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The initial moat will be enormous, because it's such a difficult problem. Eventually, it will become more of a commodity-level task, but by then most of the bi
by TulliusCicero 8mo ago
The initial moat will be enormous, because it's such a difficult problem.
Eventually, it will become more of a commodity-level task, but by then most of the big incumbents will already be very established.
- throw310822 8mo agoYeah, that's basically the opposite of what I'm saying. The problem is enormously difficult, but it won't be solved as a problem in itself, it will suddenly become solved as a side effect of better AI, exactly like numerous cognition-related problems got suddenly solved with the advent of LLMs. And we've seen that there are many players working on better AI, and the main ones all maybe one/ two years away from each other. Self driving will become commoditized much before any of the early players can make substantial amounts of money out of it. Compared to LLMs, it's even worse, as self-driving can't really get superhuman and people will happily settle for whatever works acceptably well (where acceptably means at the same level as a good human driver).
- TulliusCicero 8mo agoIt's already been solved city by city, so I don't know what you're talking about.
- throw310822 8mo agoCool, so where can I buy a car in which, wherever I am, I can comfortably sit at the back knowing that it will take me to destination like a good driver? Or that I can summon to come to pick me up?
- TulliusCicero 8mo agoYou can't, because the only actually autonomous cars right now are robotaxis.
- throw310822 8mo agoAh, and why so? Why are they introduced city by city?
- TulliusCicero 8mo agoTo verify they can operate safely in any given city, and because you need operations staff and resources in every city for a robotaxi service. Same reason Tesla is doing it that way.