4 ms·
> We currently make around 1 TW of photovoltaic cells per year, globally. Doubling every three years; at that rate it would take about 30 years for 1TW to beco
by mr_toad 9mo ago
> We currently make around 1 TW of photovoltaic cells per year, globally.
Doubling every three years; at that rate it would take about 30 years for 1TW to become 1000TW. Whether on not the trend continues largely depends on demand, but as of right now humanity seems to have an insatiable demand for power.
- sarchertech 9mo agoI think it largely depends on what bottlenecks exist that we haven’t hit yet.
- Analemma_ 9mo agoWe’re not going to use 100% of our solar panel manufacturing capacity to power space data centers, specifically because everyone else on the ground is so power-hungry. If we’re being generous, it could maybe top out at 1%, which adds another ~20 years to your timeline for a total of 50. I think it’s safe to say this part is bunk (along with everything else about this plan which is also bunk).
- mlindner 9mo agoWe seem to be using 100% of our DRAM manufacturing for AI. So it's not completely out of the question.
- usrusr 9mo agoSpace to put them, terrestrially, is not infinite. Demand has a hard ceiling.
- DoctorOetker 9mo agounless demand comes from space
- FeepingCreature 9mo agoThat's a supply ceiling. Funnily, it's also one that's solved by putting them in space.
- Cthulhu_ 9mo agoPlenty of space still, but we're running into other scaling issues now - power grids are at their limits. And on sunny days there's a lot more supply than demand, but that can be mitigated by adding more (battery) storage.