4 ms·

Sounds like the researchers behind https://ai-2027.com/ https://ai-2027.com/ haven't been too far off so far.

cootsnuck 8mo ago
We'll see. The first two things that they said would move from "emerging tech" to "currently exists" by April 2026 are: - "Someone you know has an AI boyfriend" - "Generalist agent AIs that can function as a personal secretary" I'd be curious how many people know someone that is sincerely in a relationship with an AI. And also I'd love to know anyone that has honestly replaced their human assistant / secretary with an AI agent. I have an assistant, they're much more valuable beyond rote input-output tasks... Also I encourage my assistant to use LLMs when they can be useful like for supplementing research tasks. Fundamentally though, I just don't think any AI agents I've seen can legitimately function as a personal secretary. Also they said by April 2026: > 22,000 Reliable Agent copies thinking at 13x human speed And when moving from "Dec 2025" to "Apr 2026" they switch "Unreliable Agent" to "Reliable Agent". So again, we'll see. I'm very doubtful given the whole OpenClaw mess. Nothing about that says "two months away from reliable".
- Rudybega 8mo ago
  I think they immediately corrected their median timelines for takeoff to 2028 upon releasing the article (I believe there was a math mistake or something initially), so all those dates can probably be bumped back a few months. Regardless, the trend seems fairly on track.
- zozbot234 8mo ago
  > Someone you know has an AI boyfriend MyBoyfriendIsAI is a thing > Generalist agent AIs that can function as a personal secretary Isn't that what MoltBot/OpenClaw is all about? So far these look like successful predictions.
  - ainch 8mo ago
    Moltbot is an attempt to do that. Would you hire it as a personal secretary and entrust all your personal data to it?
    - danpalmer 8mo ago
      Only people who haven't had a secretary would think it's a personal secretary. Like, it can't even answer the phone.
      - deleted 8mo ago
        [deleted]
      - fragmede 8mo ago
        There are plenty of companies that sell an AI assistant that answers the phone as a service, they just aren't named OpenAI or Anthropic. They'll let callers book an appointment onto your calendar, even!
        danpalmer 8mo ago
        No, there are companies that sell voice activated phone trees, but no one is getting results out of unstructured, arbitrary phone call answering with actions taken by an LLM. I'm sure there are research demos in big companies, I'm sure some AI bro has done this with the Twilio API, but no one is seriously doing this. All it takes is one "can you take this to the post office", the simplest, of requests, and you're in a dead end of at best refusal, but more likely role-play.
        PranayKumarJain 8mo ago
        Agreed that “unstructured arbitrary phone calls + arbitrary actions” is where things go to die. What does work in production (at least for SMB/customer-support style calls) is making the problem less magical: 1) narrow domain + explicit capabilities (book/reschedule/cancel, take a message, basic FAQs) 2) strict tool whitelist + typed schemas + confirmations for side effects 3) robust out-of-scope detection + graceful handoff (“I can’t do that, but I can X/Y/Z”) 4) real logs + eval/test harnesses so regressions get caught Once you do that, you can get genuinely useful outcomes without the role-play traps you’re describing. We’ve been building this at eboo.ai (voice agents for businesses). If you’re curious, happy to share the guardrails/eval setup we’ve found most effective.
- Davidzheng 8mo ago
  It's important to remember though (this is besides the point for what you're saying) that job displacement of things like secretaries from AI do not require it to be a near perfect replacement. There are many other factors (for example if it's much cheaper and can do part of the work it can dramatically shrink demand as people can shift to an imperfect replacement in AI)
- speed_spread 8mo ago
  People have been in love with machines for a long time. It's just that the machines didn't talk back so we didn't grant them the "partner" status. Wait for car+LLM and you'll have a killer combo.
  - fragmede 8mo ago
    KITT, is that you?
YawningAngel 8mo ago
I don't think generative AI is even close to making model development 50% faster
JackYoustra 8mo ago
> researchers that's certainly one way to refer to Scott Alexander
- apetresc 8mo ago
  Scott Alexander essentially provided editing and promotion for AI 2027 (and did a great job of it, I might add). Are you unaware of the actual researchers behind the forecasting/modelling work behind it, and you thought it was actually all done by a blogger? Or are you just being dismissive for fun?
  - JackYoustra 8mo ago
    tbh mostly dismissive of Scott Alexander for fun, couldn't quite help myself
beernet 8mo ago
Only on HN will people still doubt what is happening right in front of their eyes. I understand that putting things into perspective is important, still, the type of downplaying we can see in the comments here is not only funny but also has a dangerous dimension to it. Ironically, these are the exact same people who will claim "we should have prepared better!" once the effects become more and more visible. Dear super engineers, while I feel sorry that your job and passion become a commodity right in front of you, please stay out the way.
0x1ceb00da 8mo ago
Is gpt5.3 200x bigger than gpt4? Looks like openai used this fanfiction as its marketing strategy

We'll see. The first two things that they said would move from "emerging tech" to "currently exists" by April 2026 are: - "Someone you know has an AI boyfriend" - "Generalist agent AIs that can function as a personal secretary" I'd be curious how many people know someone that is sincerely in a relationship with an AI. And also I'd love to know anyone that has honestly replaced their human assistant / secretary with an AI agent. I have an assistant, they're much more valuable beyond rote input-output tasks... Also I encourage my assistant to use LLMs when they can be useful like for supplementing research tasks. Fundamentally though, I just don't think any AI agents I've seen can legitimately function as a personal secretary. Also they said by April 2026: > 22,000 Reliable Agent copies thinking at 13x human speed And when moving from "Dec 2025" to "Apr 2026" they switch "Unreliable Agent" to "Reliable Agent". So again, we'll see. I'm very doubtful given the whole OpenClaw mess. Nothing about that says "two months away from reliable".

Rudybega 8mo ago
I think they immediately corrected their median timelines for takeoff to 2028 upon releasing the article (I believe there was a math mistake or something initially), so all those dates can probably be bumped back a few months. Regardless, the trend seems fairly on track.
zozbot234 8mo ago
> Someone you know has an AI boyfriend MyBoyfriendIsAI is a thing > Generalist agent AIs that can function as a personal secretary Isn't that what MoltBot/OpenClaw is all about? So far these look like successful predictions.
- ainch 8mo ago
  Moltbot is an attempt to do that. Would you hire it as a personal secretary and entrust all your personal data to it?
  - danpalmer 8mo ago
    Only people who haven't had a secretary would think it's a personal secretary. Like, it can't even answer the phone.
    - deleted 8mo ago
      [deleted]
    - fragmede 8mo ago
      There are plenty of companies that sell an AI assistant that answers the phone as a service, they just aren't named OpenAI or Anthropic. They'll let callers book an appointment onto your calendar, even!
      - danpalmer 8mo ago
        No, there are companies that sell voice activated phone trees, but no one is getting results out of unstructured, arbitrary phone call answering with actions taken by an LLM. I'm sure there are research demos in big companies, I'm sure some AI bro has done this with the Twilio API, but no one is seriously doing this. All it takes is one "can you take this to the post office", the simplest, of requests, and you're in a dead end of at best refusal, but more likely role-play.
        PranayKumarJain 8mo ago
        Agreed that “unstructured arbitrary phone calls + arbitrary actions” is where things go to die. What does work in production (at least for SMB/customer-support style calls) is making the problem less magical: 1) narrow domain + explicit capabilities (book/reschedule/cancel, take a message, basic FAQs) 2) strict tool whitelist + typed schemas + confirmations for side effects 3) robust out-of-scope detection + graceful handoff (“I can’t do that, but I can X/Y/Z”) 4) real logs + eval/test harnesses so regressions get caught Once you do that, you can get genuinely useful outcomes without the role-play traps you’re describing. We’ve been building this at eboo.ai (voice agents for businesses). If you’re curious, happy to share the guardrails/eval setup we’ve found most effective.
Davidzheng 8mo ago
It's important to remember though (this is besides the point for what you're saying) that job displacement of things like secretaries from AI do not require it to be a near perfect replacement. There are many other factors (for example if it's much cheaper and can do part of the work it can dramatically shrink demand as people can shift to an imperfect replacement in AI)
speed_spread 8mo ago
People have been in love with machines for a long time. It's just that the machines didn't talk back so we didn't grant them the "partner" status. Wait for car+LLM and you'll have a killer combo.
- fragmede 8mo ago
  KITT, is that you?

YawningAngel 8mo ago

I don't think generative AI is even close to making model development 50% faster

JackYoustra 8mo ago

> researchers that's certainly one way to refer to Scott Alexander

apetresc 8mo ago
Scott Alexander essentially provided editing and promotion for AI 2027 (and did a great job of it, I might add). Are you unaware of the actual researchers behind the forecasting/modelling work behind it, and you thought it was actually all done by a blogger? Or are you just being dismissive for fun?
- JackYoustra 8mo ago
  tbh mostly dismissive of Scott Alexander for fun, couldn't quite help myself

beernet 8mo ago

Only on HN will people still doubt what is happening right in front of their eyes. I understand that putting things into perspective is important, still, the type of downplaying we can see in the comments here is not only funny but also has a dangerous dimension to it. Ironically, these are the exact same people who will claim "we should have prepared better!" once the effects become more and more visible. Dear super engineers, while I feel sorry that your job and passion become a commodity right in front of you, please stay out the way.

0x1ceb00da 8mo ago

Is gpt5.3 200x bigger than gpt4? Looks like openai used this fanfiction as its marketing strategy