4 ms·

Because Kessler syndrome means you don't need to hit all 10k yourself. Lowering the orbits just means that we get back to normal faster, not that the it's impo

by TOMDM 9mo ago

Because Kessler syndrome means you don't need to hit all 10k yourself. Lowering the orbits just means that we get back to normal faster, not that the it's impossible.

lijok 9mo ago
Does Kessler syndrome also mean ICBMs become nonviable?
- Dylan16807 9mo ago
  No. It's not a wall. The risk from going through a dangerous orbit is much much less than the risk from staying there.
  - goku12 9mo ago
    That depends on how you define risk. If it means the probability of a collision, then you'd be correct. But if a collision does happen, the consequences will be worse than being in the same orbit. Based on an oversimplified model, debris in orbit is likely to have low relative velocities with respect to an intact satellite in the same orbit, since a large deltav would change the orbit. (It's not as simple as this, but it's good enough in practice.) This is actually what asat weapons take advantage of. They usually don't even reach orbital velocity, just like ballistic missiles (of course, there are exceptions like the golden dome monstrosity). The kill vehicle just maneuvers itself into the path of the satellite and lets the satellite plough into it at hypervelocity.
- gpderetta 9mo ago
  I remember a short story about Canada preventing total global annihilation in WWIII, by deliberately triggering Kessler syndrome. My google-fu is failing me though.
  - iberator 9mo ago
    I would love to read it:)
NetMageSCW 9mo ago
Stop trying to make Kessler syndrome a thing. Kessler syndrome isn’t a thing, and it will never be a thing. PS The original paper expects the cascade to take decades to centuries. No one can afford to shoot down Starlink except SpaceX.
- pixelpoet 9mo ago
  Stop trying to boss people around, and just make your point with some citations.
  - abdusco 9mo ago
    It's a reference to the "stop trying to make fetch happen" meme from the movie Mean Girls.
    - pixelpoet 9mo ago
      Ah, so I should have replied with "Yeahhh bitch, science!", because that's a reference to the Breaking Bad meme? That's how we're discussing things now?
JumpCrisscross 9mo ago
> Kessler syndrome means you don't need to hit all 10k yourself Kessler is useless for LEO constellations. The timeframes of the cascades exceed the useful lives and dwelling times at those altitudes. I am not aware of a military solution to prompting a cascade over even a limited area. Instead, you’d use repeated high-atmosphere nuclear detonations to fry birds in a region.

by TOMDM 9mo ago

Because Kessler syndrome means you don't need to hit all 10k yourself. Lowering the orbits just means that we get back to normal faster, not that the it's impossible.

lijok 9mo ago

Does Kessler syndrome also mean ICBMs become nonviable?

Dylan16807 9mo ago
No. It's not a wall. The risk from going through a dangerous orbit is much much less than the risk from staying there.
- goku12 9mo ago
  That depends on how you define risk. If it means the probability of a collision, then you'd be correct. But if a collision does happen, the consequences will be worse than being in the same orbit. Based on an oversimplified model, debris in orbit is likely to have low relative velocities with respect to an intact satellite in the same orbit, since a large deltav would change the orbit. (It's not as simple as this, but it's good enough in practice.) This is actually what asat weapons take advantage of. They usually don't even reach orbital velocity, just like ballistic missiles (of course, there are exceptions like the golden dome monstrosity). The kill vehicle just maneuvers itself into the path of the satellite and lets the satellite plough into it at hypervelocity.
gpderetta 9mo ago
I remember a short story about Canada preventing total global annihilation in WWIII, by deliberately triggering Kessler syndrome. My google-fu is failing me though.
- iberator 9mo ago
  I would love to read it:)

NetMageSCW 9mo ago

Stop trying to make Kessler syndrome a thing. Kessler syndrome isn’t a thing, and it will never be a thing. PS The original paper expects the cascade to take decades to centuries. No one can afford to shoot down Starlink except SpaceX.

pixelpoet 9mo ago
Stop trying to boss people around, and just make your point with some citations.
- abdusco 9mo ago
  It's a reference to the "stop trying to make fetch happen" meme from the movie Mean Girls.
  - pixelpoet 9mo ago
    Ah, so I should have replied with "Yeahhh bitch, science!", because that's a reference to the Breaking Bad meme? That's how we're discussing things now?

JumpCrisscross 9mo ago

> Kessler syndrome means you don't need to hit all 10k yourself Kessler is useless for LEO constellations. The timeframes of the cascades exceed the useful lives and dwelling times at those altitudes. I am not aware of a military solution to prompting a cascade over even a limited area. Instead, you’d use repeated high-atmosphere nuclear detonations to fry birds in a region.