5 ms·

Cars are not going away, there is one statement that ensures it: As public transport improves, traffic decreases, and the value a car provides increases. A 20

Cars are not going away, there is one statement that ensures it: As public transport improves, traffic decreases, and the value a car provides increases. A 20 minute commute with no traffic and parking right in front because everyone else took the bus/train? Sign me up.

monkey_monkey 9mo ago
Luckily in these situations it's likely that huge tax costs will be pushed onto private cars. Sign me up to that
bluGill 9mo ago
You can't sign up - at least not for long. As public transit improves companies quit putting in parking places up front - they still have shipping/receiving in back, but only delivery vehicles allowed. The parking lot is sold to someone else who just wants a building, increasing density. Meanwhile all those people riding transit means there is more demand for better transit. The above plays out over decades of course, and there are lots of competing factors.
- sfifs 9mo ago
  I'm curious. Where has this played out?
  - bluGill 9mo ago
    Manhattan, Toyoko... People still drive in cities, but the better transit is the worse driving becomes.
    - jcgl 9mo ago
      I think you’re misattrubuting causation here. There are numerous factors that distinguish those two places. Chiefly, they are among the densest places in the world. Generally speaking, cars are at odds with such extreme density, simply due to geometry (i.e. how much space driving requires); it’s super easy to saturate driving supply in such places. Think of mass transit and driving as being in an equilibrium with each other. Depending on where the bottleneck is in driving supply, shifting driving demand to transit demand (via improved transit infrastructure) should most often improve driving. Extreme density like the places you mentioned is challenging just because space is at such an extreme premium. I would argue (and I’m not alone here) that it’s especially challenging because driving is consistently underpriced; the fair value of driving there is likely far higher than the cost that drivers pay. In such circumstances, oversubscribed car infrastructure is the natural outcome.
triceratops 9mo ago
I don't know any city with amazing public transport where driving a private car isn't nightmarish.
- ben_w 9mo ago
  Berlin has amazing public transport (I moved here in 2018, I never needed to get a car), I've not heard anyone complain about the experience of driving.
- finolex1 9mo ago
  Singapore. But anyways, the order of causation is probably reversed. Cities with high density are forced to invest in good public transport by sheer public demand and pressure.
  - seanmcdirmid 9mo ago
    Singapore has an expensive plate tax that has to be renewed. They make owning a private car very expensive.
  - triceratops 9mo ago
    The nightmare there is paying for the car.
- bryanlarsen 9mo ago
  It appears that driving a private car in the Netherlands isn't near as nightmarish as elsewhere.
  - ezst 9mo ago
    The Netherlands is peculiar in that cyclists reclaimed their rights to the cities by kicking cars out of them.
    - bryanlarsen 9mo ago
      Cars haven't been kicked out of cities in the Netherlands.
ericmay 9mo ago
You're right that cars aren't going away, and I don't think it's a serious goal. The point about equilibrium you're not thinking through fully. If you'd have the 20 minute commute with no traffic and parking right in front of whoever you're going, everyone would do it and you'd just wind up with, well, not that. But as transit* improves you are able to do more with less, and instead of spending insane amounts of money on 5-lane highways and McDonald's for all and the extractive economics that come with that, you can maintain your existing infrastructure and give folks who can't, shouldn't or would prefer to not drive the option to get to whoever they are going without doing so. That frees up the existing highway infrastructure a little bit, reduces costs across the board, and has a lot of other nice benefits. You are effectively arguing against other transit methods and models because you'd rather sit in traffic, because without the introduction of alternatives that's what you are advocating for - again because everyone will be in the car and you'll never alleviate traffic and you'll never have a 20 minute commute with free and easy parking. * We should move away from the "public transportation" frame of reference. Highways are public transportation too, fully funded by taxpayers (in general, it maybe be uniquely different in some countries) and are an entrenched lobbying group that justify projects at the expense of the public too.
- DangitBobby 9mo ago
  I think you're reading a bit too much into their statement. I took it as pointing out the stable equilibrium due to incentives leads to a mix of cars and public transit, not that cars are a better option overall.
adrianN 9mo ago
Cars aren’t going away, but it is very easy to disincentivize their use in urban areas.
MisterTea 9mo ago
> A 20 minute commute with no traffic and parking right in front because everyone else took the bus/train? Sign me up. Indeed. I am not a people person so the idea of a solitary commute is massively appealing to me no matter the mode.

monkey_monkey 9mo ago

Luckily in these situations it's likely that huge tax costs will be pushed onto private cars. Sign me up to that

bluGill 9mo ago

You can't sign up - at least not for long. As public transit improves companies quit putting in parking places up front - they still have shipping/receiving in back, but only delivery vehicles allowed. The parking lot is sold to someone else who just wants a building, increasing density. Meanwhile all those people riding transit means there is more demand for better transit. The above plays out over decades of course, and there are lots of competing factors.

sfifs 9mo ago
I'm curious. Where has this played out?
- bluGill 9mo ago
  Manhattan, Toyoko... People still drive in cities, but the better transit is the worse driving becomes.
  - jcgl 9mo ago
    I think you’re misattrubuting causation here. There are numerous factors that distinguish those two places. Chiefly, they are among the densest places in the world. Generally speaking, cars are at odds with such extreme density, simply due to geometry (i.e. how much space driving requires); it’s super easy to saturate driving supply in such places. Think of mass transit and driving as being in an equilibrium with each other. Depending on where the bottleneck is in driving supply, shifting driving demand to transit demand (via improved transit infrastructure) should most often improve driving. Extreme density like the places you mentioned is challenging just because space is at such an extreme premium. I would argue (and I’m not alone here) that it’s especially challenging because driving is consistently underpriced; the fair value of driving there is likely far higher than the cost that drivers pay. In such circumstances, oversubscribed car infrastructure is the natural outcome.

triceratops 9mo ago

I don't know any city with amazing public transport where driving a private car isn't nightmarish.

ben_w 9mo ago
Berlin has amazing public transport (I moved here in 2018, I never needed to get a car), I've not heard anyone complain about the experience of driving.
finolex1 9mo ago
Singapore. But anyways, the order of causation is probably reversed. Cities with high density are forced to invest in good public transport by sheer public demand and pressure.
- seanmcdirmid 9mo ago
  Singapore has an expensive plate tax that has to be renewed. They make owning a private car very expensive.
- triceratops 9mo ago
  The nightmare there is paying for the car.
bryanlarsen 9mo ago
It appears that driving a private car in the Netherlands isn't near as nightmarish as elsewhere.
- ezst 9mo ago
  The Netherlands is peculiar in that cyclists reclaimed their rights to the cities by kicking cars out of them.
  - bryanlarsen 9mo ago
    Cars haven't been kicked out of cities in the Netherlands.

ericmay 9mo ago

You're right that cars aren't going away, and I don't think it's a serious goal. The point about equilibrium you're not thinking through fully. If you'd have the 20 minute commute with no traffic and parking right in front of whoever you're going, everyone would do it and you'd just wind up with, well, not that. But as transit* improves you are able to do more with less, and instead of spending insane amounts of money on 5-lane highways and McDonald's for all and the extractive economics that come with that, you can maintain your existing infrastructure and give folks who can't, shouldn't or would prefer to not drive the option to get to whoever they are going without doing so. That frees up the existing highway infrastructure a little bit, reduces costs across the board, and has a lot of other nice benefits. You are effectively arguing against other transit methods and models because you'd rather sit in traffic, because without the introduction of alternatives that's what you are advocating for - again because everyone will be in the car and you'll never alleviate traffic and you'll never have a 20 minute commute with free and easy parking. * We should move away from the "public transportation" frame of reference. Highways are public transportation too, fully funded by taxpayers (in general, it maybe be uniquely different in some countries) and are an entrenched lobbying group that justify projects at the expense of the public too.

DangitBobby 9mo ago
I think you're reading a bit too much into their statement. I took it as pointing out the stable equilibrium due to incentives leads to a mix of cars and public transit, not that cars are a better option overall.

adrianN 9mo ago

Cars aren’t going away, but it is very easy to disincentivize their use in urban areas.

MisterTea 9mo ago

> A 20 minute commute with no traffic and parking right in front because everyone else took the bus/train? Sign me up. Indeed. I am not a people person so the idea of a solitary commute is massively appealing to me no matter the mode.