system will have to select for a different set of skills than "filling out n forms quickly and accurately." The wage stagnation etc etc. predates AI and might be due to other structural factors.
- kaibee 8mo ago
  > Isn't that what a well run company does How many of those do you see around?
  - echelon 8mo ago
    I bet we're about to see a lot of 10-person $100M+ ARR companies emerge. That's a scale where teams can be tight and excel.
    - y0eswddl 8mo ago
      when. people have been saying that since 2022. when and how. hmm?? show your work. or is this just more slype being spewed...
      - SkiFire13 8mo ago
        I think something around that scale (say maybe 20 employees, but definitely not hundreds) was possible even before LLM got popular, but the people involved needed to be talented and focused. I'm not sure if AI will really change that though.
      - 8mo ago
WillPostForFood 8mo ago
"it is already showing up as stagnant or declining Western salaries" Real median salary, and real median wages are both rising for the last couple years. Maybe they would have risen faster if there was no AI, but I don't think you can say there has been a discernible impact yet.
- overgard 8mo ago
  I don't think that's true, if you trust gemini at least.. "In 2025, U.S. software engineer pay is barely keeping pace with inflation, with median compensation growing 2.67% year-over-year compared to 2.7% inflation. While salaries held steady or increased during the 2021-2023 inflationary period, many professionals reported that real purchasing power remained stagnant or dipped, making it difficult to get ahead. "
- mxkopy 8mo ago
  I’d like a source for that. College graduates are no longer at an employment advantage compared to their uneducated peers. The average age of a new hire increased by 2 years over the past 4 years. Young people in the west have definitely seen declining salaries, if only by virtue of the fact that they’re not being offered at all. https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/economic-commentary/2025/ec-202514-are-young-college-graduates-losing-their-edge-in-the-job-market https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/economic-commentar... https://www.reveliolabs.com/news/social/65-and-still-clocking-in/ https://www.reveliolabs.com/news/social/65-and-still-clockin...
  - snowwrestler 8mo ago
    Real wage growth has been positive for the last 3 years: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013?output_view=pct_12mths https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013?output_view=pc...
deleted 8mo ago
[deleted]
simianwords 8mo ago
Funny you ignored the third order effect where the efficiency really does enable lower cost
- salawat 8mo ago
  Which is never realized. Price points don't decrease. Profit taking increases.
jackfranklyn 8mo ago
[flagged]
- intended 8mo ago
  What do you mean when you say “AI is reducing training overhead”?
  - christoff12 8mo ago
    Basically, "You don't have to understand how this works, just push this button when x, or flip this switch when y." I don't think the impact will be quite as large as some are saying here, but it won't be minimal either.

Bayko 8mo ago

> AI reduces the penalty for weak domain context This is why (personal experience) I am seeing a lot of FullStack jobs compared to specialized Backend, FE, Ops roles. AI does 90% of the job of a senior engineer (What the CEOs believe) and the companies now want someone that can do the full "100" and not just supply the missing "10". So that remaining 90 is now coming from an amalgamation of other responsibilities.

KittenInABox 8mo ago
In my mind we will have a bimodal set of skills in software development, likely something like a product engineer (an engineer who is also a product manager-- this person conceptualizes features and systemically considers the software as a whole in terms of ergonomics, business sense, and the delight in building something used by others) and something like a deep-in-the-weeds engineer (an engineer who innovates on the margins of high performance, tuning, deep improvements to libraries and other things of that nature). The former is needing to skill in rapid context switching, keeping the full model of customer journey in their minds, while also executing on technical rigor enough to prevent inefficiencies. The latter will need to skill in being able to dive extremely deeply into nuanced subjects like fine-tuning the garbage collector, compiler, network performance, or internal parts of the DOM or OS or similar. I would expect a lot of product engineering to specialize further into domains like healthtech, fintech, adtech, etc. While the in-the-weeds engineering will be platform, infra, and embedded systems type folks.
- toldnotmywrath 8mo ago
  Can I take a guess that you believe you will speciate into the former?
  - KittenInABox 8mo ago
    Actually, ideally I'd love to dig deep into and specialize in database management systems internals. I think data engineering in general is the underspoken but fundamental necessity to any sort of application, AI or otherwise, but especially any concept of a data warehouse.

chunkmonke99 8mo ago

Isn't that what a well run company does when creating a process? Bureaucracy and process, reduces the penalty of weak domain context and in fact is designed to obviate that need. It "diffuses" the domain knowledge to a set of specifications, documents, and processes. AI may be able to accelerate it, or subsume that bureaucracy. But since when has the limiting factor been "finding someone locally who knows the process?" Once you document a process, the power of computing means you can outsource any of that you want no? Again, AI may subsume, all the back office or bureaucratic office work. Perhaps it will totally restructure the way humans organize labor, run companies, and coordinate. But that system will have to select for a different set of skills than "filling out n forms quickly and accurately." The wage stagnation etc etc. predates AI and might be due to other structural factors.

kaibee 8mo ago
> Isn't that what a well run company does How many of those do you see around?
- echelon 8mo ago
  I bet we're about to see a lot of 10-person $100M+ ARR companies emerge. That's a scale where teams can be tight and excel.
  - y0eswddl 8mo ago
    when. people have been saying that since 2022. when and how. hmm?? show your work. or is this just more slype being spewed...
    - SkiFire13 8mo ago
      I think something around that scale (say maybe 20 employees, but definitely not hundreds) was possible even before LLM got popular, but the people involved needed to be talented and focused. I'm not sure if AI will really change that though.
    - 8mo ago

WillPostForFood 8mo ago

"it is already showing up as stagnant or declining Western salaries" Real median salary, and real median wages are both rising for the last couple years. Maybe they would have risen faster if there was no AI, but I don't think you can say there has been a discernible impact yet.

overgard 8mo ago
I don't think that's true, if you trust gemini at least.. "In 2025, U.S. software engineer pay is barely keeping pace with inflation, with median compensation growing 2.67% year-over-year compared to 2.7% inflation. While salaries held steady or increased during the 2021-2023 inflationary period, many professionals reported that real purchasing power remained stagnant or dipped, making it difficult to get ahead. "
mxkopy 8mo ago
I’d like a source for that. College graduates are no longer at an employment advantage compared to their uneducated peers. The average age of a new hire increased by 2 years over the past 4 years. Young people in the west have definitely seen declining salaries, if only by virtue of the fact that they’re not being offered at all. https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/economic-commentary/2025/ec-202514-are-young-college-graduates-losing-their-edge-in-the-job-market https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/economic-commentar... https://www.reveliolabs.com/news/social/65-and-still-clocking-in/ https://www.reveliolabs.com/news/social/65-and-still-clockin...
- snowwrestler 8mo ago
  Real wage growth has been positive for the last 3 years: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013?output_view=pct_12mths https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013?output_view=pc...

deleted 8mo ago

[deleted]

simianwords 8mo ago

Funny you ignored the third order effect where the efficiency really does enable lower cost

salawat 8mo ago
Which is never realized. Price points don't decrease. Profit taking increases.

jackfranklyn 8mo ago

[flagged]

intended 8mo ago
What do you mean when you say “AI is reducing training overhead”?
- christoff12 8mo ago
  Basically, "You don't have to understand how this works, just push this button when x, or flip this switch when y." I don't think the impact will be quite as large as some are saying here, but it won't be minimal either.