5 ms·

AI: the US is headed for mass unemployment

11 points by hackyhacky 8mo ago

bloppe 8mo ago
> For years, I opposed Universal Basic Income, firmly and reflexively. Bold to open your economic diatribe by discrediting your own economic reasoning.
anovikov 8mo ago
I don't buy into alarmism at all. First of all it's not just the US but the entire world. Trick is, as always, simply not to do worse than others. As for tens of millions being unemployable... so what? What are the practical problems it creates? Crime? Highly unlikely. These people are older and more individualistic and serious property crime is a collective affair. Crime is low these days in general so even a considerable increase in it won't be some sort of unmanageable disaster, America has been there before. I can't think of much else in terms of problems it could create. Consumption and thus "keeping economy going" is currently maintained by people who make income from capital and it will only become more so. Employment as a tool of distributing money for consumption will simply become less relevant. For next generation, it will be easier because surely personal service will get revived as a mass occupation - and there, having a person is the whole point so it's safe from automation by definition.
- bdangubic 8mo ago
  > Crime is low these days in general Crime is low where income is adequate, Crime is (very) high otherwise
  - anovikov 8mo ago
    Not true; take the GFC: tens of millions lost jobs with no prospect of employment, millions lost homes, and there wasn't any serious support program (say, similar to Covid era cash payments). And yet, there was no crime wave at all.
  - anovikov 8mo ago
    And indeed, another counterpoint is Covid itself. There were massive cash payments, inequality and poverty, especially among disadvantaged groups, fell to historic lows - and yet there WAS a massive crime wave.
- verdverm 8mo ago
  Have you learned about the Great Depression? You need not look further to find your first "practical problems"
  - anovikov 8mo ago
    Great Depression is thoroughly unrelated. It was because of excess agricultural production by overleveraged farmers that forced them into further undermining themselves by overproduction, and eventual contagion of bad debt of those farmers propagating across the economy - made worse by unhinged, and unregulated, leveraged stock trading. It did not happen because of sudden productivity increase that put too many people out of work. No economic crises ever happened that way, and there is no reason to believe any will. This is what every economy strives to achieve and it's kinda stupid to be afraid of it. Some people can be hit hard, and it always happens during every technological revolution, but with sufficient investment into predictive policing and law enforcement overall, this is a manageable risk. Surely, a stock market shock can happen other way around - if AI will turn out to be a flop - but i believe this is not the risk you are talking about.
    - verdverm 8mo ago
      You're looking at causes, that's the wrong side. Your prior claim was about how you couldn't see the downsides of high unemployment. Look at what happened during the Great Depression, when unemployment was high. It doesn't matter how we get to high unemployment or depression status, but for sure there will be a lot of bad things, many more than you proclaim. Look to the Great Depression to see what the human condition and spirit was like if you are having trouble imagining possibilities
      - anovikov 8mo ago
        During the Great Depression there was also an economic collapse with deep decreases in production and consumption of just about everything - except useless production of what was already overproduced anyway. That could naturally make people depressed, strive for radical changes like Communism, etc. But we are speaking simply of mass unemployment. That alone is not enough to cause widespread despair.

11 points by hackyhacky 8mo ago

> For years, I opposed Universal Basic Income, firmly and reflexively. Bold to open your economic diatribe by discrediting your own economic reasoning.

anovikov 8mo ago

I don't buy into alarmism at all. First of all it's not just the US but the entire world. Trick is, as always, simply not to do worse than others. As for tens of millions being unemployable... so what? What are the practical problems it creates? Crime? Highly unlikely. These people are older and more individualistic and serious property crime is a collective affair. Crime is low these days in general so even a considerable increase in it won't be some sort of unmanageable disaster, America has been there before. I can't think of much else in terms of problems it could create. Consumption and thus "keeping economy going" is currently maintained by people who make income from capital and it will only become more so. Employment as a tool of distributing money for consumption will simply become less relevant. For next generation, it will be easier because surely personal service will get revived as a mass occupation - and there, having a person is the whole point so it's safe from automation by definition.

bdangubic 8mo ago
> Crime is low these days in general Crime is low where income is adequate, Crime is (very) high otherwise
- anovikov 8mo ago
  Not true; take the GFC: tens of millions lost jobs with no prospect of employment, millions lost homes, and there wasn't any serious support program (say, similar to Covid era cash payments). And yet, there was no crime wave at all.
- anovikov 8mo ago
  And indeed, another counterpoint is Covid itself. There were massive cash payments, inequality and poverty, especially among disadvantaged groups, fell to historic lows - and yet there WAS a massive crime wave.
verdverm 8mo ago
Have you learned about the Great Depression? You need not look further to find your first "practical problems"
- anovikov 8mo ago
  Great Depression is thoroughly unrelated. It was because of excess agricultural production by overleveraged farmers that forced them into further undermining themselves by overproduction, and eventual contagion of bad debt of those farmers propagating across the economy - made worse by unhinged, and unregulated, leveraged stock trading. It did not happen because of sudden productivity increase that put too many people out of work. No economic crises ever happened that way, and there is no reason to believe any will. This is what every economy strives to achieve and it's kinda stupid to be afraid of it. Some people can be hit hard, and it always happens during every technological revolution, but with sufficient investment into predictive policing and law enforcement overall, this is a manageable risk. Surely, a stock market shock can happen other way around - if AI will turn out to be a flop - but i believe this is not the risk you are talking about.
  - verdverm 8mo ago
    You're looking at causes, that's the wrong side. Your prior claim was about how you couldn't see the downsides of high unemployment. Look at what happened during the Great Depression, when unemployment was high. It doesn't matter how we get to high unemployment or depression status, but for sure there will be a lot of bad things, many more than you proclaim. Look to the Great Depression to see what the human condition and spirit was like if you are having trouble imagining possibilities
    - anovikov 8mo ago
      During the Great Depression there was also an economic collapse with deep decreases in production and consumption of just about everything - except useless production of what was already overproduced anyway. That could naturally make people depressed, strive for radical changes like Communism, etc. But we are speaking simply of mass unemployment. That alone is not enough to cause widespread despair.