5 ms·

I really would like to see answers to the four questions at the end. Though I would hazard a guess that the answers to the first three can be summed up as "it's

I really would like to see answers to the four questions at the end. Though I would hazard a guess that the answers to the first three can be summed up as "it's easier and cheaper to let China do the dirty work." The last question I cant answer as I don't understand boom-bust mining cycles. Edit to add: > After all, it turns out tungsten actually isn't hard to find! It's all over the United States. In fact, it's pretty much all over the world. The Wikipedia Tungsten article states the largest reserves are in China followed by Canada, Russia, Vietnam and Bolivia. This contradicts the articles claim. Just because it's all over does not mean it is easy to dig up and refine. Some clarification is needed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tungsten#Production https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tungsten#Production

noleary 9mo ago
Reserves means something specific in the context of minerals! Reserves measure 'economically viable' deposits. [1] There used to be tons of tungsten mines in the USA, e.g. in Colorado linked below. [1] https://resourcecapitalfunds.com/insights/rcf-partners-blog/mineral-resources-reserves/ https://resourcecapitalfunds.com/insights/rcf-partners-blog/... [2] https://coloradogeologicalsurvey.org/publications/tungsten-mines-colorado/ https://coloradogeologicalsurvey.org/publications/tungsten-m...
- bell-cot 9mo ago
  Yes, but it should be emphasized how dependent "Reserves" are on both exploration work, and current assumptions about future mining/refining/market conditions. China's secret to having most of the world's Reserves may be that they bored a lot more test holes (to actually know "the rock in >THIS< spot is X% tungsten") than anyone else, then made some more-optimistic assumptions.
  - to11mtm 9mo ago
    Ehhh, it could go both ways (as far as over-optimism) On one hand, historically there's a lot of sparsely populated land; that makes it easier to both do exploration and partition off the land. Also there is China's more central economy planning; i.e. if it's truly worth it they are more willing to do something about relocating people while 'selling it better' (which is again helped by the sparse populations where they are looking.) That is, unless you are saying they fudged the sampling.... However, that's still other a weird reversal of the geopolitical playbook; that is, one could argue that the -smartest- thing the US/EU can do, is to import whatever natural materials they can, until the 'clock' runs out, then the native materials can be extracted (even at the 'ecologically correct' cost.)
lkbm 9mo ago
> The Wikipedia Tungsten article states the largest reserves are in China followed by Canada, Russia, Vietnam and Bolivia. This contradicts the articles claim. Just because it's all over does not mean it is easy to dig up and refine. It doesn't contradict the claim. Just because it's all over does not mean it is easy to dig up and refine, but just because it's not the largest reserve doesn't mean it's not easy to dig up and refine.
Tuna-Fish 9mo ago
> The Wikipedia Tungsten article states the largest reserves are in China followed by Canada, Russia, Vietnam and Bolivia. This contradicts the articles claim. No, it does not, it's just a confusion of the term reserves. That's not on you, though, because everyone constantly gets it wrong. Reserves are not estimates of the amount of a mineral underground. To be counted as proven reserve, you need to show that the mineral is economically extractable at market prices. Specifically, by starting to extract them. They are "working inventory" of mines that have been developed, they are not our understanding of how the minerals are distributed. They are also a function of commodity prices, not something that remains constant unless you dig them. China has so much of the worldwide production and reserves because mining is an extremely capital-intensive industry, that is also sensitive to labor costs and environmental legislation. For a long time, China had the trifecta of lax legislation, cheap labor, and sufficient political stability to attract investment. US or Europe can't compete because mining there is more expensive, the third world can't compete because people are wary of investing billions into projects that might go to zero for political stability reasons. Should the market prices of key minerals rise to the point where it makes sense to mine them outside of China, reserves will be developed and production will shift. This will probably require political will to either tariff Chinese production or subsidize production outside China, because so far China has wielded mineral exports as a weapon only for brief periods, being careful to release exports to crater prices often enough to kill competing projects.
- a2tech 9mo ago
  The US has lots of tungsten and other minerals. The problem is mining them here--people really don't want to see huge holes in the ground, industrial run off, and ecological collapse. If the fundamentals of international resource extraction changes (which because of the increase in wages and living standards and expectations in China is happening) then we might see wide spread and rapid mining happening in the US. My questions in that scenario are 1) who will work these mines? The US is running at very high employment right now, and mining is very hard work 2) where would our ore refinement equipment and skills come from? China has 50 years of ore refinement development behind them. They have infrastructure to BUILD the infrastructure for ore extraction and refinement. My understanding is that they're uninterested in selling that currently 3) then all the other local issues like where will they be able to sell locals on building giant mines, dealing with the heavy traffic, potential environmental concerns, etc.
petre 9mo ago
> The Wikipedia Tungsten article states the largest reserves are in China followed by Canada, Russia, Vietnam and Bolivia Easy one, then. The administration will kidnap the president of Bolivia, install a replacement and strike a minerals deal.
- matheusmoreira 9mo ago
  This doesn't even seem that far fetched at this point. The economic influence of the USA is being eroded at every turn. Their military capabilities could very well turn out to be their last hope one day. South America stands virtually no chance against even a decadent USA. It's actually embarrassing how weak South America is.
  - pjc50 9mo ago
    The problem is that the main military enemy of South America is Other Bits Of South America, especially internal enemies. That's why Costa Rica has no military: can't have a military coup without a military. (also the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguayan_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguayan_War was so devastating that nobody wants to get back to that point)
aeternum 9mo ago
It's often hard to beat bulk mining. When you're already mining a quarter billion tons of iron and 5B tons of coal, you get a decent amount of all other trace(rare-earth) metals as part of that stream. It's far easier to just collect tungsten as it rolls down your conveyor belt.
- kbelder 9mo ago
  The Minecraft paradigm.
  - user____name 9mo ago
    Look, we can't just recreate the mining industry, it would crowd out all others, no more doctors and engineers, the children yearn for the mines!
CGMthrowaway 9mo ago
>I really would like to see answers to the four questions at the end The bottom line is that China has the biggest most economical tungsten reserves, they have been able to flood the market with predatory pricing for the last 40 years and they almost completely control the ore processing bottleneck as well. For this to change the US govt would have to enter major agreements w US mines, offering relaxed permitting and a guaranteed price
- gmerc 9mo ago
  Wait until you find out the US is flooding the software market with "predatory" SaaS products. Point being, it's only "predatory" if others do it.
  - fc417fc802 9mo ago
    Textbook whataboutism. I agree that US BigTech strategy of dumping free product is predatory and arguably a regulatory failure (or success, depending on your values and goals). But that's got absolutely nothing to do with the current discussion.
giantg2 9mo ago
"it's easier and cheaper to let China do the dirty work." This is true for just about any industrial due to the environmental regulation disparity.

noleary 9mo ago

Reserves means something specific in the context of minerals! Reserves measure 'economically viable' deposits. [1] There used to be tons of tungsten mines in the USA, e.g. in Colorado linked below. [1] https://resourcecapitalfunds.com/insights/rcf-partners-blog/mineral-resources-reserves/ https://resourcecapitalfunds.com/insights/rcf-partners-blog/... [2] https://coloradogeologicalsurvey.org/publications/tungsten-mines-colorado/ https://coloradogeologicalsurvey.org/publications/tungsten-m...

bell-cot 9mo ago
Yes, but it should be emphasized how dependent "Reserves" are on both exploration work, and current assumptions about future mining/refining/market conditions. China's secret to having most of the world's Reserves may be that they bored a lot more test holes (to actually know "the rock in >THIS< spot is X% tungsten") than anyone else, then made some more-optimistic assumptions.
- to11mtm 9mo ago
  Ehhh, it could go both ways (as far as over-optimism) On one hand, historically there's a lot of sparsely populated land; that makes it easier to both do exploration and partition off the land. Also there is China's more central economy planning; i.e. if it's truly worth it they are more willing to do something about relocating people while 'selling it better' (which is again helped by the sparse populations where they are looking.) That is, unless you are saying they fudged the sampling.... However, that's still other a weird reversal of the geopolitical playbook; that is, one could argue that the -smartest- thing the US/EU can do, is to import whatever natural materials they can, until the 'clock' runs out, then the native materials can be extracted (even at the 'ecologically correct' cost.)

lkbm 9mo ago

> The Wikipedia Tungsten article states the largest reserves are in China followed by Canada, Russia, Vietnam and Bolivia. This contradicts the articles claim. Just because it's all over does not mean it is easy to dig up and refine. It doesn't contradict the claim. Just because it's all over does not mean it is easy to dig up and refine, but just because it's not the largest reserve doesn't mean it's not easy to dig up and refine.

Tuna-Fish 9mo ago

> The Wikipedia Tungsten article states the largest reserves are in China followed by Canada, Russia, Vietnam and Bolivia. This contradicts the articles claim. No, it does not, it's just a confusion of the term reserves. That's not on you, though, because everyone constantly gets it wrong. Reserves are not estimates of the amount of a mineral underground. To be counted as proven reserve, you need to show that the mineral is economically extractable at market prices. Specifically, by starting to extract them. They are "working inventory" of mines that have been developed, they are not our understanding of how the minerals are distributed. They are also a function of commodity prices, not something that remains constant unless you dig them. China has so much of the worldwide production and reserves because mining is an extremely capital-intensive industry, that is also sensitive to labor costs and environmental legislation. For a long time, China had the trifecta of lax legislation, cheap labor, and sufficient political stability to attract investment. US or Europe can't compete because mining there is more expensive, the third world can't compete because people are wary of investing billions into projects that might go to zero for political stability reasons. Should the market prices of key minerals rise to the point where it makes sense to mine them outside of China, reserves will be developed and production will shift. This will probably require political will to either tariff Chinese production or subsidize production outside China, because so far China has wielded mineral exports as a weapon only for brief periods, being careful to release exports to crater prices often enough to kill competing projects.

a2tech 9mo ago
The US has lots of tungsten and other minerals. The problem is mining them here--people really don't want to see huge holes in the ground, industrial run off, and ecological collapse. If the fundamentals of international resource extraction changes (which because of the increase in wages and living standards and expectations in China is happening) then we might see wide spread and rapid mining happening in the US. My questions in that scenario are 1) who will work these mines? The US is running at very high employment right now, and mining is very hard work 2) where would our ore refinement equipment and skills come from? China has 50 years of ore refinement development behind them. They have infrastructure to BUILD the infrastructure for ore extraction and refinement. My understanding is that they're uninterested in selling that currently 3) then all the other local issues like where will they be able to sell locals on building giant mines, dealing with the heavy traffic, potential environmental concerns, etc.

petre 9mo ago

> The Wikipedia Tungsten article states the largest reserves are in China followed by Canada, Russia, Vietnam and Bolivia Easy one, then. The administration will kidnap the president of Bolivia, install a replacement and strike a minerals deal.

matheusmoreira 9mo ago
This doesn't even seem that far fetched at this point. The economic influence of the USA is being eroded at every turn. Their military capabilities could very well turn out to be their last hope one day. South America stands virtually no chance against even a decadent USA. It's actually embarrassing how weak South America is.
- pjc50 9mo ago
  The problem is that the main military enemy of South America is Other Bits Of South America, especially internal enemies. That's why Costa Rica has no military: can't have a military coup without a military. (also the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguayan_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguayan_War was so devastating that nobody wants to get back to that point)

aeternum 9mo ago

It's often hard to beat bulk mining. When you're already mining a quarter billion tons of iron and 5B tons of coal, you get a decent amount of all other trace(rare-earth) metals as part of that stream. It's far easier to just collect tungsten as it rolls down your conveyor belt.

kbelder 9mo ago
The Minecraft paradigm.
- user____name 9mo ago
  Look, we can't just recreate the mining industry, it would crowd out all others, no more doctors and engineers, the children yearn for the mines!

CGMthrowaway 9mo ago

>I really would like to see answers to the four questions at the end The bottom line is that China has the biggest most economical tungsten reserves, they have been able to flood the market with predatory pricing for the last 40 years and they almost completely control the ore processing bottleneck as well. For this to change the US govt would have to enter major agreements w US mines, offering relaxed permitting and a guaranteed price

gmerc 9mo ago
Wait until you find out the US is flooding the software market with "predatory" SaaS products. Point being, it's only "predatory" if others do it.
- fc417fc802 9mo ago
  Textbook whataboutism. I agree that US BigTech strategy of dumping free product is predatory and arguably a regulatory failure (or success, depending on your values and goals). But that's got absolutely nothing to do with the current discussion.

giantg2 9mo ago

"it's easier and cheaper to let China do the dirty work." This is true for just about any industrial due to the environmental regulation disparity.