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its certain, i ensure you. taiwan wont get the treat like Hong Kong before. Hong Kong proves the one country two system policy is a failure. the only result is

its certain, i ensure you. taiwan wont get the treat like Hong Kong before. Hong Kong proves the one country two system policy is a failure. the only result is war and taiwan will lose

stickfigure 8mo ago
> taiwan will lose That depends on how cowardly the rest of the world acts if/when the time comes.
- yanhangyhy 8mo ago
  looks at Ukraine, its white people and NATO wont fight for it. how about another group of chinse vs chinese in far far away? and the global south supports china more?
  - nradov 8mo ago
    That's a total non sequitur. Ukraine wasn't a NATO member so why would NATO fight for it? (Several NATO members have given substantial aid to Ukraine.) In terms of a potential conflict between mainland China and Taiwan, the only NATO member with the capacity to do anything is the USA. The other players will be Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Australia so the outcome will largely depend on whether they decide to get involved.
    - yanhangyhy 8mo ago
      > Ukraine wasn't a NATO member so why would NATO fight for it? so is taiwan. > The other players will be Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Australia so the i can ensure you Vietnam and SK wont. and we want Japan to join so much. Aus is like a bonus maybe
- Galanwe 8mo ago
  > That depends on how cowardly the rest of the world acts if/when the time comes. Or how weary of not having access to TSMC the rest of the world is.
  - komali2 8mo ago
    The PRC will happily sell chips to the West. I live in Taiwan, I don't want it to happen, but people need to stop acting like countries will prevent an invasion because it means the CPC will control chip manufacturing. The choice is between possible nuclear war, or, the 5090s are more expensive and sometimes Americans can't buy them when the PRC is punishing the west for something.
    - lossolo 8mo ago
      Honestly, this is the most reasonable comment here, especially coming from someone in Taiwan. I hear similar views when I'm in Asia, which are very different from what I hear back in the West.
    - yanhangyhy 8mo ago
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      - komali2 8mo ago
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        yanhangyhy 8mo ago
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        komali2 8mo ago
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        yanhangyhy 8mo ago
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        dang 8mo ago
- skinnymuch 8mo ago
  This thread casually talks about Taiwan being a vassal state of the US during a civil war and Hong Kong being a colony of the British. Yet the world, largely the global south, should intervene and help the global north to exploit the rest of the world more? Every one gets that far away countries across the world can’t put military bases right next to Europe or the US. However when it comes to China, that is not only acceptable but it’s the anti-cowardly move to support outsider aggressors.
  - komali2 8mo ago
    > can’t put military bases right next to Europe or the US Indeed, Japan and Korea and the Philippines have American military bases on them. You mentioned Taiwan, curious why? It has no American military bases. Perhaps of all the countries in the region, it's the most sovereign in that sense.
    - skinnymuch 8mo ago
      Interesting. I didn’t know there were no US military bases there. Still Taiwan exists as it does because of the US meddling across the world.
      - komali2 8mo ago
        This doesn't make any sense, the USA hasn't touched anything about Taiwan in any meaningful way ever since it became the ROC, and certainly not at all since the KMT was overthrown. In fact American overtures to control chip manufacturing here were rejected explicitly as "economic imperialism." What's with this Americentric geopolitical analysis?
        yanhangyhy 8mo ago
        taiwan only exist because USA navy intervene in the war
        komali2 8mo ago
- zelphirkalt 8mo ago
  Not really. The world got other problems. Europe is out for now, since we got Fascists at our doorstep trying to conquer Ukraine. The US has the orange clown as president, who is cozy with Putin. I don't think you can ascribe it to others being cowards, if "the world" doesn't react to protect Taiwan. It is right at China's doorstep. The logistic imbalance of trying to protect Taiwan, being this close to China is insane. In the end, if a war happens, it will be idiotic again, from an economical point of view and from a humanitarian point of view. Economically, of course it will cost huge amount of resources to conquer Taiwan, and it will only disturb trade and what is already established on Taiwan. From a humanitarian point of view, of course many people will die. The smartest China could do, would be to return to a soft power approach, and continue to develop mainland China, to continue to rival and even surpass Taiwan/Taipei. There are many young people, who don't have the walls in their minds, that the older population has. They don't want war, they want their freedom, and they want a high living standard. All this would be theoretically possible, if China didn't let ideology rule, but instead went for the economically best route, which is most certainly not an invasion.
  - nradov 8mo ago
    China's takeover of Hong Kong proved that any notion of "one country, two systems" is a total lie and assurances from the Chinese Communist Party are completely worthless. There's no coming back from that, at least as long as Xi Jinping remains in power. Young people in Taiwan are less supportive of reintegration with the mainland than ever before. Fewer of them even have direct family ties there now.
    - zelphirkalt 8mo ago
      > Young people in Taiwan are less supportive of reintegration with the mainland than ever before. Well, go figure, if you run military "exercises" at the doorstep of your neighbor, people are not gonna like you very much, duh. But there was a time before more recent escalations, when lots of young Taiwanese people did not think too badly about being part of China. That's why I said that the smartest move would be (or would have been) to continue an approach of soft power and development, to rival life in Taiwan. Give the people comfort and high living standard, and they are less likely to dislike you.
- somenameforme 8mo ago
  I don't think this is realistic. A few thoughts in no particular order: - War is logistics and you're talking about trying to get involved in a war, that would necessitate supply lines thousands of miles long, between two countries that are separated by 80 miles. - China is extremely technologically advanced with the largest military in the world, by a wide margin. - China is the at-scale manufacturing king of the world. In a shift to a war economy, nobody would be able to come even remotely close to competing. They parallel the US in WW2 in a number of ways. - China is a nuclear power, meaning getting involved is going to be Ukraine style indirect aid to try to avoid direct conflict and nuclear escalation. - Any attempt to engage in things like sanctions would likely hurt the sanctioners significantly more than China. - The "rest of the world" you're referring to is the anglosphere, EU, and a few oddballs like Japan or South Korea. This makes up less than 15% of the world, and declining. - War fatigue is real. The US really wanted to invade Syria, but no matter how hard we beat the war drums, people just weren't down with it. I think this is because people saw major echoes of Iraq at the time, and Taiwan will have a far louder echo of Ukraine. This isn't a show many people will be enthusiastic about rerunning.
  - SideburnsOfDoom 8mo ago
    > supply lines thousands of miles long, between two countries that are separated by 80 miles I think this one is particularly important. IIRC, it's usually phrased something like "if the USA sends aircraft carriers across the pacific, then China has an unsinkable aircraft carrier 80 miles away: the mainland". It's a huge home turf advantage. The USA seems to have a very low appetite for helping allies against bullies at present too. And no appetite for taking US soldier casualties.
    - stickfigure 8mo ago
      Taiwan is also unsinkable.
  - stickfigure 8mo ago
    * The US has the largest military logistics system in the world and regularly uses it to fight wars. It's a well exercised muscle. * Being close to the front lines is as much of a liability as an asset. China's ports and shipbuilding facilities will be bombed out, the US' will not. * This will be a naval and air war. You can't march troops across the strait, and as we've seen in Ukraine, flying them is a no-go either. * China hasn't fought a war within the living memory of anyone of fighting age. * You have a weird way of trying to diminish what represents most of the economic power of the world. Let's also add the Philippines and Vietnam to those "oddballs". China will be alone. And don't forget that China's population is shrinking. * War fatigue is not an issue here when it comes to Taiwan. Adventurism in Venezuela was emboldening. We'll see what happens with Iran. I live in the generally pacifist part of the US, and I think most folks would demand that we intervene. The most likely start to hostilities will be if China declares a blockade. Someone in the US will call their bluff - with warships. If China starts shooting, we're in a war. Moral outrage is an (often unfortunate) American trait.
- FpUser 8mo ago
  You really believe that "the rest of the world" countries should conscript citizens and go to war to help Taiwan? Most people if faced with this choice would direct you to the place where the sun does not shine.
- mvdtnz 8mo ago
  Based on how cowardly the world acted when Russia invaded Ukraine (and continues to act) I don't have much hope for Taiwan.
- insane_dreamer 8mo ago
  rightly or wrongly, I'm quite confident the US will not go to war with China if it invades Taiwan - the American people simply wouldn't support it. It's one thing to get public support for dropping a few bombs on a tiny opponent with little risk, as the US regularly does, it's another entirely to go to war with a major power with a very high casualty rate. The US wouldn't have even entered WW2 (as much as the administration may have wanted to) if the Japanese hadn't foolishly attacked Pearl Harbor and then Germany declared war as well. But unlike Japan and Germany, China has the manufacturing capacity and access to raw resources that would make it a very different enemy.
throw283734 8mo ago
> Hong Kong proves the one country two system policy is a failure. Does Macau prove one country two systems is a success?

its certain, i ensure you. taiwan wont get the treat like Hong Kong before. Hong Kong proves the one country two system policy is a failure. the only result is war and taiwan will lose

stickfigure 8mo ago

> taiwan will lose That depends on how cowardly the rest of the world acts if/when the time comes.

yanhangyhy 8mo ago
looks at Ukraine, its white people and NATO wont fight for it. how about another group of chinse vs chinese in far far away? and the global south supports china more?
- nradov 8mo ago
  That's a total non sequitur. Ukraine wasn't a NATO member so why would NATO fight for it? (Several NATO members have given substantial aid to Ukraine.) In terms of a potential conflict between mainland China and Taiwan, the only NATO member with the capacity to do anything is the USA. The other players will be Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Australia so the outcome will largely depend on whether they decide to get involved.
  - yanhangyhy 8mo ago
    > Ukraine wasn't a NATO member so why would NATO fight for it? so is taiwan. > The other players will be Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Australia so the i can ensure you Vietnam and SK wont. and we want Japan to join so much. Aus is like a bonus maybe
Galanwe 8mo ago
> That depends on how cowardly the rest of the world acts if/when the time comes. Or how weary of not having access to TSMC the rest of the world is.
- komali2 8mo ago
  The PRC will happily sell chips to the West. I live in Taiwan, I don't want it to happen, but people need to stop acting like countries will prevent an invasion because it means the CPC will control chip manufacturing. The choice is between possible nuclear war, or, the 5090s are more expensive and sometimes Americans can't buy them when the PRC is punishing the west for something.
  - lossolo 8mo ago
    Honestly, this is the most reasonable comment here, especially coming from someone in Taiwan. I hear similar views when I'm in Asia, which are very different from what I hear back in the West.
  - yanhangyhy 8mo ago
    [flagged]
    - komali2 8mo ago
      [flagged]
      - yanhangyhy 8mo ago
        [flagged]
        komali2 8mo ago
        [flagged]
        yanhangyhy 8mo ago
        [flagged]
        dang 8mo ago
skinnymuch 8mo ago
This thread casually talks about Taiwan being a vassal state of the US during a civil war and Hong Kong being a colony of the British. Yet the world, largely the global south, should intervene and help the global north to exploit the rest of the world more? Every one gets that far away countries across the world can’t put military bases right next to Europe or the US. However when it comes to China, that is not only acceptable but it’s the anti-cowardly move to support outsider aggressors.
- komali2 8mo ago
  > can’t put military bases right next to Europe or the US Indeed, Japan and Korea and the Philippines have American military bases on them. You mentioned Taiwan, curious why? It has no American military bases. Perhaps of all the countries in the region, it's the most sovereign in that sense.
  - skinnymuch 8mo ago
    Interesting. I didn’t know there were no US military bases there. Still Taiwan exists as it does because of the US meddling across the world.
    - komali2 8mo ago
      This doesn't make any sense, the USA hasn't touched anything about Taiwan in any meaningful way ever since it became the ROC, and certainly not at all since the KMT was overthrown. In fact American overtures to control chip manufacturing here were rejected explicitly as "economic imperialism." What's with this Americentric geopolitical analysis?
      - yanhangyhy 8mo ago
        taiwan only exist because USA navy intervene in the war
        komali2 8mo ago
zelphirkalt 8mo ago
Not really. The world got other problems. Europe is out for now, since we got Fascists at our doorstep trying to conquer Ukraine. The US has the orange clown as president, who is cozy with Putin. I don't think you can ascribe it to others being cowards, if "the world" doesn't react to protect Taiwan. It is right at China's doorstep. The logistic imbalance of trying to protect Taiwan, being this close to China is insane. In the end, if a war happens, it will be idiotic again, from an economical point of view and from a humanitarian point of view. Economically, of course it will cost huge amount of resources to conquer Taiwan, and it will only disturb trade and what is already established on Taiwan. From a humanitarian point of view, of course many people will die. The smartest China could do, would be to return to a soft power approach, and continue to develop mainland China, to continue to rival and even surpass Taiwan/Taipei. There are many young people, who don't have the walls in their minds, that the older population has. They don't want war, they want their freedom, and they want a high living standard. All this would be theoretically possible, if China didn't let ideology rule, but instead went for the economically best route, which is most certainly not an invasion.
- nradov 8mo ago
  China's takeover of Hong Kong proved that any notion of "one country, two systems" is a total lie and assurances from the Chinese Communist Party are completely worthless. There's no coming back from that, at least as long as Xi Jinping remains in power. Young people in Taiwan are less supportive of reintegration with the mainland than ever before. Fewer of them even have direct family ties there now.
  - zelphirkalt 8mo ago
    > Young people in Taiwan are less supportive of reintegration with the mainland than ever before. Well, go figure, if you run military "exercises" at the doorstep of your neighbor, people are not gonna like you very much, duh. But there was a time before more recent escalations, when lots of young Taiwanese people did not think too badly about being part of China. That's why I said that the smartest move would be (or would have been) to continue an approach of soft power and development, to rival life in Taiwan. Give the people comfort and high living standard, and they are less likely to dislike you.
somenameforme 8mo ago
I don't think this is realistic. A few thoughts in no particular order: - War is logistics and you're talking about trying to get involved in a war, that would necessitate supply lines thousands of miles long, between two countries that are separated by 80 miles. - China is extremely technologically advanced with the largest military in the world, by a wide margin. - China is the at-scale manufacturing king of the world. In a shift to a war economy, nobody would be able to come even remotely close to competing. They parallel the US in WW2 in a number of ways. - China is a nuclear power, meaning getting involved is going to be Ukraine style indirect aid to try to avoid direct conflict and nuclear escalation. - Any attempt to engage in things like sanctions would likely hurt the sanctioners significantly more than China. - The "rest of the world" you're referring to is the anglosphere, EU, and a few oddballs like Japan or South Korea. This makes up less than 15% of the world, and declining. - War fatigue is real. The US really wanted to invade Syria, but no matter how hard we beat the war drums, people just weren't down with it. I think this is because people saw major echoes of Iraq at the time, and Taiwan will have a far louder echo of Ukraine. This isn't a show many people will be enthusiastic about rerunning.
- SideburnsOfDoom 8mo ago
  > supply lines thousands of miles long, between two countries that are separated by 80 miles I think this one is particularly important. IIRC, it's usually phrased something like "if the USA sends aircraft carriers across the pacific, then China has an unsinkable aircraft carrier 80 miles away: the mainland". It's a huge home turf advantage. The USA seems to have a very low appetite for helping allies against bullies at present too. And no appetite for taking US soldier casualties.
  - stickfigure 8mo ago
    Taiwan is also unsinkable.
- stickfigure 8mo ago
  * The US has the largest military logistics system in the world and regularly uses it to fight wars. It's a well exercised muscle. * Being close to the front lines is as much of a liability as an asset. China's ports and shipbuilding facilities will be bombed out, the US' will not. * This will be a naval and air war. You can't march troops across the strait, and as we've seen in Ukraine, flying them is a no-go either. * China hasn't fought a war within the living memory of anyone of fighting age. * You have a weird way of trying to diminish what represents most of the economic power of the world. Let's also add the Philippines and Vietnam to those "oddballs". China will be alone. And don't forget that China's population is shrinking. * War fatigue is not an issue here when it comes to Taiwan. Adventurism in Venezuela was emboldening. We'll see what happens with Iran. I live in the generally pacifist part of the US, and I think most folks would demand that we intervene. The most likely start to hostilities will be if China declares a blockade. Someone in the US will call their bluff - with warships. If China starts shooting, we're in a war. Moral outrage is an (often unfortunate) American trait.
FpUser 8mo ago
You really believe that "the rest of the world" countries should conscript citizens and go to war to help Taiwan? Most people if faced with this choice would direct you to the place where the sun does not shine.
mvdtnz 8mo ago
Based on how cowardly the world acted when Russia invaded Ukraine (and continues to act) I don't have much hope for Taiwan.
insane_dreamer 8mo ago
rightly or wrongly, I'm quite confident the US will not go to war with China if it invades Taiwan - the American people simply wouldn't support it. It's one thing to get public support for dropping a few bombs on a tiny opponent with little risk, as the US regularly does, it's another entirely to go to war with a major power with a very high casualty rate. The US wouldn't have even entered WW2 (as much as the administration may have wanted to) if the Japanese hadn't foolishly attacked Pearl Harbor and then Germany declared war as well. But unlike Japan and Germany, China has the manufacturing capacity and access to raw resources that would make it a very different enemy.

throw283734 8mo ago

> Hong Kong proves the one country two system policy is a failure. Does Macau prove one country two systems is a success?