4 ms·

Agreed, let alone 1M units a year!

tombert 9mo ago
My dad found it extremely amusing that Elon said "we just have to solve the 'AI problem' and we'll have robots doing shopping for us", or something like that. I can't remember the exact verbiage, but that was the gist. The word "just" is doing a lot of work there. Going by that logic: We "just" need to figure out cold fusion to have effectively infinite energy. We "just" need to develop warp drives to travel across the galaxy. We "just" need to figure out the chemo problem to cure cancer.
- arw0n 9mo ago
  It is like me at the climbing gym: "This problem is too hard for me, let's work on a harder one instead, then I at least look cool while failing." "Since we failed on self-driving since 2016, robotaxis since 2020 (1 million on the road), and ASI since 2023, we might as well start on failing on robots now".
  - autarch 9mo ago
    Nice. I think my new climbing routine will be to just look at the 5.13 and mime moves from the ground for an hour, then go home.
    - disillusioned 9mo ago
      I _could_ flash this V12 but what would be the point?
- mraniki 9mo ago
  Interview in Davos. The “right” has the same touch than the “just” here: > MUSK: Yeah. But I think self-driving cars is essentially a solved problem at this point, right? And Tesla’s rolled out a sort of robo-taxi service in a few cities, and will be very, very widespread by the end of this year within the U.S. And then we hope to get supervised full self-driving approval in Europe, hopefully next month. Source: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IgifEgm1-e0 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IgifEgm1-e0
  - tombert 9mo ago
    It's amazing how much hand-waving rich people are allowed to get away with. If I tried that people would (correctly) call bullshit.
    - disillusioned 9mo ago
      Ah, see, no, and this is why you'll never be rich^. The rich people don't ever listen to that "if I tried that people would call bullshit" voice. They just try it. And try it again. And keep trying it. And then they become CEOs or President or whatever. They literally just keep doing it. It doesn't matter how untethered what they're saying is from reality. It doesn't matter that it's pure bullshit. They just keep going and pick up enough followers and the rest snowballs from there. Twas ever thus. How do you think every cult or religion to every form has come about? How do you think every dictator has come to power? They vehemently, psychotically ignored "if I tried that" and just tried it and kept repeating it until the cognitive dissonance wore down into oblivion and the pathological washed over them. ^Sociopathic rich, I mean. I'm sure you're doing fine.
      - tombert 9mo ago
        I don't dispute any of that; I really hate plugging my own stuff but I actually wrote a blog post about a similar topic last night [1]. TL;DR Billionaires are sociopaths who act sociopathic and then define anything that doesn't benefit their sociopathy as a "disorder". It's not that I'm surprised that they constantly lie, I'm just surprised anyone falls for it. Like, we were supposed to have "full self driving by next year", every year as far back as 2018, if I remember correctly. You'd think after the third time that FSD didn't happen, people would say "maybe this guy is actually full of shit". [1] https://blog.tombert.com/Posts/Personal/2026/01-January/What-is-a-Disorder https://blog.tombert.com/Posts/Personal/2026/01-January/What...
  - Animats 9mo ago
    MUSK: Yeah. But I think self-driving cars is essentially a solved problem at this point, right? And Tesla’s rolled out a sort of robo-taxi service in a few cities, and will be very, very widespread by the end of this year within the U.S. He said that would happen in 2025. And probably earlier, too.
- jcgrillo 9mo ago
  We "just" need to figure out the terraforming problem then we can all move to Mars and be interplanetary explorers. Imagine how cool it would be to have corporate leaders who had vision--environmentally friendly automobiles, cheap space travel, etc.--without the clammy snake oil grifter bullshit. Reality is cool AF. The things that are actually achievable are amazing. We don't need to spout nonsense to do great things. We don't need "AGI" (whatever that might be) to do neat things with machine learning. The Jetsons is a cartoon. Trying to make it real is dumb.
  - tonyhart7 9mo ago
    we need AGI and robot so people can leave chore in house to a robot
  - disillusioned 9mo ago
    The Mars obsession absolutely blows me away. Like, he's obviously read KSR's Red Mars. He's obviously aware of the conditions out there. Mars is a fuckin' bummer. It is absolutely hostile to human life. Sure, we'll land people there, and maybe set up some sort of station if we really want to throw a few trillion dollars away from actual problems here on earth... but it's not going to be pleasant. Not anytime, ever. The gravity sucks. The dust and fines suck. The storms suck. And last for months. The temperatures suck. There's no "outside". There's no trivial way to generate power at scale. There's no magnetosphere, so you'll get cancer. The soil is poisonous. Elon's stuck with this 12-year-old-boy absurdity about "becoming interplanetary to save the species" as if Mars could ever be a practical lifeboat when we inevitably drive the planet into the ground or a meteor hits. It's... absurd, puerile fantasy.
    - tombert 9mo ago
      I think there's value in space exploration even for its own sake, but I think it's utterly idiotic to think that we're going to realistically be able to terraform Mars in the next century if ever. Even if I do think it's worth exploring space, including Mars, I think it's silly to assume that it's going to be a way to guarantee the permanence of humanity.
- tonyhart7 9mo ago
  I am also certain given time this problem is achievable but the problem is what we expect after that ????? mass unemployment or we just convert all human into robot repairer ???? what the end goal there
  - tw04 9mo ago
    Basically yes. The robots take care of the rich, and poor people with their need to have a cut of the resources just go away. They do believe in a post capitalism utopia, they just think only about a thousand people need to enjoy it.
  - joquarky 8mo ago
    > I went through this Ford engine plant about three years ago, when they first opened it. > There are acres and acres of machines, and here and there you will find a worker standing at a master switchboard, just watching, green and yellow lights blinking off and on, which tell the worker what is happening in the machine. > One of the management people, with a slightly gleeful tone in his voice said to me, “How are you going to collect union dues from all these machines?” > And I replied, “You know, that is not what’s bothering me. I’m troubled by the problem of how to sell automobiles to these machines - Walter Reuther, Nov. 1956 https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/11/16/robots-buy-cars https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/11/16/robots-buy-cars
- anonzzzies 9mo ago
  I find it amusing listening to his Q1 earnings calls; every year the same exact blabber of robots everywhere 'end of the year', self driving tesla's everywhere after the summer, mars next year etc. Every Bloody Year. The real clever thing of this guy, no matter how smart/not/nazi/whatever he is, is the fact that investors KEEP throwing money in even though the major ones are on those earning calls every year for a decade already and of course that these stocks are not cratering. But I recommend listening to those calls, start 5 years back; because on reddit but also here, you get wide eyed awestruck people who say 'ow optimus is december this year! ow self driving everything in september!'.
- yokoprime 9mo ago
  Its classic Elon over-promising. Problem with robots is that they are useless without AI, while cars can be driven by a human, so as long as controls work and range is good they are viable
- everdrive 9mo ago
  And why would we even need or want robots shopping for us? I mean, most of us. For some disabled individuals it could be a benefit. For everyone else, it seems like the height of laziness and absurdity.
  - vel0city 9mo ago
    Tons of people hire people to do their shopping. Curbside pickup and grocery delivery has existed for a while. A large amount of the people I see in grocery store around me are working as pickers filling online orders.

My dad found it extremely amusing that Elon said "we just have to solve the 'AI problem' and we'll have robots doing shopping for us", or something like that. I can't remember the exact verbiage, but that was the gist. The word "just" is doing a lot of work there. Going by that logic: We "just" need to figure out cold fusion to have effectively infinite energy. We "just" need to develop warp drives to travel across the galaxy. We "just" need to figure out the chemo problem to cure cancer.

arw0n 9mo ago
It is like me at the climbing gym: "This problem is too hard for me, let's work on a harder one instead, then I at least look cool while failing." "Since we failed on self-driving since 2016, robotaxis since 2020 (1 million on the road), and ASI since 2023, we might as well start on failing on robots now".
- autarch 9mo ago
  Nice. I think my new climbing routine will be to just look at the 5.13 and mime moves from the ground for an hour, then go home.
  - disillusioned 9mo ago
    I _could_ flash this V12 but what would be the point?
mraniki 9mo ago
Interview in Davos. The “right” has the same touch than the “just” here: > MUSK: Yeah. But I think self-driving cars is essentially a solved problem at this point, right? And Tesla’s rolled out a sort of robo-taxi service in a few cities, and will be very, very widespread by the end of this year within the U.S. And then we hope to get supervised full self-driving approval in Europe, hopefully next month. Source: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IgifEgm1-e0 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IgifEgm1-e0
- tombert 9mo ago
  It's amazing how much hand-waving rich people are allowed to get away with. If I tried that people would (correctly) call bullshit.
  - disillusioned 9mo ago
    Ah, see, no, and this is why you'll never be rich^. The rich people don't ever listen to that "if I tried that people would call bullshit" voice. They just try it. And try it again. And keep trying it. And then they become CEOs or President or whatever. They literally just keep doing it. It doesn't matter how untethered what they're saying is from reality. It doesn't matter that it's pure bullshit. They just keep going and pick up enough followers and the rest snowballs from there. Twas ever thus. How do you think every cult or religion to every form has come about? How do you think every dictator has come to power? They vehemently, psychotically ignored "if I tried that" and just tried it and kept repeating it until the cognitive dissonance wore down into oblivion and the pathological washed over them. ^Sociopathic rich, I mean. I'm sure you're doing fine.
    - tombert 9mo ago
      I don't dispute any of that; I really hate plugging my own stuff but I actually wrote a blog post about a similar topic last night [1]. TL;DR Billionaires are sociopaths who act sociopathic and then define anything that doesn't benefit their sociopathy as a "disorder". It's not that I'm surprised that they constantly lie, I'm just surprised anyone falls for it. Like, we were supposed to have "full self driving by next year", every year as far back as 2018, if I remember correctly. You'd think after the third time that FSD didn't happen, people would say "maybe this guy is actually full of shit". [1] https://blog.tombert.com/Posts/Personal/2026/01-January/What-is-a-Disorder https://blog.tombert.com/Posts/Personal/2026/01-January/What...
- Animats 9mo ago
  MUSK: Yeah. But I think self-driving cars is essentially a solved problem at this point, right? And Tesla’s rolled out a sort of robo-taxi service in a few cities, and will be very, very widespread by the end of this year within the U.S. He said that would happen in 2025. And probably earlier, too.
jcgrillo 9mo ago
We "just" need to figure out the terraforming problem then we can all move to Mars and be interplanetary explorers. Imagine how cool it would be to have corporate leaders who had vision--environmentally friendly automobiles, cheap space travel, etc.--without the clammy snake oil grifter bullshit. Reality is cool AF. The things that are actually achievable are amazing. We don't need to spout nonsense to do great things. We don't need "AGI" (whatever that might be) to do neat things with machine learning. The Jetsons is a cartoon. Trying to make it real is dumb.
- tonyhart7 9mo ago
  we need AGI and robot so people can leave chore in house to a robot
- disillusioned 9mo ago
  The Mars obsession absolutely blows me away. Like, he's obviously read KSR's Red Mars. He's obviously aware of the conditions out there. Mars is a fuckin' bummer. It is absolutely hostile to human life. Sure, we'll land people there, and maybe set up some sort of station if we really want to throw a few trillion dollars away from actual problems here on earth... but it's not going to be pleasant. Not anytime, ever. The gravity sucks. The dust and fines suck. The storms suck. And last for months. The temperatures suck. There's no "outside". There's no trivial way to generate power at scale. There's no magnetosphere, so you'll get cancer. The soil is poisonous. Elon's stuck with this 12-year-old-boy absurdity about "becoming interplanetary to save the species" as if Mars could ever be a practical lifeboat when we inevitably drive the planet into the ground or a meteor hits. It's... absurd, puerile fantasy.
  - tombert 9mo ago
    I think there's value in space exploration even for its own sake, but I think it's utterly idiotic to think that we're going to realistically be able to terraform Mars in the next century if ever. Even if I do think it's worth exploring space, including Mars, I think it's silly to assume that it's going to be a way to guarantee the permanence of humanity.
tonyhart7 9mo ago
I am also certain given time this problem is achievable but the problem is what we expect after that ????? mass unemployment or we just convert all human into robot repairer ???? what the end goal there
- tw04 9mo ago
  Basically yes. The robots take care of the rich, and poor people with their need to have a cut of the resources just go away. They do believe in a post capitalism utopia, they just think only about a thousand people need to enjoy it.
- joquarky 8mo ago
  > I went through this Ford engine plant about three years ago, when they first opened it. > There are acres and acres of machines, and here and there you will find a worker standing at a master switchboard, just watching, green and yellow lights blinking off and on, which tell the worker what is happening in the machine. > One of the management people, with a slightly gleeful tone in his voice said to me, “How are you going to collect union dues from all these machines?” > And I replied, “You know, that is not what’s bothering me. I’m troubled by the problem of how to sell automobiles to these machines - Walter Reuther, Nov. 1956 https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/11/16/robots-buy-cars https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/11/16/robots-buy-cars
anonzzzies 9mo ago
I find it amusing listening to his Q1 earnings calls; every year the same exact blabber of robots everywhere 'end of the year', self driving tesla's everywhere after the summer, mars next year etc. Every Bloody Year. The real clever thing of this guy, no matter how smart/not/nazi/whatever he is, is the fact that investors KEEP throwing money in even though the major ones are on those earning calls every year for a decade already and of course that these stocks are not cratering. But I recommend listening to those calls, start 5 years back; because on reddit but also here, you get wide eyed awestruck people who say 'ow optimus is december this year! ow self driving everything in september!'.
yokoprime 9mo ago
Its classic Elon over-promising. Problem with robots is that they are useless without AI, while cars can be driven by a human, so as long as controls work and range is good they are viable
everdrive 9mo ago
And why would we even need or want robots shopping for us? I mean, most of us. For some disabled individuals it could be a benefit. For everyone else, it seems like the height of laziness and absurdity.
- vel0city 9mo ago
  Tons of people hire people to do their shopping. Curbside pickup and grocery delivery has existed for a while. A large amount of the people I see in grocery store around me are working as pickers filling online orders.