4 ms·

That seems pretty reasonable, yes. That is like asking if putting a low-cost Ops Research specialist in every company could make a 5% difference in operations -

by roenxi 9mo ago

That seems pretty reasonable, yes. That is like asking if putting a low-cost Ops Research specialist in every company could make a 5% difference in operations - yes it could. Making resource-efficient decisions is not something that comes naturally to humans and having a system that consistently makes high quality game-theoretic recommendations would be huge. Bunch of tiny companies would love to hire a mathematician to optimise what they are doing to get a 5-10% improvement. Unfortunately a 5-10% improvement in a small business can't justify the cost of hiring another person, and good mathematicians with business sense and empathy are a rare commodity.

nradov 9mo ago
If that seems reasonable to you then you don't know anything about residential construction. The problems that homebuilders face aren't amenable to mathematical solutions. They have to deal with permitting issues, corrupt / incompetent government officials, supplier delays, bad weather, flakey workers, etc. The notion of a 5% improvement from LLM is ludicrously naive.
- roenxi 9mo ago
  The first 2 are very LLM amenable, the last 3 are very mathematical-solution amenable (optimising around issues like that is basically what Ops Research does). I don't see what your argument is here. The list of people claiming that maths won't work who then get bulldozed by mathematicians is long.
  - direwolf20 9mo ago
    How will the LLM bypass the corrupt government official?
    - cindyllm 9mo ago
      [dead]
    - roenxi 9mo ago
      Because they make it much easier to audit what decisions are being made and how reasonable they were. Corruption relies on not being too well known - once people can start pointing to specific decisions rather than a general "we know there is corruption here somewhere" it is hard to sustain.
      - hattmall 9mo ago
        It's not like people don't know who they are though? It's not some secret formula of who is corrupt. It's everyone that's been in position for any length of time. If you don't yield to the corruption you won't be in your job long. The degree of corruption is variable and perhaps the LLM could find the most efficient wheel to grease and person to lean on but then you just have the next company doing more of the same.
      - maigret 9mo ago
        LOL are you looking at the news lately. Everything is blatantly in the open now.
- jopsen 9mo ago
  Even if you ignore the red tape. At some point you're stacking bricks and hitting nails. AI just won't make you stack bricks much faster :)
jopsen 9mo ago
Lots of jobs like daycare, teachers, cleaning, the material costs are near zero and your ability to increase productivity using technology is very low. You can reduce quality of cleaning. But it's very hard to clean faster and better at the same time. These industries are not going to be optimized by an AI. The only optimization is lower overhead or lower salaries. Sure, we could have robots in daycare, but I don't think lack of AI is why my wife would have concerns :)
- cman1444 9mo ago
  Of course there's jobs that don't have a productivity boost from AI. The question is whether across the entire economy there will be a 5% GDP boost. Teachers, cleaners, and daycare workers may see 0% gains, but don't be surprised if that is made up for by 10% gains the productivity of tech, law, marketing, advertising, manufacturing, government, etc. (okay maybe not government).
  - amunozo 9mo ago
    How can advertising and marketing become more profitable from this? It's a genuine question, but I don't see how making advertising and marketing easier for everybody and hence flooding the already flooded market would result in increased productivity.
    - cman1444 9mo ago
      By significantly reducing the cost of creating the advertisements. Want to air a commercial? You no longer have to have actors, sets, designers, costumes, etc. just ask AI to make you a commercial and describe what you want it to look like. Consider all the labor and capital spent across all the advertising real estate in the world. Commercial, online ads, billboards, labeling. The inputs to make all these things are now greatly reduced. To increase productivity, it doesn't matter that the market is flooded, just that it's much easier to make these things.
      - amunozo 9mo ago

by roenxi 9mo ago

nradov 9mo ago

If that seems reasonable to you then you don't know anything about residential construction. The problems that homebuilders face aren't amenable to mathematical solutions. They have to deal with permitting issues, corrupt / incompetent government officials, supplier delays, bad weather, flakey workers, etc. The notion of a 5% improvement from LLM is ludicrously naive.

roenxi 9mo ago
The first 2 are very LLM amenable, the last 3 are very mathematical-solution amenable (optimising around issues like that is basically what Ops Research does). I don't see what your argument is here. The list of people claiming that maths won't work who then get bulldozed by mathematicians is long.
- direwolf20 9mo ago
  How will the LLM bypass the corrupt government official?
  - cindyllm 9mo ago
    [dead]
  - roenxi 9mo ago
    Because they make it much easier to audit what decisions are being made and how reasonable they were. Corruption relies on not being too well known - once people can start pointing to specific decisions rather than a general "we know there is corruption here somewhere" it is hard to sustain.
    - hattmall 9mo ago
      It's not like people don't know who they are though? It's not some secret formula of who is corrupt. It's everyone that's been in position for any length of time. If you don't yield to the corruption you won't be in your job long. The degree of corruption is variable and perhaps the LLM could find the most efficient wheel to grease and person to lean on but then you just have the next company doing more of the same.
    - maigret 9mo ago
      LOL are you looking at the news lately. Everything is blatantly in the open now.
jopsen 9mo ago
Even if you ignore the red tape. At some point you're stacking bricks and hitting nails. AI just won't make you stack bricks much faster :)

jopsen 9mo ago

Lots of jobs like daycare, teachers, cleaning, the material costs are near zero and your ability to increase productivity using technology is very low. You can reduce quality of cleaning. But it's very hard to clean faster and better at the same time. These industries are not going to be optimized by an AI. The only optimization is lower overhead or lower salaries. Sure, we could have robots in daycare, but I don't think lack of AI is why my wife would have concerns :)

cman1444 9mo ago
Of course there's jobs that don't have a productivity boost from AI. The question is whether across the entire economy there will be a 5% GDP boost. Teachers, cleaners, and daycare workers may see 0% gains, but don't be surprised if that is made up for by 10% gains the productivity of tech, law, marketing, advertising, manufacturing, government, etc. (okay maybe not government).
- amunozo 9mo ago
  How can advertising and marketing become more profitable from this? It's a genuine question, but I don't see how making advertising and marketing easier for everybody and hence flooding the already flooded market would result in increased productivity.
  - cman1444 9mo ago
    By significantly reducing the cost of creating the advertisements. Want to air a commercial? You no longer have to have actors, sets, designers, costumes, etc. just ask AI to make you a commercial and describe what you want it to look like. Consider all the labor and capital spent across all the advertising real estate in the world. Commercial, online ads, billboards, labeling. The inputs to make all these things are now greatly reduced. To increase productivity, it doesn't matter that the market is flooded, just that it's much easier to make these things.
    - amunozo 9mo ago