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Can this really be a kind of herding stampede behavior over Cowork? It’s been out several days now and just all the sudden today, all the traders suddenly got i

Can this really be a kind of herding stampede behavior over Cowork? It’s been out several days now and just all the sudden today, all the traders suddenly got it into their little herd animal heads that everyone should rush to the exists… after that equally sketchy silver and gold rug pull type action last week? Something seems quite off. Am I the only one?

retube 8mo ago
Markets are not as efficient as the textbooks would have you believe. Investors typically rely on a fairly small set of analysts for market news and views. It might take those guys a while to think about stuff, write a note etc. The deepseek crash last year lagged by several days as well.
- andai 8mo ago
  I'm out of the loop, but I thought there were sophisticated automated trading algorithms where people pay to install microwave antennas so they can have 1ms lower latency. And I thought those systems are hooked up to run sentiment analysis on the news. Maybe the news is late?
  - th0ma5 8mo ago
    That is generally only applicable to extremely momentary arbitrage opportunities. There's still a lot of automation though, but it's pretty boring. It's basically look at the news and make a recommendation to a fund manager or something, and various competing vendors of such, down to consumer products like that.
  - retube 8mo ago
    High frequency is the domain of market makers. They are not taking positions in anything (well, only momentarily), they are just matching buyers with sellers. Actual investors move the market, and can be split into "fast money" and "real money". Fast money is basically hedge funds, holding periods typically hours - months depending on the strategy. Real money is the traditional investor base: asset managers, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurers. These guys are much slower: e.g. the investment committee might meet once a quarter, and investment strategy (e.g "we're gonna get a bit longer UK real rates", or "dial US equity allocation down 5%") is often only updated annually.
arctic-true 8mo ago
It could also be that we have been in an economy-wide speculative bubble for a couple of years. Whispers of an AI bubble were a way to self-soothe and avoid the fact that we are in an everything bubble.
entech 8mo ago
I am with you. I think that it is more likely to be related to Japanese carry trade unwind starting to worry the banks, while continuing to drive the “AI disrupt everything” narrative via mainstream news. I might be not across the detail, but to me the legal plugin seems like it’s mostly adding some skills (prompts) that are fairly basic that any technically minded people could do, and is not enough of an improvement for completely non technical people to use.

retube 8mo ago

Markets are not as efficient as the textbooks would have you believe. Investors typically rely on a fairly small set of analysts for market news and views. It might take those guys a while to think about stuff, write a note etc. The deepseek crash last year lagged by several days as well.

andai 8mo ago
I'm out of the loop, but I thought there were sophisticated automated trading algorithms where people pay to install microwave antennas so they can have 1ms lower latency. And I thought those systems are hooked up to run sentiment analysis on the news. Maybe the news is late?
- th0ma5 8mo ago
  That is generally only applicable to extremely momentary arbitrage opportunities. There's still a lot of automation though, but it's pretty boring. It's basically look at the news and make a recommendation to a fund manager or something, and various competing vendors of such, down to consumer products like that.
- retube 8mo ago
  High frequency is the domain of market makers. They are not taking positions in anything (well, only momentarily), they are just matching buyers with sellers. Actual investors move the market, and can be split into "fast money" and "real money". Fast money is basically hedge funds, holding periods typically hours - months depending on the strategy. Real money is the traditional investor base: asset managers, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurers. These guys are much slower: e.g. the investment committee might meet once a quarter, and investment strategy (e.g "we're gonna get a bit longer UK real rates", or "dial US equity allocation down 5%") is often only updated annually.

arctic-true 8mo ago

It could also be that we have been in an economy-wide speculative bubble for a couple of years. Whispers of an AI bubble were a way to self-soothe and avoid the fact that we are in an everything bubble.

entech 8mo ago

I am with you. I think that it is more likely to be related to Japanese carry trade unwind starting to worry the banks, while continuing to drive the “AI disrupt everything” narrative via mainstream news. I might be not across the detail, but to me the legal plugin seems like it’s mostly adding some skills (prompts) that are fairly basic that any technically minded people could do, and is not enough of an improvement for completely non technical people to use.