10 ms·

> Given ICE's unpopularity Seems divided along party lines unfortunately. Plenty of people are proudly saying this is exactly what they voted for.

estearum 9mo ago
Nope. Trump is -13% on deportations according to YouGov before the Alex Pretti murder.
- JCattheATM 9mo ago
  Isn't this the same problem of many people who feel otherwise not participating in polls? The conservative subreddit shows a very different story. I'm sure the asktrumpsupporters sub does also.
  - halfmatthalfcat 9mo ago
    I would not be making generalizations on any group based on what spews out of Reddit.
    - JCattheATM 9mo ago
      It's fair to judge a community by the average sentiment their members post.
      - bulbar 9mo ago
        Begs the question if the conservative Reddit community really represents the average Republican voter. I don't think so.
        JCattheATM 9mo ago
        The average republican voter voted for trump, so I do think so.
        halfmatthalfcat 9mo ago
        They voted R, there's no way to make the distinction on why they voted.
        JCattheATM 9mo ago
        Nonsense. A vote for R was a vote for T.
        estearum 9mo ago
        A vote for T is not a vote for every dimension of T. In fact, all the data shows that the economy was the absolute top issue by a huge margin. There's good reason to believe that not only would any Republican have gotten similar or better results, but that if it had been a Republican in power, that any Democrat would've gotten similar or better results. Incumbents got smacked (far harder than Trump v Harris) in every election in the world in 2024, which is concordant with a long history of incumbents getting smacked during periods of high inflation.
        JCattheATM 9mo ago
        > A vote for T is not a vote for every dimension of T. Does. Not. Matter. When you vote for T you know you are getting all of T. > In fact, all the data shows that the economy was the absolute top issue by a huge margin. Sure, and the poorly educated overwhelmingly chose to believe the lies they were told because they were attractive, and were taken advantage of. It doesn't matter. Lets say they were single issue voters on the economy, well, they still voted for T knowing all of what that entails.
        estearum 9mo ago
        Sure, I agree with all that? They're all morally culpable. That's totally irrelevant as to whether the current actions are actually popular.
  - 0xffff2 9mo ago
    I think modern polling is deeply flawed, but taking the sentiments of a particular subreddit as more representative of an entire political party than the polling is probably taking it too far.
    - JCattheATM 9mo ago
      The polling is frequently wrong. I believe the subreddits (not just one) are mostly real people giving their views. They are not just random subs, they are the subs for those particular ideologies. They also match the opinions media pundits put out, and match various supporters appearing in other media, like the Jubilee Surrounded videos. On the balance of evidence available, it seems most people in that party is more for than against what has been going on.
      - estearum 9mo ago
        We've gotten to a dark place where someone doesn't just slip into an echo chamber by accident but actively chooses to believe that selectively sampled data sources are actually superior to sources that attempt randomization. There is no sane reason to think the subreddits nor Jubilee videos are actually representative, and certainly no reason to believe they are representative in contradiction to virtually every poll conducted in the past 12 months. "Prior polls are wrong" is a lazy man's way out. Polls actually have been way less wrong than people commonly meme about, and again there's no sane reason to say "sources that attempt randomization were wrong so therefore sources that actively bias their samples are probably better."
        JCattheATM 9mo ago
        It's not a dark place to try and be objective and take data from multiple sources, and shame on you for trying to paint doing so as something negative. > There is no sane reason to think the subreddits nor Jubilee videos are actually representative, and certainly no reason to believe they are representative in contradiction to virtually every poll conducted in the past 12 months. It's not just those sources, it's basically every single source yo ucan fine with people giving an opinion. Every talk show (Fox/News Nation/ONE, etc), all the right aligned papers e.g. NY Post, WSJ, all the podcasters, all the influencers, and yes, whenever supporters are given a chance to speak, they overwhelming are pleased and support what is going on. At some point, ignoring all that and favoring purely a few polls is wilful ignorance, and I have to question the motive of anyone doing so. At a guess, I'd guess it's someone that voted conservative but doesn't want to be lumped in with 'the bad ones'.
  - nerdsniper 9mo ago
    Both of those are heavily astroturfed / propagandized. Historically they often did reflect the views of supporters, because the subreddits mirror the talking points presented across all other conservative media - and most conservatives adopt their beliefs from those media sources. Thus, even though the voices you read on the subreddits are mostly "bots", they typically mirror the sentiment you'll hear from the actual people. However, this is not guaranteed to always be the case - and regardless, the voices on r/conservative and r/asktrumpsupporters are not necessarily actual real people's voices, even if they usually say similar things as real people. Yes, I recognize this has echoes of the "no true scotsman" fallacy, but it's just an accurate description of the system.
    - JCattheATM 9mo ago
      > Both of those are heavily astroturfed / propagandized. I'm pretty skeptical of that, honestly. I think if we apply Occam, it's just that there are enough people that do feel like that. Look at some of the Jubilee 'Surrounded' videos to see that such people are not in short supply. There's not much financial motive in building up or buying accounts just for them to say they agree with what's going on - it doesn't help anyone in power right now. Anecdotal, but the users I check the profile history off seem legitimate posting across several different subs also.
      - direwolf20 9mo ago
        You can try an experiment for yourself. If you have a Reddit account, comment something on one of these subreddits that doesn't toe the party line. Wait less than 24 hours until your comment is removed and you are banned.
        JCattheATM 9mo ago
        What do you think that proves, though? Yes, they don't let anti-conservative people comment in the sub, that doesn't mean the people that are posting are bots or paid.
        9mo ago
  - estearum 9mo ago
    Nah, polling has been pretty good since everyone reset after 2016.
    - JCattheATM 9mo ago
      You can certainly prioritize evidence as you like, but I explained why when balancing all available evidence, it seems supporters are fine with what is happening. They say as much unambiguously in multiple places across multiple venues. I'll take that over a poll anyday.
      - estearum 9mo ago
        Surely there are enough supporters to populate the message boards on which supporters congregate with messages of support. No doubt about that. If you think that gives you a read on the overall attitude, then unfortunately there's nothing I can say to help you. It is literally mathematically nonsensical to look at the numerator, put no effort into knowing the denominator, and then claim to have a sense for the ratio between them. It's shocking to see someone explicitly claim they can do this lmao.
        JCattheATM 9mo ago
        I don't need help from you, thanks for the offer though, however misguided. Like I said, you're free to ignore all the datapoints that disagree with you and focus on the one that doesn't, if that makes you feel better. I don't think there's much for us to discuss, and instead of going back and forth ad nauseum I'd just really appreciate it if you stopped replying to me altogether.
        bulbar 9mo ago
        So you have more data points? I am in fact interesting in them, I don't care too much who's in the right in this very discussion as this is all way too serious to be about who it being right. But from what I have read with 'data' you mean your general impression from subreddits? Or do you have more robust data? I can imagine a few affects that lead to the subreddit(s) evolve independent of the average opinion of R voters. It happens all the time with subreddits. But then again, maybe you got more information about it?
- dmitrygr 9mo ago
  Given that one half of this country openly states that it is OK to not provide medical care to anyone from the other political side [1] [2], I would not trust any polls. Many people would be unwilling to draw a target on their families' backs just to help some pollster. [1] https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-news/who-is-erik-martindale-florida-nurse-refuses-to-treat-maga-supporters-faces-backlash-and-calls-for-suspension-101769444699013.html https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-news/who-is-eri... [2] https://www.facebook.com/pix11news/posts/a-union-says-an-nypd-officer-was-turned-away-from-an-nyc-hospital-after-being-mi/1427154702332144/ https://www.facebook.com/pix11news/posts/a-union-says-an-nyp...
  - estearum 9mo ago
    Where is the data on "half the country openly stating..."? Did you make that up?
dragonwriter 9mo ago
> > Given ICE's unpopularity > Seems divided along party lines unfortunately. Is there a partisan split? Very much. Is ICE deeply unpopular? Also very much. Net support (% support minus % oppose) for abolishing ICE is at +5 overall; +61 with Democrats, +12 with independents, and -54 with Republicans. Net approval of ICE is at -22 overall; -81 with Democrats, -39 with independents, and +60 with Republicans. https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/53939-more-americans-support-than-oppose-abolishing-ice-immigration-minneapolis-shooting-poll https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/53939-more-americ...
- JCattheATM 9mo ago
  If ICE were as unpopular as you say with conservatives, they would not have been defending both murders with such passion. I guess this is the difference in listening to the 'streets' vs a carefully sampled poll.
  - dragonwriter 9mo ago
    Where did I say anything about ICE being unpopular with conservatives?
    - JCattheATM 9mo ago
      You didn't, sorry. Had the discussion with the other guy in the thread in mind trying to argue that's the case.
      - estearum 9mo ago
        Lol, if you think that's what our discussion was about, you are deeply confused.
        JCattheATM 9mo ago
        I'm not, you're just deeply biased and defensive.

estearum 9mo ago

Nope. Trump is -13% on deportations according to YouGov before the Alex Pretti murder.

JCattheATM 9mo ago
Isn't this the same problem of many people who feel otherwise not participating in polls? The conservative subreddit shows a very different story. I'm sure the asktrumpsupporters sub does also.
- halfmatthalfcat 9mo ago
  I would not be making generalizations on any group based on what spews out of Reddit.
  - JCattheATM 9mo ago
    It's fair to judge a community by the average sentiment their members post.
    - bulbar 9mo ago
      Begs the question if the conservative Reddit community really represents the average Republican voter. I don't think so.
      - JCattheATM 9mo ago
        The average republican voter voted for trump, so I do think so.
        halfmatthalfcat 9mo ago
        They voted R, there's no way to make the distinction on why they voted.
        JCattheATM 9mo ago
        Nonsense. A vote for R was a vote for T.
        estearum 9mo ago
        A vote for T is not a vote for every dimension of T. In fact, all the data shows that the economy was the absolute top issue by a huge margin. There's good reason to believe that not only would any Republican have gotten similar or better results, but that if it had been a Republican in power, that any Democrat would've gotten similar or better results. Incumbents got smacked (far harder than Trump v Harris) in every election in the world in 2024, which is concordant with a long history of incumbents getting smacked during periods of high inflation.
        JCattheATM 9mo ago
        > A vote for T is not a vote for every dimension of T. Does. Not. Matter. When you vote for T you know you are getting all of T. > In fact, all the data shows that the economy was the absolute top issue by a huge margin. Sure, and the poorly educated overwhelmingly chose to believe the lies they were told because they were attractive, and were taken advantage of. It doesn't matter. Lets say they were single issue voters on the economy, well, they still voted for T knowing all of what that entails.
        estearum 9mo ago
        Sure, I agree with all that? They're all morally culpable. That's totally irrelevant as to whether the current actions are actually popular.
- 0xffff2 9mo ago
  I think modern polling is deeply flawed, but taking the sentiments of a particular subreddit as more representative of an entire political party than the polling is probably taking it too far.
  - JCattheATM 9mo ago
    The polling is frequently wrong. I believe the subreddits (not just one) are mostly real people giving their views. They are not just random subs, they are the subs for those particular ideologies. They also match the opinions media pundits put out, and match various supporters appearing in other media, like the Jubilee Surrounded videos. On the balance of evidence available, it seems most people in that party is more for than against what has been going on.
    - estearum 9mo ago
      We've gotten to a dark place where someone doesn't just slip into an echo chamber by accident but actively chooses to believe that selectively sampled data sources are actually superior to sources that attempt randomization. There is no sane reason to think the subreddits nor Jubilee videos are actually representative, and certainly no reason to believe they are representative in contradiction to virtually every poll conducted in the past 12 months. "Prior polls are wrong" is a lazy man's way out. Polls actually have been way less wrong than people commonly meme about, and again there's no sane reason to say "sources that attempt randomization were wrong so therefore sources that actively bias their samples are probably better."
      - JCattheATM 9mo ago
        It's not a dark place to try and be objective and take data from multiple sources, and shame on you for trying to paint doing so as something negative. > There is no sane reason to think the subreddits nor Jubilee videos are actually representative, and certainly no reason to believe they are representative in contradiction to virtually every poll conducted in the past 12 months. It's not just those sources, it's basically every single source yo ucan fine with people giving an opinion. Every talk show (Fox/News Nation/ONE, etc), all the right aligned papers e.g. NY Post, WSJ, all the podcasters, all the influencers, and yes, whenever supporters are given a chance to speak, they overwhelming are pleased and support what is going on. At some point, ignoring all that and favoring purely a few polls is wilful ignorance, and I have to question the motive of anyone doing so. At a guess, I'd guess it's someone that voted conservative but doesn't want to be lumped in with 'the bad ones'.
- nerdsniper 9mo ago
  Both of those are heavily astroturfed / propagandized. Historically they often did reflect the views of supporters, because the subreddits mirror the talking points presented across all other conservative media - and most conservatives adopt their beliefs from those media sources. Thus, even though the voices you read on the subreddits are mostly "bots", they typically mirror the sentiment you'll hear from the actual people. However, this is not guaranteed to always be the case - and regardless, the voices on r/conservative and r/asktrumpsupporters are not necessarily actual real people's voices, even if they usually say similar things as real people. Yes, I recognize this has echoes of the "no true scotsman" fallacy, but it's just an accurate description of the system.
  - JCattheATM 9mo ago
    > Both of those are heavily astroturfed / propagandized. I'm pretty skeptical of that, honestly. I think if we apply Occam, it's just that there are enough people that do feel like that. Look at some of the Jubilee 'Surrounded' videos to see that such people are not in short supply. There's not much financial motive in building up or buying accounts just for them to say they agree with what's going on - it doesn't help anyone in power right now. Anecdotal, but the users I check the profile history off seem legitimate posting across several different subs also.
    - direwolf20 9mo ago
      You can try an experiment for yourself. If you have a Reddit account, comment something on one of these subreddits that doesn't toe the party line. Wait less than 24 hours until your comment is removed and you are banned.
      - JCattheATM 9mo ago
        What do you think that proves, though? Yes, they don't let anti-conservative people comment in the sub, that doesn't mean the people that are posting are bots or paid.
        9mo ago
- estearum 9mo ago
  Nah, polling has been pretty good since everyone reset after 2016.
  - JCattheATM 9mo ago
    You can certainly prioritize evidence as you like, but I explained why when balancing all available evidence, it seems supporters are fine with what is happening. They say as much unambiguously in multiple places across multiple venues. I'll take that over a poll anyday.
    - estearum 9mo ago
      Surely there are enough supporters to populate the message boards on which supporters congregate with messages of support. No doubt about that. If you think that gives you a read on the overall attitude, then unfortunately there's nothing I can say to help you. It is literally mathematically nonsensical to look at the numerator, put no effort into knowing the denominator, and then claim to have a sense for the ratio between them. It's shocking to see someone explicitly claim they can do this lmao.
      - JCattheATM 9mo ago
        I don't need help from you, thanks for the offer though, however misguided. Like I said, you're free to ignore all the datapoints that disagree with you and focus on the one that doesn't, if that makes you feel better. I don't think there's much for us to discuss, and instead of going back and forth ad nauseum I'd just really appreciate it if you stopped replying to me altogether.
        bulbar 9mo ago
        So you have more data points? I am in fact interesting in them, I don't care too much who's in the right in this very discussion as this is all way too serious to be about who it being right. But from what I have read with 'data' you mean your general impression from subreddits? Or do you have more robust data? I can imagine a few affects that lead to the subreddit(s) evolve independent of the average opinion of R voters. It happens all the time with subreddits. But then again, maybe you got more information about it?
dmitrygr 9mo ago
Given that one half of this country openly states that it is OK to not provide medical care to anyone from the other political side [1] [2], I would not trust any polls. Many people would be unwilling to draw a target on their families' backs just to help some pollster. [1] https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-news/who-is-erik-martindale-florida-nurse-refuses-to-treat-maga-supporters-faces-backlash-and-calls-for-suspension-101769444699013.html https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-news/who-is-eri... [2] https://www.facebook.com/pix11news/posts/a-union-says-an-nypd-officer-was-turned-away-from-an-nyc-hospital-after-being-mi/1427154702332144/ https://www.facebook.com/pix11news/posts/a-union-says-an-nyp...
- estearum 9mo ago
  Where is the data on "half the country openly stating..."? Did you make that up?

dragonwriter 9mo ago

> > Given ICE's unpopularity > Seems divided along party lines unfortunately. Is there a partisan split? Very much. Is ICE deeply unpopular? Also very much. Net support (% support minus % oppose) for abolishing ICE is at +5 overall; +61 with Democrats, +12 with independents, and -54 with Republicans. Net approval of ICE is at -22 overall; -81 with Democrats, -39 with independents, and +60 with Republicans. https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/53939-more-americans-support-than-oppose-abolishing-ice-immigration-minneapolis-shooting-poll https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/53939-more-americ...

JCattheATM 9mo ago
If ICE were as unpopular as you say with conservatives, they would not have been defending both murders with such passion. I guess this is the difference in listening to the 'streets' vs a carefully sampled poll.
- dragonwriter 9mo ago
  Where did I say anything about ICE being unpopular with conservatives?
  - JCattheATM 9mo ago
    You didn't, sorry. Had the discussion with the other guy in the thread in mind trying to argue that's the case.
    - estearum 9mo ago
      Lol, if you think that's what our discussion was about, you are deeply confused.
      - JCattheATM 9mo ago
        I'm not, you're just deeply biased and defensive.