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Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- greenblat 9mo agoPerfect time to buy
- cung 9mo agoNot sure if that is the case. An insane amount of bitcoin has been dumped into the market by whales.
- direwolf20 9mo agothat's the perfect time to buy
- CamperBob2 9mo agoBecause the whales are dumbasses?
- kkfx 9mo agoLet's say if I had old-school BTC, mined personally or bought back in the day for very little fiat currency and today it's an enormously larger sum, I'd say it's time to not keep all my eggs in one basket and rebalance my portfolio. For example, I'd say it's actually been time for a while now, ever since the crypto-tax wave start to hit, to convert into fiat currency and buy land, houses, assets that, IF the state doesn't collapse and they're chosen in reasonable areas, could still preserve significant value, allow you to flee to another country (houses purchased abroad) if necessary etc. If someone had put 0.001% of their capital or even 0.01% into old-school BTC and today finds themselves with 50% of their capital in BTC, it's high time to give some thought to diversification. Smart contracts will become the contracts of the future and NFTs will be digital identity is pretty obvious; we don't know WHO will be used by whom for these tasks, but it's clear that this is what they'll be because they're the most functional choice we have in the trend toward rules as code. The problem is that the market can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent, so it's a gamble, but also a logical diversification in its own right as well. The only highly uncertain element is the miners' ability to withstand long periods of loss.
- amjnsx 9mo agoYou’re right. Let’s wait for it to pump 20% before we buy. Lol what?
- fallingfrog 9mo agoAs far as I can tell, bitcoin, having no intrinsic value, is priced entirely by vibes. Right now the vibes are generally negative. The latest bubble of interest has faded. I would wait, the world could become interested again but it may be 2 or 3 years. The bottom will probably be around 70k.
- rvnx 9mo agoWhat if all these AI companies, are going to mint coins with their idle GPUs, wouldn't that lower value of these coins massively ? It's not as good as an ASIC, but we talk about millions of GPUs
- BJones12 9mo agoBitcoin mining on GPUs is generally unprofitable due to the price of electricity.
- direwolf20 9mo agoThe rate of coin mining is the same, no matter how many miners there are
- Esophagus4 9mo agoThe trouble with vibe-based pricing is it’s really hard to time the vibes. And hard to time the vibe dip.
- fallingfrog 9mo agoYes this is absolutely true. Difficult to impossible, I would say.. my prediction of "2 to 3 years" could very well be totally wrong. The dominant narrative around bitcoin right now is "hodl because in the long term it always goes up." Thats the core premise that the bitcoin price is based on. If that premise were to crack, bitcoin could drop to near zero for all we know.
- Esophagus4 9mo ago
- napierzaza 9mo ago[dead]
- zhug3 9mo ago[dead]
- mytailorisrich 9mo agoPeople dump BTC in order to buy gold.
- rvnx 9mo agoPeople dump gold to buy Sandisk
- seydor 9mo agoThey aren't buying actual gold though
- ProllyInfamous 9mo agoPeople are dumping all sorts of things into gold. I just did so with a few pounds of silver (when @ 49.5:1; now 56:1).
- woeirua 9mo agoMy working hypothesis is that people are dumping Bitcoin for AI adjacent stocks because the hype around agents is growing. There’s no way to prove this, but I’m seeing unexpected behaviors on the secondary markets for privately held AI companies.
- jfengel 9mo agoAt least AI produces something. Maybe not what everyone hopes for, but there is some output that people are worth paying for. Cryptocurrency lived entirely in the hopes that people wanted to replace regular money, and it turns out not to be a big use case outside of criminals and refugees. The AI bubble will one day collapse too. But the Bitcoin bubble could just plain vanish.
- anupamchugh 9mo agoNot a big use case outside of criminals and refugees" - the refugee use case alone matters to hundreds of millions living under capital controls or currency collapse. Argentinians escaping peso devaluation aren't criminals. Ukrainians moving value during invasion aren't edge cases. Whether Bitcoin is good at this is debatable. Whether it's a real use case isn't.
- zerosizedweasle 9mo agoTrump associated currencies crashing.
- Tade0 9mo agoSomewhere in Paris, a phone laying on a glass table started vibrating and was picked up by a mysterious person who answered, with a thick French accent: "Yes?". In all seriousness to me this is still within the bounds of "a Tuesday" in the BTC space. Stranger things have happened many times already.
- BJones12 9mo agoAnd it will continue. Bitcoin treasury companies [0] have equity values lower then their Bitcoin holdings, so it is the financially correct move to sell BTC at market price and use the proceeds to buy back their stock at the market price. This will lead to additional downward pressure on BTC. [0] https://bitbo.io/treasuries/ https://bitbo.io/treasuries/
- tartoran 9mo agoHow long does it have to drop for it to never recover?
- ecommerceguy 9mo agoI think I read 11,000 is when Saylor is completely broken, again.
- nradov 9mo agoI'm not a fan of Bitcoin but from a purely financial perspective it's natural for treasury companies to trade at a discount to the underlying assets. Obviously the executives are going to find some way to steal most of the value and leave the minority shareholders (suckers) holding the bag.
- BJones12 9mo agohttps://archive.is/co3Wm https://archive.is/co3Wm
- GCA10 9mo agoVibes guy here. I dabbled in Bitcoin for about a year, on the notion that if the world's overall financial system got degraded, more people would view Bitcoin holdings as a safe way to preserve value. Maybe better than owning physical gold. Why not get in early before the next stampede? But I was wrong about bitcoin > gold. It's worked the other way around. There's also persistent chatter that the supposedly uncrackable Bitcoin private keys might someday be crackable with quantum computing. Preposterous? Maybe. Maybe not. There's a mind-blowing amount of compute coming into the world, and not all of it's going to be used to create goofy memes or robo-PowerPoints. Call me timid, but I cashed out with modest Bitcoin profits last year and am fine watching the show from the sidelines from here on.
- rozal 9mo ago[dead]
- creetioc 9mo agoYou can easily trade gold today. You can easily trade gold if ww3 starts to the goons pressganging people into dying in the trenches so they take your bitcoin hoarding neighbor instead. You can easily trade gold after a nuclear apocalypse to your local warlord so you get access to non-irradiated food. Gold is a pretty, shiny rock and rich people like pretty, shiny things so they can display their superiority to no-gold-having proles. Just about everybody on the planet knows gold is highly valuable. It is fundamentally a superior store of value than bitcoin if you’re talking about notable global disruptions, even without going into the actual tech.
- embedding-shape 9mo agoYeah, that angle never worked out for me. If we imagine instead the world became hyper-capitalistic (even more than today), then I could see that digital and untracable (not Bitcoin) decentralized money might have a big influence, but in the opposite scenarios, I don't think there is a lot of need for cryptocurrencies.
- SoftTalker 9mo agoWhere is your gold? Buried in your garden? Or is it an accounting entry at some commodities trading firm?
- punkbit 9mo agoPaywall
- epolanski 9mo agoDoesn't matter, there's no shortage of clowns interested in buying because the price will go up. Nowadays even includes banks and custody companies. Doesn't matter how much it falls.
- jcfrei 9mo agoBTC failed to live up to it's own prophecy by not doubling from the last height of ca. 69420 to at least 140k in 2025. There was a last chance in October of last year, where it seemed to get close but ultimately it just didn't find enough buyers. Now with the narrative broken (bitcoin always goes up over the long term) one sell off will lead to the next as more and more people lose trust.
- rozal 9mo ago[dead]
- libertine 9mo agoI still find it interesting that the pump and dump still works - it's the same cycle over and over again of building the market to dump crap onto people. I bet some folks have so much crap they've been dumping it gradually just so the market can absorb it. Was this the final dump? I doubt it.
- pipes 9mo agoPossibly, but you don't know that and you are stating it as fact.
- amjnsx 9mo agoThat isn’t something you can categorically say for sure though. If it hits 125k next month then Bitcoin does go up over the long term. Same if it hits 125k next year.
- MuffinFlavored 9mo agoand it has proven to not be a great hedge against inflation (lately, short term) the digital gold narrative falls apart when non-digital gold outperforms it and nobody wants it for its digital properties (payments, blockchain, etc.)
- samrus 9mo agoWrong. The problem with bitcoin is its volatility itself. If it doubled in value, that means its undergoing hyper deflation, which makes it a terrible store of value. Bitcoin's proponents are its own biggest liability. People who see it as a speculative asset rather than a currency that needs to be a stable store of value. It, like all currency, has no ingerent value and its stupid to speculate on it
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- lm28469 9mo agoThis is good for bitcoin /s When silver is behaving like a shitcoin you know we're in for a fun ride. I think the fact that anyone with a phone can now download countless apps that allows them to """invest""" with leverage &co was a mistake. My bank app now advertises memecoins as a way to build "wealth"...
- paxys 9mo agoWhether the price goes up or down from here, one notion has been sufficiently shattered over the last couple of years - that Bitcoin is a stable ~source~ store of value that acts has a hedge against inflation and currency control by governments. While assets like gold and silver have surged in the same time period due to political and economic uncertainty, as one may expect, Bitcoin has gone in the opposite direction and has been driven more by hype cycles and a small number of whales rather than any fundamentals.
- dinkblam 9mo ago> that Bitcoin is a stable source of value no sane person could have ever held that notion - there is no underlying value.
- pllbnk 9mo agoHindsight is 20/20. That bitcoin is a store of value has been talked about for a very long time when other blockchains overtook it in terms of functionality. People’s memories are short so I am sure it will be touted as such again in a couple years.
- dpc050505 9mo agoThe computing cost to mine more bitcoin is hailed as the underlying value by proponents of that notion. It depends on bitcoin holders refusing to sell at a price lower than the cost of mining, which isn't a given. It's also a notion that doesn't account for potential innovations such as quantum computing, which would significantly reduce crypto mining costs.
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- kkfx 9mo agoA currency has no intrinsic value except a minimal one; for BTC, we can say it was 10k BTC for two pizzas. The subsequent value didn't come from speculation but from an underlying economy. In BTC case, it was the D-Company that sold drugs for BTC and with BTC bought weapons, explosives etc for Al-Qaeda, and those who sold them accepted BTC because they could sell it for local fiat currencies to various D-Company customers. From there, it was an uphill race. The decline came when it moved from the criminal economy, which was well-supplied and very interested in exchanging BTC, to Wall Street, interested in speculating and with capital far greater than states evading sanctions and criminal groups. However, the decline is always relative, because in its brief existence to date, BTC is still the asset that has gained the most value over time compared to any other. Despite many technical problems https://blog.dshr.org/2025/09/the-gaslit-asset-class.html https://blog.dshr.org/2025/09/the-gaslit-asset-class.html, it has spread. Running a node costs, let's say, a BitAxe/NerdMiner+Raspberry Pi+2TB of storage and an internet connection, meaning it's within reach of many. Once you have a node, you can set up a Lightning channel with your own node to have a "wallet" for everyday payments with low fees and sufficient TPS to pay for a coffee, if the seller accepts SAT. In other words, it truly is an asset against failed currencies, authoritarian governments, geopolitical quakes, and so on. It isn't much compared to gold only because most people don't own BTC, don't know how to use it, so in a major crisis, well, only a few would know what to do, and these few would still need other things for daily exchanges. However, these few could, for example, flee a country taking wealth with them. Something that in a major crisis isn't guaranteed to be possible otherwise. So, it isn't much of a currency at this moment. The currency uses that gave it the bulk of its super-value during this period are reduced, while speculative ones are high. It isn't very sustainable for the miners' economy without a rising price, and this creates a very dangerous downward spiral because, to date, states and giant actors accumulate BTC here and there but don't do much mining, and the interest in keeping the network up remains to be seen how it will hold over time. But it does have value in the current context. The problem is always that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. The market isn't made up entirely of homines economici, but only some, and many other purely emotional subjects whose reasoning seems more constructed after the fact to justify emotional choices. Personally, I suspend judgment. I've never really digested the definition of "store of value" nor that of digital gold, but I don't digest gold either because in itself it has minimal value; the super-value is pure psychology that can change at any time, ESPECIALLY in a major crisis where most are hungry and don't eat ingots. I just wonder in case of a major crisis what the few who have BTC can do with it, besides waiting for better times.
- theturtle 9mo ago[dead]
- fuckinpuppers 9mo agoI don’t view it as any way to “preserve value” To me it’s only true use is to anonymize payments (which requires some work to truly anonymize properly) - I see it as a system you dive in and out of. Not hold in. Simply because it’s not backed by anything it has no implied stability. At least the dollar (not backed properly anymore) has one of the largest world powers behind it keeping it floating along. There isn’t one of those for BTC… I think most crypto is really all about another market for pump and dumps, a Wild West without much regulation… Much like AI’s promise about letting humans enjoy a life with less labor, the idea sounds great but its reality is the majority of people just truthfully to make more money one way or another.
- kimos 9mo ago> it’s only true use is to anonymize payments The irony of this is that since every transaction and all its metadata is on chain, it has turned out to be easily traced back to the beginning of time. Fully open, the opposite of anonymized. (see: Chainalysis et. al.)
- Luke25 9mo ago[dead]
- Valeriie 9mo ago[dead]
- Valeriie 9mo ago[dead]
- sampage64 9mo ago[dead]