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Definitely one for the "actual data" crowd and inline with ground truthing in multiple countries. Full Title: Comparing crime rates between undocumented immigr

by defrost 9mo ago

Definitely one for the "actual data" crowd and inline with ground truthing in multiple countries. Full Title: Comparing crime rates between undocumented immigrants, legal immigrants, and native-born US citizens in Texas Despite its centrality to public and political discourse, we lack even basic information on fundamental questions regarding undocumented immigrants and crime. This stems largely from data constraints. Going beyond existing research, we utilize data from the Texas Department of Public Safety, which checks and records the immigration status of all arrestees throughout the state. Contrary to public perception, we observe considerably lower felony arrest rates among undocumented immigrants compared to legal immigrants and native-born US citizens and find no evidence that undocumented criminality has increased in recent years. Our findings help us understand why the most aggressive immigrant removal programs have not delivered on their crime reduction promises and are unlikely to do so in the future. This is foundational work for effective public policy aimed at crime reduction, increasing tax revenue, cost effective policing etc. Not great for those that revel in the excitement of Enforcement Theatre.

pjc50 9mo ago
> Not great for those that revel in the excitement of Enforcement Theatre The problem is that facts are useless against bigotry.
tjpnz 9mo ago
When you're ineligible for most kinds of welfare and have the constant threat of arrest and deportation hanging over your head I don't imagine you'll have much time for it.
stateofinquiry 9mo ago
Respectfully: I think the study is largely irrelevant to those who you seem to dismiss as one who "revel in Enforcement Theatre". I do agree the study provides valuable information I think it missed the point made by many advocates of immediate removal of those in the US illegally: No matter how low the rate of criminality by those in the country without permission, the number of events caused by that population should be pushed to 0 by removing them or not having them enter the country in the first place. Specifically: According to Wikipedia there were about 1.7 M undocumented people in Texas as of 2023. The study estimates 96.2 violent crimes per year per 100K for that same population. So that is about 1,635 violent crimes per year that should not happen. Across all the categories they present, its 308.8 crimes per 100K per year- so for the undocumented population that means about 5,250 crimes per year that in theory should not happen (if there were 0 undocumented people in Texas). The fact that the rate is lower for native-born or legal immigrants is immaterial to the argument advanced by those seeking more enforcement of immigration laws. Now, there are many, many aspects of the current administration's approach that can be debated and will probably not stand up well to scrutiny, but its important to understand the arguments being made if we are honestly interested in engaging in discussion and improvement. Another interesting thing: From the study results I think that if you did drop the number of undocumented people in Texas to 0, the crime rates would actually increase, even as the absolute number of crimes dropped. And the number would only drop if those removed were not replaced with (for example) legal immigrants.
- watwut 9mo ago
  > its important to understand the arguments being made if we are honestly interested in engaging in discussion and improvement. Yes. But making their arguments into different, milder, sanitized and whitewashed ones is NOT understanding them. It is carrying water for them. As of now, both their rhetorics and actions match perfectly. There is zero reason to think this is about crime levels. > The fact that the rate is lower for native-born or legal immigrants is immaterial to the argument advanced by those seeking more enforcement of immigration laws When the deportations are done in an orderly manner and without visible abuses, these people are unhappy. When they are done with visible abuses, then they feel like they are getting what they wanted. They do not particularly like the focus on lawbreakers either, their own rhetoric casts violent law breaking as something good - if done by the right side. In fact, when only illegal immigrants are deported, they act like something was missing. If we are honest to ourselves about what they want and openly talk about, they want white ethnostate. They have issue with legal migrants and with non white citizens too. They have issue with EU having non whites in it. Somehow, their primary targets are cities with relatively low illegal immigration rather then ... Texas with much higher illegal immigration.
  - constantius 9mo ago
    Immigration is not a left-right issue, there are reasons to want to limit wanted and unwanted immigration, regardless of who one might vote for. > If we are honest to ourselves about what they want and openly talk about [...] without visible abuses, these people are unhappy. You seem to be talking about a subset of all people who do not want immigration: caricaturally-extreme racists. You and GP are not talking about the same people, and GP is not carrying water for anyone.

by defrost 9mo ago

pjc50 9mo ago

> Not great for those that revel in the excitement of Enforcement Theatre The problem is that facts are useless against bigotry.

tjpnz 9mo ago

When you're ineligible for most kinds of welfare and have the constant threat of arrest and deportation hanging over your head I don't imagine you'll have much time for it.

stateofinquiry 9mo ago

Respectfully: I think the study is largely irrelevant to those who you seem to dismiss as one who "revel in Enforcement Theatre". I do agree the study provides valuable information I think it missed the point made by many advocates of immediate removal of those in the US illegally: No matter how low the rate of criminality by those in the country without permission, the number of events caused by that population should be pushed to 0 by removing them or not having them enter the country in the first place. Specifically: According to Wikipedia there were about 1.7 M undocumented people in Texas as of 2023. The study estimates 96.2 violent crimes per year per 100K for that same population. So that is about 1,635 violent crimes per year that should not happen. Across all the categories they present, its 308.8 crimes per 100K per year- so for the undocumented population that means about 5,250 crimes per year that in theory should not happen (if there were 0 undocumented people in Texas). The fact that the rate is lower for native-born or legal immigrants is immaterial to the argument advanced by those seeking more enforcement of immigration laws. Now, there are many, many aspects of the current administration's approach that can be debated and will probably not stand up well to scrutiny, but its important to understand the arguments being made if we are honestly interested in engaging in discussion and improvement. Another interesting thing: From the study results I think that if you did drop the number of undocumented people in Texas to 0, the crime rates would actually increase, even as the absolute number of crimes dropped. And the number would only drop if those removed were not replaced with (for example) legal immigrants.

watwut 9mo ago
> its important to understand the arguments being made if we are honestly interested in engaging in discussion and improvement. Yes. But making their arguments into different, milder, sanitized and whitewashed ones is NOT understanding them. It is carrying water for them. As of now, both their rhetorics and actions match perfectly. There is zero reason to think this is about crime levels. > The fact that the rate is lower for native-born or legal immigrants is immaterial to the argument advanced by those seeking more enforcement of immigration laws When the deportations are done in an orderly manner and without visible abuses, these people are unhappy. When they are done with visible abuses, then they feel like they are getting what they wanted. They do not particularly like the focus on lawbreakers either, their own rhetoric casts violent law breaking as something good - if done by the right side. In fact, when only illegal immigrants are deported, they act like something was missing. If we are honest to ourselves about what they want and openly talk about, they want white ethnostate. They have issue with legal migrants and with non white citizens too. They have issue with EU having non whites in it. Somehow, their primary targets are cities with relatively low illegal immigration rather then ... Texas with much higher illegal immigration.
- constantius 9mo ago
  Immigration is not a left-right issue, there are reasons to want to limit wanted and unwanted immigration, regardless of who one might vote for. > If we are honest to ourselves about what they want and openly talk about [...] without visible abuses, these people are unhappy. You seem to be talking about a subset of all people who do not want immigration: caricaturally-extreme racists. You and GP are not talking about the same people, and GP is not carrying water for anyone.