4 ms·

both can be true, he can excel at 'narrative' and also deliver me my Tesla and my starlink, it's not either or

by dubeye 8mo ago

rob74 8mo ago
Ok, he delivered your Tesla and your Starlink, but so far he has hasn't delivered your Robotaxi, your Optimus, your lunar lander, your space datacenter etc. And the list keeps getting longer instead of shorter...
- dubeye 8mo ago
  You don't have to win them all.
  - kimixa 8mo ago
    He does (or at least a good proportion) if you want to use as precedent for delivering on these promises, though. Especially for the larger more extreme statements and not just buying himself into an existing business.
    - dubeye 8mo ago
      Why does he? that's an arbitrary standard set by you. His investors are quite happy with his success rate. He is constantly building new stuff. And as a consumer who has had great experience with every product I've bought, so am I
      - Slartie 8mo ago
        No one buys into Elon's firms because he's expecting dividends. His investors are not investing because of his success rate in delivering on his promises. His investors are investing exclusively because they believe that stock they buy now will be worth more tomorrow. They all know that's most likely not because Elon delivers anything concrete (because he only does that in what, 20% of cases?), but because Elon rides the hype train harder tomorrow. But they don't care if it's hype or substance, as long as numbers go up. Elon's investors are happy with his success rate only in terms of continuously generating hype. Which, I have to admit, he's been able to keep up longer now than I ever thought possible.
        dubeye 8mo ago
        Perhaps my marketing background is clouding my view, but have exceptional hyping skills seems quite useful when attracting investment. And fact is Musk is building a lot of stuff of real substance. The hype to substance ratio isn't quite as important as some choose to beleive
        greggoB 8mo ago
        > but have exceptional hyping skills seems quite useful when attracting investment. Elizabeth Holmes (Theranos) and a lot of ex-crypto-bros (fraudsters) would agree. "Exceptional hyping skills" is (today) possibly a more derogatory term than you're expecting. > And fact is Musk is building a lot of stuff of real substance. I think the point others are making is this is a more accurate description of Musk ~10 years ago. In the past 5 years its been what, the cybertruck?
        dubeye 8mo ago
        It's a derogatory comment among certain types of technical employee, I would agree. Not so much amongst those in leadership or softer roles. I wouldn't put cybertruck in the win column personally
        AlexandrB 8mo ago
        I think this is why he gets away with it. A "win" is a product delivered years late for 3x the promised MSRP with 1/10th the expected sales. With wins like these, what would count as a loss?
        dubeye 8mo ago
        He gets away with it for one reason only, and because he consistently delivers good returns on capital. Most of Tesla's revenue derives from Model Y and FSD subs. I agree that Cybertruck was a marketing ploy. Don't think it was ever intended to be materially revenue generating.
- burnerRhodov2 8mo ago
  >Robotaxi, your Optimus, your lunar lander, your space datacenter etc. And the list keeps getting longer instead of shorter... Lets go through this one by one [1]Robotaxi. Someone just drove coast to coast USA fully on autopilot. I drive my tesla every day, and i literally NEVER disengage autopilot. It gets me to work and back home without fail, to the grocery store, to literally anywhere i need. Whats not full self driving about that? I got in two crashes before i got my Tesla cause i was a dumb teen, but i'm sure my Tesla is a much better driver than my younger sister. Politically it's not FSD, but in reality, it has been for a while. [2] Optimus has gone through three revisions and has hand technology that is 5+ years ahead of the competition. Even if they launched it as a consumer product now, i'm sure a million people would buy it just as a cool toy/ gadget. AKA a successfull product. [3] Lunar Lander Starship, a fully reusable, 2 stage rocket that has gone through 25 revisions and is 95% flight proven and has even deployed dummy starlinks. 10+ years ahead of everyone except maybe stoke. [4]Space Datacenter Have you ever used starlink? They have all the pieces they need... Elon build a giant datacenter in 6 monmths when it takes 3-4 years usually. He has more compute than anybody and Grok is the most intelligent AI by all the metrics outside googles. Combine that with Starship, which can launch 10X the capacity for 10% of the cost, and what reason do you have to doubt him here? Granted... it always takes him longer than he says, but he always eventually comes through.
  - msie 8mo ago
    Your note on Optimus does a lot of heavy lifting. He hasn’t sold one yet.
  - youarentrightjr 8mo ago
    > [1]Robotaxi. Someone just drove coast to coast USA fully on autopilot. Where's the source for this?
    - indoordin0saur 8mo ago
      https://www.thedrive.com/news/a-tesla-actually-drove-itself-from-los-angeles-to-new-york-exclusive https://www.thedrive.com/news/a-tesla-actually-drove-itself-...

both can be true, he can excel at 'narrative' and also deliver me my Tesla and my starlink, it's not either or

by dubeye 8mo ago

both can be true, he can excel at 'narrative' and also deliver me my Tesla and my starlink, it's not either or

rob74 8mo ago

Ok, he delivered your Tesla and your Starlink, but so far he has hasn't delivered your Robotaxi, your Optimus, your lunar lander, your space datacenter etc. And the list keeps getting longer instead of shorter...

dubeye 8mo ago
You don't have to win them all.
- kimixa 8mo ago
  He does (or at least a good proportion) if you want to use as precedent for delivering on these promises, though. Especially for the larger more extreme statements and not just buying himself into an existing business.
  - dubeye 8mo ago
    Why does he? that's an arbitrary standard set by you. His investors are quite happy with his success rate. He is constantly building new stuff. And as a consumer who has had great experience with every product I've bought, so am I
    - Slartie 8mo ago
      No one buys into Elon's firms because he's expecting dividends. His investors are not investing because of his success rate in delivering on his promises. His investors are investing exclusively because they believe that stock they buy now will be worth more tomorrow. They all know that's most likely not because Elon delivers anything concrete (because he only does that in what, 20% of cases?), but because Elon rides the hype train harder tomorrow. But they don't care if it's hype or substance, as long as numbers go up. Elon's investors are happy with his success rate only in terms of continuously generating hype. Which, I have to admit, he's been able to keep up longer now than I ever thought possible.
      - dubeye 8mo ago
        Perhaps my marketing background is clouding my view, but have exceptional hyping skills seems quite useful when attracting investment. And fact is Musk is building a lot of stuff of real substance. The hype to substance ratio isn't quite as important as some choose to beleive
        greggoB 8mo ago
        > but have exceptional hyping skills seems quite useful when attracting investment. Elizabeth Holmes (Theranos) and a lot of ex-crypto-bros (fraudsters) would agree. "Exceptional hyping skills" is (today) possibly a more derogatory term than you're expecting. > And fact is Musk is building a lot of stuff of real substance. I think the point others are making is this is a more accurate description of Musk ~10 years ago. In the past 5 years its been what, the cybertruck?
        dubeye 8mo ago
        It's a derogatory comment among certain types of technical employee, I would agree. Not so much amongst those in leadership or softer roles. I wouldn't put cybertruck in the win column personally
        AlexandrB 8mo ago
        I think this is why he gets away with it. A "win" is a product delivered years late for 3x the promised MSRP with 1/10th the expected sales. With wins like these, what would count as a loss?
        dubeye 8mo ago
        He gets away with it for one reason only, and because he consistently delivers good returns on capital. Most of Tesla's revenue derives from Model Y and FSD subs. I agree that Cybertruck was a marketing ploy. Don't think it was ever intended to be materially revenue generating.
burnerRhodov2 8mo ago
>Robotaxi, your Optimus, your lunar lander, your space datacenter etc. And the list keeps getting longer instead of shorter... Lets go through this one by one [1]Robotaxi. Someone just drove coast to coast USA fully on autopilot. I drive my tesla every day, and i literally NEVER disengage autopilot. It gets me to work and back home without fail, to the grocery store, to literally anywhere i need. Whats not full self driving about that? I got in two crashes before i got my Tesla cause i was a dumb teen, but i'm sure my Tesla is a much better driver than my younger sister. Politically it's not FSD, but in reality, it has been for a while. [2] Optimus has gone through three revisions and has hand technology that is 5+ years ahead of the competition. Even if they launched it as a consumer product now, i'm sure a million people would buy it just as a cool toy/ gadget. AKA a successfull product. [3] Lunar Lander Starship, a fully reusable, 2 stage rocket that has gone through 25 revisions and is 95% flight proven and has even deployed dummy starlinks. 10+ years ahead of everyone except maybe stoke. [4]Space Datacenter Have you ever used starlink? They have all the pieces they need... Elon build a giant datacenter in 6 monmths when it takes 3-4 years usually. He has more compute than anybody and Grok is the most intelligent AI by all the metrics outside googles. Combine that with Starship, which can launch 10X the capacity for 10% of the cost, and what reason do you have to doubt him here? Granted... it always takes him longer than he says, but he always eventually comes through.
- msie 8mo ago
  Your note on Optimus does a lot of heavy lifting. He hasn’t sold one yet.
- youarentrightjr 8mo ago
  > [1]Robotaxi. Someone just drove coast to coast USA fully on autopilot. Where's the source for this?
  - indoordin0saur 8mo ago
    https://www.thedrive.com/news/a-tesla-actually-drove-itself-from-los-angeles-to-new-york-exclusive https://www.thedrive.com/news/a-tesla-actually-drove-itself-...