5 ms·

You don't have to win them all.

by dubeye 8mo ago

kimixa 8mo ago
He does (or at least a good proportion) if you want to use as precedent for delivering on these promises, though. Especially for the larger more extreme statements and not just buying himself into an existing business.
- dubeye 8mo ago
  Why does he? that's an arbitrary standard set by you. His investors are quite happy with his success rate. He is constantly building new stuff. And as a consumer who has had great experience with every product I've bought, so am I
  - Slartie 8mo ago
    No one buys into Elon's firms because he's expecting dividends. His investors are not investing because of his success rate in delivering on his promises. His investors are investing exclusively because they believe that stock they buy now will be worth more tomorrow. They all know that's most likely not because Elon delivers anything concrete (because he only does that in what, 20% of cases?), but because Elon rides the hype train harder tomorrow. But they don't care if it's hype or substance, as long as numbers go up. Elon's investors are happy with his success rate only in terms of continuously generating hype. Which, I have to admit, he's been able to keep up longer now than I ever thought possible.
    - dubeye 8mo ago
      Perhaps my marketing background is clouding my view, but have exceptional hyping skills seems quite useful when attracting investment. And fact is Musk is building a lot of stuff of real substance. The hype to substance ratio isn't quite as important as some choose to beleive
      - greggoB 8mo ago
        > but have exceptional hyping skills seems quite useful when attracting investment. Elizabeth Holmes (Theranos) and a lot of ex-crypto-bros (fraudsters) would agree. "Exceptional hyping skills" is (today) possibly a more derogatory term than you're expecting. > And fact is Musk is building a lot of stuff of real substance. I think the point others are making is this is a more accurate description of Musk ~10 years ago. In the past 5 years its been what, the cybertruck?
        dubeye 8mo ago
        It's a derogatory comment among certain types of technical employee, I would agree. Not so much amongst those in leadership or softer roles. I wouldn't put cybertruck in the win column personally
        AlexandrB 8mo ago
        I think this is why he gets away with it. A "win" is a product delivered years late for 3x the promised MSRP with 1/10th the expected sales. With wins like these, what would count as a loss?
        dubeye 8mo ago
        He gets away with it for one reason only, and because he consistently delivers good returns on capital. Most of Tesla's revenue derives from Model Y and FSD subs. I agree that Cybertruck was a marketing ploy. Don't think it was ever intended to be materially revenue generating.
        greggoB 8mo ago
        > He gets away with it for one reason only, and because he consistently delivers good returns on capital. Didn't Tesla just have a terrible 2025, with European sales plunging due to the stigma of owning a swasticar?
    - the_sleaze_ 8mo ago
      Cynics are often right Optimists are often rich
      - kimixa 8mo ago
        I feel that Cynics are often average. Optimists are either rich, or destitute. And though you probably hear more about the richer parts, that doesn't mean they're more common.

You don't have to win them all.

by dubeye 8mo ago

You don't have to win them all.

He does (or at least a good proportion) if you want to use as precedent for delivering on these promises, though. Especially for the larger more extreme statements and not just buying himself into an existing business.

dubeye 8mo ago
Why does he? that's an arbitrary standard set by you. His investors are quite happy with his success rate. He is constantly building new stuff. And as a consumer who has had great experience with every product I've bought, so am I
- Slartie 8mo ago
  No one buys into Elon's firms because he's expecting dividends. His investors are not investing because of his success rate in delivering on his promises. His investors are investing exclusively because they believe that stock they buy now will be worth more tomorrow. They all know that's most likely not because Elon delivers anything concrete (because he only does that in what, 20% of cases?), but because Elon rides the hype train harder tomorrow. But they don't care if it's hype or substance, as long as numbers go up. Elon's investors are happy with his success rate only in terms of continuously generating hype. Which, I have to admit, he's been able to keep up longer now than I ever thought possible.
  - dubeye 8mo ago
    Perhaps my marketing background is clouding my view, but have exceptional hyping skills seems quite useful when attracting investment. And fact is Musk is building a lot of stuff of real substance. The hype to substance ratio isn't quite as important as some choose to beleive
    - greggoB 8mo ago
      > but have exceptional hyping skills seems quite useful when attracting investment. Elizabeth Holmes (Theranos) and a lot of ex-crypto-bros (fraudsters) would agree. "Exceptional hyping skills" is (today) possibly a more derogatory term than you're expecting. > And fact is Musk is building a lot of stuff of real substance. I think the point others are making is this is a more accurate description of Musk ~10 years ago. In the past 5 years its been what, the cybertruck?
      - dubeye 8mo ago
        It's a derogatory comment among certain types of technical employee, I would agree. Not so much amongst those in leadership or softer roles. I wouldn't put cybertruck in the win column personally
        AlexandrB 8mo ago
        I think this is why he gets away with it. A "win" is a product delivered years late for 3x the promised MSRP with 1/10th the expected sales. With wins like these, what would count as a loss?
        dubeye 8mo ago
        He gets away with it for one reason only, and because he consistently delivers good returns on capital. Most of Tesla's revenue derives from Model Y and FSD subs. I agree that Cybertruck was a marketing ploy. Don't think it was ever intended to be materially revenue generating.
        greggoB 8mo ago
        > He gets away with it for one reason only, and because he consistently delivers good returns on capital. Didn't Tesla just have a terrible 2025, with European sales plunging due to the stigma of owning a swasticar?
  - the_sleaze_ 8mo ago
    Cynics are often right Optimists are often rich
    - kimixa 8mo ago
      I feel that Cynics are often average. Optimists are either rich, or destitute. And though you probably hear more about the richer parts, that doesn't mean they're more common.