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It seems that current advantages would compound with AI. I.e., if I am making a SaaS for Popsicle stick makers today, why I am disadvantaged with AI vs a new co
by osigurdson 8mo ago
It seems that current advantages would compound with AI. I.e., if I am making a SaaS for Popsicle stick makers today, why I am disadvantaged with AI vs a new competitor in the space? I guess the hypothesis is the Popsicle stick maker will vibe code all of the software that they need instead. For that, we need significantly better AI than we have today - perhaps something like a 1000X improvement. Basically, this is a world in which non-technical grandparents can vibe code anything that they want. This means, it understands what you want without you being able to articulate it well in the first place.
- unsupp0rted 8mo agoThat's not a 1000X improvement in current AI. That's more like a 2x ~ 5x improvement in current AI, which is measured in months.
- osigurdson 8mo agoSo, within months your prompt can simply be "increase NPV" and machines will do the rest? If not, what prompt will work perfectly in your estimation by the end of the year?
- unsupp0rted 8mo ago“Analyze these business requirements and create a software solution for the problems you identified”. Right now it can get part way there but quickly falls flat. In 12-24 months? It’ll be able to audit itself and determine how to fix issues as they come up, mid-stream. That’s (all of) what a human dev does.
- osigurdson 8mo agoHow detailed are the business requirements however? "Increase NPV" is certainly a business requirement, albeit a very abstract one. "Add a checkbox to this form" is another, far more concrete business requirement.
- unsupp0rted 8mo agoGood AI asks clarification questions. Codex plan mode is already getting there-ish.
- osigurdson 8mo agoI suppose it is really only possible to know how close something is until it arrives. When I type in "Maximize NPV" into Codex / Claude Code, I feel like it is incredibly far away from full autonomous capability. I guess we will see.
- unsupp0rted 8mo agoWhat do you get when you type in “Maximize NPV” to a human?
- osigurdson 8mo ago"Maximize NPV" is exactly what shareholders prompt boards of directors with. Not all humans can do it, but some can. Perhaps your argument is that AGI isn't required to solve software. This would imply that human level intelligence isn't actually required today to build software.