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Isn't this the same problem of many people who feel otherwise not participating in polls? The conservative subreddit shows a very different story. I'm sure the

Isn't this the same problem of many people who feel otherwise not participating in polls? The conservative subreddit shows a very different story. I'm sure the asktrumpsupporters sub does also.

halfmatthalfcat 9mo ago
I would not be making generalizations on any group based on what spews out of Reddit.
- JCattheATM 9mo ago
  It's fair to judge a community by the average sentiment their members post.
  - bulbar 9mo ago
    Begs the question if the conservative Reddit community really represents the average Republican voter. I don't think so.
    - JCattheATM 9mo ago
      The average republican voter voted for trump, so I do think so.
      - halfmatthalfcat 9mo ago
        They voted R, there's no way to make the distinction on why they voted.
        JCattheATM 9mo ago
        Nonsense. A vote for R was a vote for T.
        estearum 9mo ago
        A vote for T is not a vote for every dimension of T. In fact, all the data shows that the economy was the absolute top issue by a huge margin. There's good reason to believe that not only would any Republican have gotten similar or better results, but that if it had been a Republican in power, that any Democrat would've gotten similar or better results. Incumbents got smacked (far harder than Trump v Harris) in every election in the world in 2024, which is concordant with a long history of incumbents getting smacked during periods of high inflation.
        JCattheATM 9mo ago
        > A vote for T is not a vote for every dimension of T. Does. Not. Matter. When you vote for T you know you are getting all of T. > In fact, all the data shows that the economy was the absolute top issue by a huge margin. Sure, and the poorly educated overwhelmingly chose to believe the lies they were told because they were attractive, and were taken advantage of. It doesn't matter. Lets say they were single issue voters on the economy, well, they still voted for T knowing all of what that entails.
        estearum 9mo ago
        Sure, I agree with all that? They're all morally culpable. That's totally irrelevant as to whether the current actions are actually popular.
        JCattheATM 9mo ago
        > Sure, I agree with all that? Then there was no sense in you pointing out that a vote for T is not a vote for every dimension of T, since pointing out the obvious and gets another answer pointing out the obvious in response. > That's totally irrelevant as to whether the current actions are actually popular. You've chosen to rely on a single poll that supports your contention that they aren't, when pretty much every single other source of info is contrary to that. You want to put all your faith in a poll, that's on you. There isn't much for us to discuss so I'd appreciate it if you stopped replying to me, so we don't just go around in circles.
      - bulbar 9mo ago
        That's a logical fallacy. That doesn't show that the poll is inaccurate. The average R voter can be dissatisfied with how it all turned out while the average reddit conservative R voter isn't.
0xffff2 9mo ago
I think modern polling is deeply flawed, but taking the sentiments of a particular subreddit as more representative of an entire political party than the polling is probably taking it too far.
- JCattheATM 9mo ago
  The polling is frequently wrong. I believe the subreddits (not just one) are mostly real people giving their views. They are not just random subs, they are the subs for those particular ideologies. They also match the opinions media pundits put out, and match various supporters appearing in other media, like the Jubilee Surrounded videos. On the balance of evidence available, it seems most people in that party is more for than against what has been going on.
  - estearum 9mo ago
    We've gotten to a dark place where someone doesn't just slip into an echo chamber by accident but actively chooses to believe that selectively sampled data sources are actually superior to sources that attempt randomization. There is no sane reason to think the subreddits nor Jubilee videos are actually representative, and certainly no reason to believe they are representative in contradiction to virtually every poll conducted in the past 12 months. "Prior polls are wrong" is a lazy man's way out. Polls actually have been way less wrong than people commonly meme about, and again there's no sane reason to say "sources that attempt randomization were wrong so therefore sources that actively bias their samples are probably better."
    - JCattheATM 9mo ago
      It's not a dark place to try and be objective and take data from multiple sources, and shame on you for trying to paint doing so as something negative. > There is no sane reason to think the subreddits nor Jubilee videos are actually representative, and certainly no reason to believe they are representative in contradiction to virtually every poll conducted in the past 12 months. It's not just those sources, it's basically every single source yo ucan fine with people giving an opinion. Every talk show (Fox/News Nation/ONE, etc), all the right aligned papers e.g. NY Post, WSJ, all the podcasters, all the influencers, and yes, whenever supporters are given a chance to speak, they overwhelming are pleased and support what is going on. At some point, ignoring all that and favoring purely a few polls is wilful ignorance, and I have to question the motive of anyone doing so. At a guess, I'd guess it's someone that voted conservative but doesn't want to be lumped in with 'the bad ones'.
nerdsniper 9mo ago
Both of those are heavily astroturfed / propagandized. Historically they often did reflect the views of supporters, because the subreddits mirror the talking points presented across all other conservative media - and most conservatives adopt their beliefs from those media sources. Thus, even though the voices you read on the subreddits are mostly "bots", they typically mirror the sentiment you'll hear from the actual people. However, this is not guaranteed to always be the case - and regardless, the voices on r/conservative and r/asktrumpsupporters are not necessarily actual real people's voices, even if they usually say similar things as real people. Yes, I recognize this has echoes of the "no true scotsman" fallacy, but it's just an accurate description of the system.
- JCattheATM 9mo ago
  > Both of those are heavily astroturfed / propagandized. I'm pretty skeptical of that, honestly. I think if we apply Occam, it's just that there are enough people that do feel like that. Look at some of the Jubilee 'Surrounded' videos to see that such people are not in short supply. There's not much financial motive in building up or buying accounts just for them to say they agree with what's going on - it doesn't help anyone in power right now. Anecdotal, but the users I check the profile history off seem legitimate posting across several different subs also.
  - direwolf20 9mo ago
    You can try an experiment for yourself. If you have a Reddit account, comment something on one of these subreddits that doesn't toe the party line. Wait less than 24 hours until your comment is removed and you are banned.
    - JCattheATM 9mo ago
      What do you think that proves, though? Yes, they don't let anti-conservative people comment in the sub, that doesn't mean the people that are posting are bots or paid.
      - 9mo ago
estearum 9mo ago
Nah, polling has been pretty good since everyone reset after 2016.
- JCattheATM 9mo ago
  You can certainly prioritize evidence as you like, but I explained why when balancing all available evidence, it seems supporters are fine with what is happening. They say as much unambiguously in multiple places across multiple venues. I'll take that over a poll anyday.
  - estearum 9mo ago
    Surely there are enough supporters to populate the message boards on which supporters congregate with messages of support. No doubt about that. If you think that gives you a read on the overall attitude, then unfortunately there's nothing I can say to help you. It is literally mathematically nonsensical to look at the numerator, put no effort into knowing the denominator, and then claim to have a sense for the ratio between them. It's shocking to see someone explicitly claim they can do this lmao.
    - JCattheATM 9mo ago
      I don't need help from you, thanks for the offer though, however misguided. Like I said, you're free to ignore all the datapoints that disagree with you and focus on the one that doesn't, if that makes you feel better. I don't think there's much for us to discuss, and instead of going back and forth ad nauseum I'd just really appreciate it if you stopped replying to me altogether.
      - bulbar 9mo ago
        So you have more data points? I am in fact interesting in them, I don't care too much who's in the right in this very discussion as this is all way too serious to be about who it being right. But from what I have read with 'data' you mean your general impression from subreddits? Or do you have more robust data? I can imagine a few affects that lead to the subreddit(s) evolve independent of the average opinion of R voters. It happens all the time with subreddits. But then again, maybe you got more information about it?

Isn't this the same problem of many people who feel otherwise not participating in polls? The conservative subreddit shows a very different story. I'm sure the asktrumpsupporters sub does also.

halfmatthalfcat 9mo ago

I would not be making generalizations on any group based on what spews out of Reddit.

JCattheATM 9mo ago
It's fair to judge a community by the average sentiment their members post.
- bulbar 9mo ago
  Begs the question if the conservative Reddit community really represents the average Republican voter. I don't think so.
  - JCattheATM 9mo ago
    The average republican voter voted for trump, so I do think so.
    - halfmatthalfcat 9mo ago
      They voted R, there's no way to make the distinction on why they voted.
      - JCattheATM 9mo ago
        Nonsense. A vote for R was a vote for T.
        estearum 9mo ago
        A vote for T is not a vote for every dimension of T. In fact, all the data shows that the economy was the absolute top issue by a huge margin. There's good reason to believe that not only would any Republican have gotten similar or better results, but that if it had been a Republican in power, that any Democrat would've gotten similar or better results. Incumbents got smacked (far harder than Trump v Harris) in every election in the world in 2024, which is concordant with a long history of incumbents getting smacked during periods of high inflation.
        JCattheATM 9mo ago
        > A vote for T is not a vote for every dimension of T. Does. Not. Matter. When you vote for T you know you are getting all of T. > In fact, all the data shows that the economy was the absolute top issue by a huge margin. Sure, and the poorly educated overwhelmingly chose to believe the lies they were told because they were attractive, and were taken advantage of. It doesn't matter. Lets say they were single issue voters on the economy, well, they still voted for T knowing all of what that entails.
        estearum 9mo ago
        Sure, I agree with all that? They're all morally culpable. That's totally irrelevant as to whether the current actions are actually popular.
        JCattheATM 9mo ago
        > Sure, I agree with all that? Then there was no sense in you pointing out that a vote for T is not a vote for every dimension of T, since pointing out the obvious and gets another answer pointing out the obvious in response. > That's totally irrelevant as to whether the current actions are actually popular. You've chosen to rely on a single poll that supports your contention that they aren't, when pretty much every single other source of info is contrary to that. You want to put all your faith in a poll, that's on you. There isn't much for us to discuss so I'd appreciate it if you stopped replying to me, so we don't just go around in circles.
    - bulbar 9mo ago
      That's a logical fallacy. That doesn't show that the poll is inaccurate. The average R voter can be dissatisfied with how it all turned out while the average reddit conservative R voter isn't.

0xffff2 9mo ago

I think modern polling is deeply flawed, but taking the sentiments of a particular subreddit as more representative of an entire political party than the polling is probably taking it too far.

JCattheATM 9mo ago
The polling is frequently wrong. I believe the subreddits (not just one) are mostly real people giving their views. They are not just random subs, they are the subs for those particular ideologies. They also match the opinions media pundits put out, and match various supporters appearing in other media, like the Jubilee Surrounded videos. On the balance of evidence available, it seems most people in that party is more for than against what has been going on.
- estearum 9mo ago
  We've gotten to a dark place where someone doesn't just slip into an echo chamber by accident but actively chooses to believe that selectively sampled data sources are actually superior to sources that attempt randomization. There is no sane reason to think the subreddits nor Jubilee videos are actually representative, and certainly no reason to believe they are representative in contradiction to virtually every poll conducted in the past 12 months. "Prior polls are wrong" is a lazy man's way out. Polls actually have been way less wrong than people commonly meme about, and again there's no sane reason to say "sources that attempt randomization were wrong so therefore sources that actively bias their samples are probably better."
  - JCattheATM 9mo ago
    It's not a dark place to try and be objective and take data from multiple sources, and shame on you for trying to paint doing so as something negative. > There is no sane reason to think the subreddits nor Jubilee videos are actually representative, and certainly no reason to believe they are representative in contradiction to virtually every poll conducted in the past 12 months. It's not just those sources, it's basically every single source yo ucan fine with people giving an opinion. Every talk show (Fox/News Nation/ONE, etc), all the right aligned papers e.g. NY Post, WSJ, all the podcasters, all the influencers, and yes, whenever supporters are given a chance to speak, they overwhelming are pleased and support what is going on. At some point, ignoring all that and favoring purely a few polls is wilful ignorance, and I have to question the motive of anyone doing so. At a guess, I'd guess it's someone that voted conservative but doesn't want to be lumped in with 'the bad ones'.

nerdsniper 9mo ago

Both of those are heavily astroturfed / propagandized. Historically they often did reflect the views of supporters, because the subreddits mirror the talking points presented across all other conservative media - and most conservatives adopt their beliefs from those media sources. Thus, even though the voices you read on the subreddits are mostly "bots", they typically mirror the sentiment you'll hear from the actual people. However, this is not guaranteed to always be the case - and regardless, the voices on r/conservative and r/asktrumpsupporters are not necessarily actual real people's voices, even if they usually say similar things as real people. Yes, I recognize this has echoes of the "no true scotsman" fallacy, but it's just an accurate description of the system.

JCattheATM 9mo ago
> Both of those are heavily astroturfed / propagandized. I'm pretty skeptical of that, honestly. I think if we apply Occam, it's just that there are enough people that do feel like that. Look at some of the Jubilee 'Surrounded' videos to see that such people are not in short supply. There's not much financial motive in building up or buying accounts just for them to say they agree with what's going on - it doesn't help anyone in power right now. Anecdotal, but the users I check the profile history off seem legitimate posting across several different subs also.
- direwolf20 9mo ago
  You can try an experiment for yourself. If you have a Reddit account, comment something on one of these subreddits that doesn't toe the party line. Wait less than 24 hours until your comment is removed and you are banned.
  - JCattheATM 9mo ago
    What do you think that proves, though? Yes, they don't let anti-conservative people comment in the sub, that doesn't mean the people that are posting are bots or paid.
    - 9mo ago

estearum 9mo ago

Nah, polling has been pretty good since everyone reset after 2016.

JCattheATM 9mo ago
You can certainly prioritize evidence as you like, but I explained why when balancing all available evidence, it seems supporters are fine with what is happening. They say as much unambiguously in multiple places across multiple venues. I'll take that over a poll anyday.
- estearum 9mo ago
  Surely there are enough supporters to populate the message boards on which supporters congregate with messages of support. No doubt about that. If you think that gives you a read on the overall attitude, then unfortunately there's nothing I can say to help you. It is literally mathematically nonsensical to look at the numerator, put no effort into knowing the denominator, and then claim to have a sense for the ratio between them. It's shocking to see someone explicitly claim they can do this lmao.
  - JCattheATM 9mo ago
    I don't need help from you, thanks for the offer though, however misguided. Like I said, you're free to ignore all the datapoints that disagree with you and focus on the one that doesn't, if that makes you feel better. I don't think there's much for us to discuss, and instead of going back and forth ad nauseum I'd just really appreciate it if you stopped replying to me altogether.
    - bulbar 9mo ago
      So you have more data points? I am in fact interesting in them, I don't care too much who's in the right in this very discussion as this is all way too serious to be about who it being right. But from what I have read with 'data' you mean your general impression from subreddits? Or do you have more robust data? I can imagine a few affects that lead to the subreddit(s) evolve independent of the average opinion of R voters. It happens all the time with subreddits. But then again, maybe you got more information about it?