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The U.S. is as stable as it gets. It has been one continuous republic and has 250 years of legal stability and a history of paying its debts. It has 4.2% GDP gr

The U.S. is as stable as it gets. It has been one continuous republic and has 250 years of legal stability and a history of paying its debts. It has 4.2% GDP growth, with the largest economy in the world and growing.

Spooky23 9mo ago
"Faith and credit" means trust, and there's an elephant in the room impacting trust. Worse, what comes next?
RealityVoid 9mo ago
> The U.S. is as stable as it gets Past returns are not indicative of future performance
throwaway888666 9mo ago
I am pretty sure the US has not 4.2 percent growth Source? I live in the US and I have lived in countries with 4-5 gdp growth
- deleted 9mo ago
  [deleted]
- mschuster91 9mo ago
  They are likely referring to Q3/25 numbers [1]. The problem is the AI bubble, without it it is speculated that the US economy might actually be in a recession [2] - effectively, that web of investments, deals, ownerships, purchase contracts and god knows what is nothing more than wash trading that will come crashing down hard. That is why for the 99%, the economy doesn't "feel" like 4.3% of growth. If you're not in AI directly or at least adjacent (e.g. datacenter or utility construction), you don't feel any of that money. [1] https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/ai-infrastructure-boom-masks-potential-us-recession-analyst-warns.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/ai-infrastructure-boom-masks...
  - deleted 9mo ago
    [deleted]
- missedthecue 9mo ago
  The latest US GDP print is the Q3 2025 Initial Estimate, showing real GDP grew at a 4.3% annual rate https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/us-economy-grew-third-quarter-rcna250644 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/us-economy-grew-thi...
  - dukeyukey 9mo ago
    That is an annualised figure, which means they took the Q3 figure by itself and multiplied it by 4. US annualised growth in Q1 would've been -2%. Between Q1/2/3, US growth has been about 1.6%. Wait until the whole year figures come out.
    - jacquesm 9mo ago
      And you have to wonder: if they do come out, are they truthful or are they fabricated.
    - WarmWash 9mo ago
      Holiday spending was up 6.8% YoY and the highest spending on record. About 67% of GDP comes from consumer spending. It's very unlikely the US doesn't have strong GDP numbers for 2025. K-shaped economy and all that
DowsingSpoon 9mo ago
There more to stability than continuity of government. Though, that definitely is important. It’s bad enough that America’s foreign policy lately swings wildly every four years. More recently, it’s been acting aggressive toward allies, and making very strange and unpredictable moves. The USA’s tariff policies are, frankly, utterly insane. Yes, I do mean the tariffs are irrational and incoherent. The approach to the tariffs has been overly aggressive. They’ve been changing almost daily, at times. Now, tariffs are specifically a thing that must be stable and predictable on a multi-year horizon. This must be, at least, off-putting to other governments, and to any companies wishing to do business in or adjacent to the USA. Monkeying with the Fed is dangerous and basically unprecedented. This is going to make people nervous because it marks the end of an era of stability in monetary policy. We may be at the start of a new era where interest rates, much like the tariffs, change frequently for bad reasons or for no reason at all. Who can say? And THAT is the problem.
- nubg 9mo ago
  Why is this getting downvoted? Everything said here is true.
  - tmountain 9mo ago
    Because the propaganda apparatus is out of control.
pbhjpbhj 9mo ago
Your ruler is no longer following the rules of law, nor the foundational constitution. USA ended with their declaration of dictatorship and the failure of your houses/legislature/military to act against that and defend the Constitution. I can't see how, since the end of habeas corpus, you can claim legal stability. Your leader is World renowned for reneging on debts and is demanding bribes for companies to operate. Isn't borrowing through the roof to pay for things like your stasi? Daily those stasi are murdering and disappearing people seemingly attempting to foment an excuse to escalate the violence. I don't know how that knife edge can look anything like stable to you.
- nubg 9mo ago
  Why is this getting downvoted?
  - RealityVoid 9mo ago
    My money is that influence campaigns are active on HN and try to mold the discourse. The whole internet is manipulated to hell, and HN is a prime target, you have a bunch of smart people that probably have oversized influence, how could you NOT try manipulating this place?
    - microtonal 9mo ago
      This is most certainly happening. A lot of US-critical articles also get flagged to death, even when they have a lot of upvotes and healthy, civilized discussion.
    - ahmeneeroe-v2 9mo ago
      Yes to manipulation. But also it asserts factually a lot that isn't true, which is why I downvoted.
  - jacquesm 9mo ago
    Because it makes people uncomfortable.
  - 9mo ago
tmountain 9mo ago
The U.S. chose to abandon the rules based international order that has made it a bastion of stability since WW2 when they decided they wanted a return to the monroe doctrine and that it was okay to arbitrarily invade countries and take their resources based on the impulses of a single person. The same person outwardly stated, "Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace". If you think this is "as stable as it gets", then we're living on different planets.
kmeisthax 9mo ago
> 250 years of legal stability America was never a stable country. That 250 years includes: * A decade of chaos under the impotent Articles of Confederation. * The deliberately engineered election of George Washington to create the illusion of political stability, a reign which only ended because George stepped down voluntarily. * An immediate constitutional crisis the moment a competitive election happened, causing the election of a President and Vice President from opposing political parties (imagine a Harris - Trump presidency). The ensuing chaos resulted in SCOTUS unilaterally declaring itself the final arbiter of the law. * The Thomas Jefferson presidency, which in many ways is the alpha release of Trump. * The Civil War, started specifically because the losing faction of slaveholders was angry at losing, and ending with the losing faction losing so hard the counter rolled back into flawless victory. They surrendered, then assassinated the President and got his party to give up on everything he stood for. * Economy-destroying Smoot-Hawley tariffs, which are basically what Trump is doing now. * A spectacular near-miss in which the country's business elites attempted to assassinate a Progressive president and only failed because the Marine they selected as their Hitleresque dictator ratted them out. * Widespread civil unrest deliberately created to force America to reckon with its racist past and undo what the South had managed to convince the North to allow them to do after Reconstruction. * The Richard Nixon presidency, which in many ways is the beta release of Trump. * Too many foreign invasions to count. In the entire history of America I can think of maybe 3 brief moments of political stability that weren't outright engineered fantasies. The two that are relevant to modern times are the 1950s and the 1990s. Both of these were the result of America winning a war of conquest.
- pizlonator 9mo ago
  That's not as bad as what a lot of nations have dealt with Consider the turbulence that China experienced over the same 250 years, for example
- ahmeneeroe-v2 9mo ago
  Really love this, seriously great analysis (even though I'd quibble on a few points). Stability is a relative thing though. It's hard to judge this except in relation to what other countries were doing. >Various Euro nations Suicided in 1900s and destroyed everything they built >China Collapse, civil war, famine, poverty *pretty good for ~30 years

Spooky23 9mo ago

"Faith and credit" means trust, and there's an elephant in the room impacting trust. Worse, what comes next?

RealityVoid 9mo ago

> The U.S. is as stable as it gets Past returns are not indicative of future performance

throwaway888666 9mo ago

I am pretty sure the US has not 4.2 percent growth Source? I live in the US and I have lived in countries with 4-5 gdp growth

deleted 9mo ago
[deleted]
mschuster91 9mo ago
They are likely referring to Q3/25 numbers [1]. The problem is the AI bubble, without it it is speculated that the US economy might actually be in a recession [2] - effectively, that web of investments, deals, ownerships, purchase contracts and god knows what is nothing more than wash trading that will come crashing down hard. That is why for the 99%, the economy doesn't "feel" like 4.3% of growth. If you're not in AI directly or at least adjacent (e.g. datacenter or utility construction), you don't feel any of that money. [1] https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/ai-infrastructure-boom-masks-potential-us-recession-analyst-warns.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/ai-infrastructure-boom-masks...
- deleted 9mo ago
  [deleted]
missedthecue 9mo ago
The latest US GDP print is the Q3 2025 Initial Estimate, showing real GDP grew at a 4.3% annual rate https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/us-economy-grew-third-quarter-rcna250644 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/us-economy-grew-thi...
- dukeyukey 9mo ago
  That is an annualised figure, which means they took the Q3 figure by itself and multiplied it by 4. US annualised growth in Q1 would've been -2%. Between Q1/2/3, US growth has been about 1.6%. Wait until the whole year figures come out.
  - jacquesm 9mo ago
    And you have to wonder: if they do come out, are they truthful or are they fabricated.
  - WarmWash 9mo ago
    Holiday spending was up 6.8% YoY and the highest spending on record. About 67% of GDP comes from consumer spending. It's very unlikely the US doesn't have strong GDP numbers for 2025. K-shaped economy and all that

DowsingSpoon 9mo ago

There more to stability than continuity of government. Though, that definitely is important. It’s bad enough that America’s foreign policy lately swings wildly every four years. More recently, it’s been acting aggressive toward allies, and making very strange and unpredictable moves. The USA’s tariff policies are, frankly, utterly insane. Yes, I do mean the tariffs are irrational and incoherent. The approach to the tariffs has been overly aggressive. They’ve been changing almost daily, at times. Now, tariffs are specifically a thing that must be stable and predictable on a multi-year horizon. This must be, at least, off-putting to other governments, and to any companies wishing to do business in or adjacent to the USA. Monkeying with the Fed is dangerous and basically unprecedented. This is going to make people nervous because it marks the end of an era of stability in monetary policy. We may be at the start of a new era where interest rates, much like the tariffs, change frequently for bad reasons or for no reason at all. Who can say? And THAT is the problem.

nubg 9mo ago
Why is this getting downvoted? Everything said here is true.
- tmountain 9mo ago
  Because the propaganda apparatus is out of control.

pbhjpbhj 9mo ago

Your ruler is no longer following the rules of law, nor the foundational constitution. USA ended with their declaration of dictatorship and the failure of your houses/legislature/military to act against that and defend the Constitution. I can't see how, since the end of habeas corpus, you can claim legal stability. Your leader is World renowned for reneging on debts and is demanding bribes for companies to operate. Isn't borrowing through the roof to pay for things like your stasi? Daily those stasi are murdering and disappearing people seemingly attempting to foment an excuse to escalate the violence. I don't know how that knife edge can look anything like stable to you.

nubg 9mo ago
Why is this getting downvoted?
- RealityVoid 9mo ago
  My money is that influence campaigns are active on HN and try to mold the discourse. The whole internet is manipulated to hell, and HN is a prime target, you have a bunch of smart people that probably have oversized influence, how could you NOT try manipulating this place?
  - microtonal 9mo ago
    This is most certainly happening. A lot of US-critical articles also get flagged to death, even when they have a lot of upvotes and healthy, civilized discussion.
  - ahmeneeroe-v2 9mo ago
    Yes to manipulation. But also it asserts factually a lot that isn't true, which is why I downvoted.
- jacquesm 9mo ago
  Because it makes people uncomfortable.
- 9mo ago

tmountain 9mo ago

The U.S. chose to abandon the rules based international order that has made it a bastion of stability since WW2 when they decided they wanted a return to the monroe doctrine and that it was okay to arbitrarily invade countries and take their resources based on the impulses of a single person. The same person outwardly stated, "Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace". If you think this is "as stable as it gets", then we're living on different planets.

kmeisthax 9mo ago

> 250 years of legal stability America was never a stable country. That 250 years includes: * A decade of chaos under the impotent Articles of Confederation. * The deliberately engineered election of George Washington to create the illusion of political stability, a reign which only ended because George stepped down voluntarily. * An immediate constitutional crisis the moment a competitive election happened, causing the election of a President and Vice President from opposing political parties (imagine a Harris - Trump presidency). The ensuing chaos resulted in SCOTUS unilaterally declaring itself the final arbiter of the law. * The Thomas Jefferson presidency, which in many ways is the alpha release of Trump. * The Civil War, started specifically because the losing faction of slaveholders was angry at losing, and ending with the losing faction losing so hard the counter rolled back into flawless victory. They surrendered, then assassinated the President and got his party to give up on everything he stood for. * Economy-destroying Smoot-Hawley tariffs, which are basically what Trump is doing now. * A spectacular near-miss in which the country's business elites attempted to assassinate a Progressive president and only failed because the Marine they selected as their Hitleresque dictator ratted them out. * Widespread civil unrest deliberately created to force America to reckon with its racist past and undo what the South had managed to convince the North to allow them to do after Reconstruction. * The Richard Nixon presidency, which in many ways is the beta release of Trump. * Too many foreign invasions to count. In the entire history of America I can think of maybe 3 brief moments of political stability that weren't outright engineered fantasies. The two that are relevant to modern times are the 1950s and the 1990s. Both of these were the result of America winning a war of conquest.

pizlonator 9mo ago
That's not as bad as what a lot of nations have dealt with Consider the turbulence that China experienced over the same 250 years, for example
ahmeneeroe-v2 9mo ago
Really love this, seriously great analysis (even though I'd quibble on a few points). Stability is a relative thing though. It's hard to judge this except in relation to what other countries were doing. >Various Euro nations Suicided in 1900s and destroyed everything they built >China Collapse, civil war, famine, poverty *pretty good for ~30 years