4 ms·

Musk's goal all along was to get away from boutique production. He wants to sell millions of cheaper cars, not thousands of cars for wealthy people. Not sure

Musk's goal all along was to get away from boutique production. He wants to sell millions of cheaper cars, not thousands of cars for wealthy people. Not sure it's going to work out. Without some big jumps in battery tech, EVs are going to be difficult to sell without subsidies.

defrost 9mo ago
And yet Chinese EV's are flying out of their factories, well, a few are - most are self driving out to the shipping yards. This despite the 2025 support by the Chinese state for the Chines EV industry now being almost nothing. By contrast, defenders of China could point out that the data show that subsidies as a percentage of total sales have declined substantially, from over 40% in the early years to only 11.5% in 2023, which reflects a pattern in line with heavier support for infant industries, then a gradual reduction as they mature. In addition, they could note that the average support per vehicle has fallen from $13,860 in 2018 to just under $4,600 in 2023, which is less than the $7,500 credit that goes to buyers of qualifying vehicles as part of the U.S.’s Inflation Reduction Act. Old source: https://www.csis.org/blogs/trustee-china-hand/chinese-ev-dilemma-subsidized-yet-striking https://www.csis.org/blogs/trustee-china-hand/chinese-ev-dil... but the arc of less subsidies is clear.
- 01100011 9mo ago
  You'd expect subsidies to drop as supply chains mature and economies of scale kick in. What about subsidies to inputs like electricity, aluminum, batteries, etc?
  - defrost 9mo ago
    You would be better answered by reading the link and any methodology references. Perhaps "support" already factors in all relevant subsidies.
- thesmtsolver2 9mo ago
  You should also factor in lax human rights enforcement in China (which acts like a subsidy essentially in effect and is not factored in these calculations): https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/10/human-rights-ranking-electric-vehicle-industry/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/10/human-rights-... BYD is at the bottom of the list (worst for human rights). Tesla is second at the top (better for human rights).
  - defrost 9mo ago
    > You should also factor in ... Thank you for the suggestion. I should point out that is not my work, and dates from 2023. If you follow the link to the work quoted you might be able to contact the authors and pass them your thoughts.
    - claytongulick 9mo ago
      You are citing a source to tell a story about subsidies. Lack of worker safety standards can be considered to be a government subsidy when doing a comparison. Therefore, it's reasonable to point out that it should be factored in.
      - defrost 9mo ago
        Absolutely. Even better, suggest that the authors factor that in to their presentation. Now, I'm not going to tell you what _you_ should do, nor would I even tell you what I think you should do. I'll leave that to @thesmtsolver2 and others who enjoy that type of thing.
  - maxglute 9mo ago
    This is a retarded list of self reported paper commitments, not actual practice, i.e. no actual supply chain assessment was done, not that you can trust a propaganda shitrag like amnesty. Tesla simply "promises" in their PR to be better for human rights. Hint 50%+ of Tesla exports come from Tesla Shanghai which uses same supply raw material supply chain as rest of PRC auto, functionally they're the same. Meanwhile how do you factoring in PRC manufacturing is simply more modern with more labour saving automation, i.e. they simply have less people to "abuse". PRC simply be peak human rights by eliminating the most humans from process.
Retric 9mo ago
Musk would love to be selling several billion dollars per year of model S/X sales, the issue is they aren’t that competitive with other cars in the luxury segment thus the falling sales numbers. Tesla’s doesn’t really have a complex strategy at this point, they are getting squeezed out of the high end by legacy automakers where their lower cost batteries don’t matter as much. They are absolutely fucked on the low end as soon as Chinese cars enter the picture. So self driving is really the only option to sell any long term upside to keep the stock from tanking. It’s not a very convincing argument, but you play the hand your dealt.
- runako 9mo ago
  > getting squeezed out of the high end by legacy automakers where their lower cost batteries don’t matter as much. They are absolutely fucked on the low end as soon as Chinese cars enter the picture. The deep irony here is that after ~15 years of trying ti differentiate from the legacy American automakers, they land in a very similar competitive position. Chinese EVs are in the process of running the table outside the protectionist markets of the EU + US/Canada. Eventually those protective barriers will fall as they protect a relatively small number of citizens by taxing the majority. It remains to be seen whether the US and European domestic producers will survive.
- loeg 9mo ago
  What's their competition on the high end? Porsche, Cadillac? Do Rivian or Genesis count?
  - tw04 9mo ago
    Lucid runs circles around the S when it comes to build quality and features.
    - laughing_man 9mo ago
      What about sales, though?
      - 9mo ago
deleted 9mo ago
[deleted]
seattle_spring 9mo ago
> Musk's goal all along was to get away from boutique production. He wants to sell millions of cheaper cars, not thousands of cars for wealthy people. So the literal opposite of the Cybertruck, which was released less than a year ago.
- longitudinal93 9mo ago
  Not to mention the Roadster
  - ulfw 9mo ago
    The non-existing vehicle Musk still was able to get suckers to pay him for
- nehal3m 9mo ago
  According to the Wikipedia article the first one rolled off the line in November 2023. That’s a good two years.
littlestymaar 9mo ago
> He wants to sell millions of cheaper cars, not thousands of cars for wealthy people. Why hasn't the cheap car been designed yet then?
- laughing_man 9mo ago
  The Model 3 is pretty cheap for an EV. The average car in the US is over $50k now, so it's competitive on price.
  - ben_w 9mo ago
    If $50k is competitive for you, that should be a sign something's gone wrong. In Europe we can get new cars for less than half that price, both for domestic production and also post-tariffs on Chinese imports.
    - Ray20 9mo ago
      > If $50k is competitive for you, that should be a sign something's gone wrong. Or, on the contrary, a sign that something went right. If Europeans weren't drowning in poverty, they would also buy more expensive cars.
      - ben_w 9mo ago
        > Europeans weren't drowning in poverty How come the US has a higher rate of struggling with groceries (12.2% US vs 8.5% EU), healthcare (44% US vs. 18.6% for costs) EU, education costs, etc.? > they would also buy more expensive cars. Price != quality. European cars have better safety standards, as well as being cheaper to own and run. American cars… the vibe I got from them on trips was the expectation for them to serve as an additional air-conditioned entertainment room that just happened to be on wheels, whereas the European ones are mostly a mode of transport unless you're specifically into luxury brands.
        Ray20 9mo ago
Cthulhu_ 9mo ago
> Without some big jumps in battery tech, EVs are going to be difficult to sell without subsidies. The actual sales figures show otherwise, but sure, there's still a lot of uncertainty with regards to batteries / range, I can imagine even moreso in the US. Traveled to Austria a while ago in an EV (~1000 kilometers), we had to stop 3x on the way, but the battery was good for another 2.5 hours of driving after a coffee. I keep hearing that "solid state batteries are around the corner" and they will solve all problems with capacity and safety / fire risk, apparently. I'll just sit and wait patiently, it'll take years before their production capacity is on par with current battery tech.
- WarmWash 9mo ago
  The whole battery thing is a massive misunderstanding of how EVs work vs gas vehicles. For an EV with a range of 250 miles (400km) you can drive 400mi (645km) with one (1) thirty minute stop. That's pretty much, drive 3 hours, stop for 30 minute lunch, drive 3 hours. The confusion stems from the fact that gas cars don't fill up themselves before you depart, and they don't fill up themselves when you arrive. There are rather large differences between gas and electric cars, but people still treat EVs like gas cars, and demand EVs be more like gas cars.
  - saalweachter 9mo ago
    Isn't it more like 4 hours? The EPA tests at 55MPH, and driving faster than that will yield a lower range, so each 200 mile leg should take closer to 4 hours.
    - WarmWash 9mo ago
      I factored that in since a 250 mile EV is sold as usually around 300-320mi
      - tekknik 9mo ago
        You’re still giving the EV more range than it would have. You’re not supposed to drop below 20% or charge above 80% so following that an EV with 300 miles total range would only have 180 while in a gas car you can comfortably nearly empty the tank without issue.
panick21_ 9mo ago
If his goal was to sell millions of cars he would have developed something beyond Model 3 and Y. But he canceled the next generation programs.

defrost 9mo ago

And yet Chinese EV's are flying out of their factories, well, a few are - most are self driving out to the shipping yards. This despite the 2025 support by the Chinese state for the Chines EV industry now being almost nothing. By contrast, defenders of China could point out that the data show that subsidies as a percentage of total sales have declined substantially, from over 40% in the early years to only 11.5% in 2023, which reflects a pattern in line with heavier support for infant industries, then a gradual reduction as they mature. In addition, they could note that the average support per vehicle has fallen from $13,860 in 2018 to just under $4,600 in 2023, which is less than the $7,500 credit that goes to buyers of qualifying vehicles as part of the U.S.’s Inflation Reduction Act. Old source: https://www.csis.org/blogs/trustee-china-hand/chinese-ev-dilemma-subsidized-yet-striking https://www.csis.org/blogs/trustee-china-hand/chinese-ev-dil... but the arc of less subsidies is clear.

01100011 9mo ago
You'd expect subsidies to drop as supply chains mature and economies of scale kick in. What about subsidies to inputs like electricity, aluminum, batteries, etc?
- defrost 9mo ago
  You would be better answered by reading the link and any methodology references. Perhaps "support" already factors in all relevant subsidies.
thesmtsolver2 9mo ago
You should also factor in lax human rights enforcement in China (which acts like a subsidy essentially in effect and is not factored in these calculations): https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/10/human-rights-ranking-electric-vehicle-industry/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/10/human-rights-... BYD is at the bottom of the list (worst for human rights). Tesla is second at the top (better for human rights).
- defrost 9mo ago
  > You should also factor in ... Thank you for the suggestion. I should point out that is not my work, and dates from 2023. If you follow the link to the work quoted you might be able to contact the authors and pass them your thoughts.
  - claytongulick 9mo ago
    You are citing a source to tell a story about subsidies. Lack of worker safety standards can be considered to be a government subsidy when doing a comparison. Therefore, it's reasonable to point out that it should be factored in.
    - defrost 9mo ago
      Absolutely. Even better, suggest that the authors factor that in to their presentation. Now, I'm not going to tell you what _you_ should do, nor would I even tell you what I think you should do. I'll leave that to @thesmtsolver2 and others who enjoy that type of thing.
- maxglute 9mo ago
  This is a retarded list of self reported paper commitments, not actual practice, i.e. no actual supply chain assessment was done, not that you can trust a propaganda shitrag like amnesty. Tesla simply "promises" in their PR to be better for human rights. Hint 50%+ of Tesla exports come from Tesla Shanghai which uses same supply raw material supply chain as rest of PRC auto, functionally they're the same. Meanwhile how do you factoring in PRC manufacturing is simply more modern with more labour saving automation, i.e. they simply have less people to "abuse". PRC simply be peak human rights by eliminating the most humans from process.

Retric 9mo ago

Musk would love to be selling several billion dollars per year of model S/X sales, the issue is they aren’t that competitive with other cars in the luxury segment thus the falling sales numbers. Tesla’s doesn’t really have a complex strategy at this point, they are getting squeezed out of the high end by legacy automakers where their lower cost batteries don’t matter as much. They are absolutely fucked on the low end as soon as Chinese cars enter the picture. So self driving is really the only option to sell any long term upside to keep the stock from tanking. It’s not a very convincing argument, but you play the hand your dealt.

runako 9mo ago
> getting squeezed out of the high end by legacy automakers where their lower cost batteries don’t matter as much. They are absolutely fucked on the low end as soon as Chinese cars enter the picture. The deep irony here is that after ~15 years of trying ti differentiate from the legacy American automakers, they land in a very similar competitive position. Chinese EVs are in the process of running the table outside the protectionist markets of the EU + US/Canada. Eventually those protective barriers will fall as they protect a relatively small number of citizens by taxing the majority. It remains to be seen whether the US and European domestic producers will survive.
loeg 9mo ago
What's their competition on the high end? Porsche, Cadillac? Do Rivian or Genesis count?
- tw04 9mo ago
  Lucid runs circles around the S when it comes to build quality and features.
  - laughing_man 9mo ago
    What about sales, though?
    - 9mo ago

deleted 9mo ago

[deleted]

seattle_spring 9mo ago

> Musk's goal all along was to get away from boutique production. He wants to sell millions of cheaper cars, not thousands of cars for wealthy people. So the literal opposite of the Cybertruck, which was released less than a year ago.

longitudinal93 9mo ago
Not to mention the Roadster
- ulfw 9mo ago
  The non-existing vehicle Musk still was able to get suckers to pay him for
nehal3m 9mo ago
According to the Wikipedia article the first one rolled off the line in November 2023. That’s a good two years.

littlestymaar 9mo ago

> He wants to sell millions of cheaper cars, not thousands of cars for wealthy people. Why hasn't the cheap car been designed yet then?

laughing_man 9mo ago
The Model 3 is pretty cheap for an EV. The average car in the US is over $50k now, so it's competitive on price.
- ben_w 9mo ago
  If $50k is competitive for you, that should be a sign something's gone wrong. In Europe we can get new cars for less than half that price, both for domestic production and also post-tariffs on Chinese imports.
  - Ray20 9mo ago
    > If $50k is competitive for you, that should be a sign something's gone wrong. Or, on the contrary, a sign that something went right. If Europeans weren't drowning in poverty, they would also buy more expensive cars.
    - ben_w 9mo ago
      > Europeans weren't drowning in poverty How come the US has a higher rate of struggling with groceries (12.2% US vs 8.5% EU), healthcare (44% US vs. 18.6% for costs) EU, education costs, etc.? > they would also buy more expensive cars. Price != quality. European cars have better safety standards, as well as being cheaper to own and run. American cars… the vibe I got from them on trips was the expectation for them to serve as an additional air-conditioned entertainment room that just happened to be on wheels, whereas the European ones are mostly a mode of transport unless you're specifically into luxury brands.
      - Ray20 9mo ago

Cthulhu_ 9mo ago

> Without some big jumps in battery tech, EVs are going to be difficult to sell without subsidies. The actual sales figures show otherwise, but sure, there's still a lot of uncertainty with regards to batteries / range, I can imagine even moreso in the US. Traveled to Austria a while ago in an EV (~1000 kilometers), we had to stop 3x on the way, but the battery was good for another 2.5 hours of driving after a coffee. I keep hearing that "solid state batteries are around the corner" and they will solve all problems with capacity and safety / fire risk, apparently. I'll just sit and wait patiently, it'll take years before their production capacity is on par with current battery tech.

WarmWash 9mo ago
The whole battery thing is a massive misunderstanding of how EVs work vs gas vehicles. For an EV with a range of 250 miles (400km) you can drive 400mi (645km) with one (1) thirty minute stop. That's pretty much, drive 3 hours, stop for 30 minute lunch, drive 3 hours. The confusion stems from the fact that gas cars don't fill up themselves before you depart, and they don't fill up themselves when you arrive. There are rather large differences between gas and electric cars, but people still treat EVs like gas cars, and demand EVs be more like gas cars.
- saalweachter 9mo ago
  Isn't it more like 4 hours? The EPA tests at 55MPH, and driving faster than that will yield a lower range, so each 200 mile leg should take closer to 4 hours.
  - WarmWash 9mo ago
    I factored that in since a 250 mile EV is sold as usually around 300-320mi
    - tekknik 9mo ago
      You’re still giving the EV more range than it would have. You’re not supposed to drop below 20% or charge above 80% so following that an EV with 300 miles total range would only have 180 while in a gas car you can comfortably nearly empty the tank without issue.

panick21_ 9mo ago

If his goal was to sell millions of cars he would have developed something beyond Model 3 and Y. But he canceled the next generation programs.