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> Global economy doesn't look that terrible. It doesn't? I was born in the 90s (so admittedly 2008 was before I started working), but the economy is looking th

> Global economy doesn't look that terrible. It doesn't? I was born in the 90s (so admittedly 2008 was before I started working), but the economy is looking the worst it's been in my lifetime to me.

ryandrake 9mo ago
The economy is currently great if your income is from your investments rather than from your labor. The relative comfort and power of the capital class vs. labor class has never been farther apart in my lifetime.
jeffbee 9mo ago
Yeah, that's one perspective :-) Objectively, the global labor market is the hottest it has been in modern history.
- eli_gottlieb 9mo ago
  Which is why governments and firms in the capitalist core are trying to cool it down?
  - jeffbee 9mo ago
    There is a case to be made that wage spirals are bad, actually.
- loeg 9mo ago
  Well. Maybe not quite as hot as 2022. But by any standard from a year before 2020, yeah.
bdamm 9mo ago
2008/09 was the worst this xennial ever saw so I think you're as qualified as most of us.
- hajile 9mo ago
  Everyone was trying to pretend the bottom of the market back in 2007 right up until they couldn't keep up the farce and everything collapsed. I believe that's what we have today. The economic indicators are all worse than they were in 2008. Our economy is Wile E Coyote running at full speed in midair until he realizes the truth then falls.
  - JohnnyMarcone 9mo ago
    The fed was taking action by increasing rates up until the housing market collapsed, so at least some were taking the issues seriously. I don't have the full context of what the thinking was back then since I was in highschool.
loeg 9mo ago
2008 was a lot worse.
- cmrdporcupine 9mo ago
  2008 didn't really impact tech sector much though. Companies continued to hire through it, and in fact those that didn't often had a headcount deficit afterwards. And also the worst of 2008 was confined to the US. What we have now is more like 2001. Also most of these big companies were completely dysfunctional on their hiring through 21/22, just going completely apeshit. Now they're making everyone suffer for it.
  - loeg 9mo ago
    Much less severe than 2001, where tech lost 250,000 jobs peak to trough (~18.5% from 2001 to 2003). Current downturn from peak (2022) is about 80,000 jobs (~3.2%). The timeframe for this period is longer and the magnitude is much lower. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6054150001 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6054150001
    - cmrdporcupine 9mo ago
      Interesting. I guess I'm surprised, because having lived through both, this somehow feels worse.
      - acdha 9mo ago
        In 2001, there were a ton of non-dotcom jobs where big companies, non-profits, governments, etc. wanted to move online for the real benefits it offered but had struggled to lure people away from bubble money. The people I knew who were laid off got jobs pretty quickly once they were looking outside of SF startups—not always the same money, but sometimes better and never much worse, and still building relevant career experience. The market is mature now, and most sectors of the economy are getting hammered at the same time: tariffs have most industries cautious about new commitments if they aren’t already cutting, academia is reeling from grants being rescinded, large chunks of federal spending are gone or frozen, and state/local governments are getting less federal funding at the same time everything else is affecting tax revenue and increasing demand for social services. With so much uncertainty affecting the entire economy, you hear from people who have hundreds of interviews because even established companies in stable industries are unsure what tomorrow will look like after the next whim of an unstable octogenarian.
paxys 9mo ago
By what metrics?
kindatrue 9mo ago
There were points in 2008 where there were bank runs. https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2008-jul-12-fi-indymac12-story.html https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2008-jul-12-fi-indym... https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/oct/11/banking-crisis-one-year-on https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/oct/11/banking-cri... Italy had to buy 3% of Parmigiano Reggiano production. https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/europe/rome-stages-big-cheese-bailout-for-parmesan-1067067.html https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/europe/rome-stage...
rich_sasha 9mo ago
US real GDP is racing ahead: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1 . Inflation is fine, even if you don't fully believe the official numbers: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA . Unemployment is increasing but below long term mean: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE . Interest rates are at a reasonably business-friendly level. This is all the USofA. Elsewhere, China is allegedly also printing GDP growth like crazy. Europe is maybe a little stagnant but also not, on the whole, awful. At the face of it, it's at least a C+ if not better. So if you'd claim it's terrible, there's some explaining to do.
- TheOtherHobbes 9mo ago
  It always takes 6 to 12 months for the graphs to match the reality on the ground. Because that's how long it takes most people to run out of money and credit.
- no_wizard 9mo ago
  I'm going to set aside GDP for a moment, which is hardly the full story but instead I want to zoom in on inflation. The Federal Reserve of St. Louis is using the CPI numbers, as most government agencies do. I would contend those numbers in and of themselves lie. The ALICE index, which is based on more comprehensive data[0][1] and closer to what CPI used to represent before the major adjustments in the 1990s, tells a different story[2] Inflation against the ALICE index is much higher than the 3% reported in by the Federal Reserve, running at a stark 5.9% YoY change. This honestly lines up much closer to the reality I see in my day to day life than the CPI numbers reported by the Federal Reserve do. [0]: https://www.unitedforalice.org/methodology https://www.unitedforalice.org/methodology [1]: I recommend downloading the PDF here: https://www.unitedforalice.org/Attachments/Methodology/ALICE-Methodology-final-May-2025.pdf https://www.unitedforalice.org/Attachments/Methodology/ALICE... [1]: https://www.unitedforalice.org/essentials-index https://www.unitedforalice.org/essentials-index
- didibus 9mo ago
  > So if you'd claim it's terrible, there's some explaining to do Here's the explaining: - Unemployment has increased. - Long-Term unemployment has increased. - Number of gig workers is at an all time high. - Layoffs have continued. - Personal household dept is at an all time high. - Polls show most people have financial anxiety and feel squeezed. - Inflation is not under control. - Buy now pay later usage is up as much as consumer spending is. - Income and wealth inequality are near records high. - GDP and consumer spending were also seen peaking before the last 5 recessions as well... We're all talking predictions, I don't think either of us should pretend to know the future, but there are counterpoints and so the data does not all look rosy.

> Global economy doesn't look that terrible. It doesn't? I was born in the 90s (so admittedly 2008 was before I started working), but the economy is looking the worst it's been in my lifetime to me.

ryandrake 9mo ago

The economy is currently great if your income is from your investments rather than from your labor. The relative comfort and power of the capital class vs. labor class has never been farther apart in my lifetime.

jeffbee 9mo ago

Yeah, that's one perspective :-) Objectively, the global labor market is the hottest it has been in modern history.

eli_gottlieb 9mo ago
Which is why governments and firms in the capitalist core are trying to cool it down?
- jeffbee 9mo ago
  There is a case to be made that wage spirals are bad, actually.
loeg 9mo ago
Well. Maybe not quite as hot as 2022. But by any standard from a year before 2020, yeah.

bdamm 9mo ago

2008/09 was the worst this xennial ever saw so I think you're as qualified as most of us.

hajile 9mo ago
Everyone was trying to pretend the bottom of the market back in 2007 right up until they couldn't keep up the farce and everything collapsed. I believe that's what we have today. The economic indicators are all worse than they were in 2008. Our economy is Wile E Coyote running at full speed in midair until he realizes the truth then falls.
- JohnnyMarcone 9mo ago
  The fed was taking action by increasing rates up until the housing market collapsed, so at least some were taking the issues seriously. I don't have the full context of what the thinking was back then since I was in highschool.

loeg 9mo ago

2008 was a lot worse.

cmrdporcupine 9mo ago
2008 didn't really impact tech sector much though. Companies continued to hire through it, and in fact those that didn't often had a headcount deficit afterwards. And also the worst of 2008 was confined to the US. What we have now is more like 2001. Also most of these big companies were completely dysfunctional on their hiring through 21/22, just going completely apeshit. Now they're making everyone suffer for it.
- loeg 9mo ago
  Much less severe than 2001, where tech lost 250,000 jobs peak to trough (~18.5% from 2001 to 2003). Current downturn from peak (2022) is about 80,000 jobs (~3.2%). The timeframe for this period is longer and the magnitude is much lower. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6054150001 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6054150001
  - cmrdporcupine 9mo ago
    Interesting. I guess I'm surprised, because having lived through both, this somehow feels worse.
    - acdha 9mo ago
      In 2001, there were a ton of non-dotcom jobs where big companies, non-profits, governments, etc. wanted to move online for the real benefits it offered but had struggled to lure people away from bubble money. The people I knew who were laid off got jobs pretty quickly once they were looking outside of SF startups—not always the same money, but sometimes better and never much worse, and still building relevant career experience. The market is mature now, and most sectors of the economy are getting hammered at the same time: tariffs have most industries cautious about new commitments if they aren’t already cutting, academia is reeling from grants being rescinded, large chunks of federal spending are gone or frozen, and state/local governments are getting less federal funding at the same time everything else is affecting tax revenue and increasing demand for social services. With so much uncertainty affecting the entire economy, you hear from people who have hundreds of interviews because even established companies in stable industries are unsure what tomorrow will look like after the next whim of an unstable octogenarian.

paxys 9mo ago

By what metrics?

kindatrue 9mo ago

There were points in 2008 where there were bank runs. https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2008-jul-12-fi-indymac12-story.html https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2008-jul-12-fi-indym... https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/oct/11/banking-crisis-one-year-on https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/oct/11/banking-cri... Italy had to buy 3% of Parmigiano Reggiano production. https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/europe/rome-stages-big-cheese-bailout-for-parmesan-1067067.html https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/europe/rome-stage...

rich_sasha 9mo ago

US real GDP is racing ahead: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1 . Inflation is fine, even if you don't fully believe the official numbers: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA . Unemployment is increasing but below long term mean: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE . Interest rates are at a reasonably business-friendly level. This is all the USofA. Elsewhere, China is allegedly also printing GDP growth like crazy. Europe is maybe a little stagnant but also not, on the whole, awful. At the face of it, it's at least a C+ if not better. So if you'd claim it's terrible, there's some explaining to do.

TheOtherHobbes 9mo ago
It always takes 6 to 12 months for the graphs to match the reality on the ground. Because that's how long it takes most people to run out of money and credit.
no_wizard 9mo ago
I'm going to set aside GDP for a moment, which is hardly the full story but instead I want to zoom in on inflation. The Federal Reserve of St. Louis is using the CPI numbers, as most government agencies do. I would contend those numbers in and of themselves lie. The ALICE index, which is based on more comprehensive data[0][1] and closer to what CPI used to represent before the major adjustments in the 1990s, tells a different story[2] Inflation against the ALICE index is much higher than the 3% reported in by the Federal Reserve, running at a stark 5.9% YoY change. This honestly lines up much closer to the reality I see in my day to day life than the CPI numbers reported by the Federal Reserve do. [0]: https://www.unitedforalice.org/methodology https://www.unitedforalice.org/methodology [1]: I recommend downloading the PDF here: https://www.unitedforalice.org/Attachments/Methodology/ALICE-Methodology-final-May-2025.pdf https://www.unitedforalice.org/Attachments/Methodology/ALICE... [1]: https://www.unitedforalice.org/essentials-index https://www.unitedforalice.org/essentials-index
didibus 9mo ago
> So if you'd claim it's terrible, there's some explaining to do Here's the explaining: - Unemployment has increased. - Long-Term unemployment has increased. - Number of gig workers is at an all time high. - Layoffs have continued. - Personal household dept is at an all time high. - Polls show most people have financial anxiety and feel squeezed. - Inflation is not under control. - Buy now pay later usage is up as much as consumer spending is. - Income and wealth inequality are near records high. - GDP and consumer spending were also seen peaking before the last 5 recessions as well... We're all talking predictions, I don't think either of us should pretend to know the future, but there are counterpoints and so the data does not all look rosy.