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Honest question: isn't it just a matter of time before US dollar loses its dominance, given that US has been losing its manufacturing business? I mean, can peop

Honest question: isn't it just a matter of time before US dollar loses its dominance, given that US has been losing its manufacturing business? I mean, can people really keep investing in the US market if they need less and less stuff produced by the US?

stickfigure 9mo ago
Why is manufacturing so special? As opposed to something like software? Also, manufacturing in the US is growing not shrinking. For a long time.
- marcosdumay 9mo ago
  > Also, manufacturing in the US is growing not shrinking. For a long time. Well, at least up to 2024... I think when people run the next number, there will be a surprise there.
- pessimizer 9mo ago
  Software can leave your country in a fraction of a second. Manufacturing is infrastructure. This is also basic. Manufacturing in the US is shrinking, comparatively with other countries that actually make things. People just think they can just play with numbers, categories and dollar values to hide it. The US has been playing a currency game since 1980 to make up for the loss of the free money it got for reconstructing Europe and Japan, and using that money to buy things from impoverished workers in China. And as China got on its feet through careful planning and management, it moved to India, Pakistan, Mexico, Indonesia, the Philippines, anywhere that was willing to stomp on its workers and pollute its air and water. Now China has gotten to the point that it is a viable alternative to the US, so the US can't unilaterally set terms anymore for its suppliers. It's dumping US treasuries. It's competing for natural resources in countries that the US just tried to topple and steal their natural resources through sieges that ironically served to cut the US's legs from under them, giving China a huge discount. The game is up. China going from nowhere to the greatest economy on the planet in 50 years is what happens when you manage and cultivate manufacturing. US real estate and an economy run on luxury consumption is what you get when you outsource manufacturing and play word games to cover it up. We literally can't tariff China significantly, they could crush our economy just by embargoing us like we freely embargo everyone else. That's the power of a manufacturing base. We might want to fix our bridges, too.
  - hintymad 9mo ago
    Case in point, it's news that Canada leaned toward partnering with China when having dispute with the US, but it would be a joke 20 years ago. It's a humiliation that the US brought upon itself: you can't produce things that people need, then don't blame that people will have leverage in other places.
- kagakuninja 9mo ago
  If The US goes to war against China, we are screwed, because we outsourced our manufacturing to China. We cannot quickly ramp up our manufacture of ships, tanks, aircraft or ammunition. Not only do we lack manufacturing capacity, the entire supply chain is in China / Asia. In addition, China leads in the critical technologies need for drone oriented warfare, like we are seeing in Ukraine.
  - hintymad 9mo ago
    In particular, the pentagon has so many suppliers in China. Oh, the KPIs (key pharmaceutical ingredients) are produced by China too. We even had shortage of saline solution when China was having a supply crunch. So when a conflict, let alone a war, broke out with China, what do we do? We ask China to supply us the war logistics? A fun story, China has the best automated seafood processing factories that meet all kinds of regulations in the world. It's cheaper, a lot cheaper, for Japan and Alaska to send their seafood to China to process, and then sell back to the domestic market. And it has nothing to do with cheap labor but deep R&D of China. So, when war broke out, many people won't be able to enjoy cheap seafood either. I don't understand how people can ignore a simple fact (is it Milton who pointed that out?): Manufacturing is a "doing" business, not a "knowing" business. Our expertise is forged on the shop floor, not dreamed up in a boardroom, and certainly not bought through outsourcing. There is so much tacit knowledge that manufacturing capability is a living system. It lives in the collective experience of the workforce and the rhythm of the line, not in static documents. Oh maybe this is the time to quota Thomas Joseph Dunning: With adequate profit, capital is very bold. A certain 10 per cent. will ensure its employment anywhere; 20 per cent. certain will produce eagerness; 50 per cent., positive audacity; 100 per cent. will make it ready to trample on all human laws; 300 per cent., and there is not a crime at which it will scruple, nor a risk it will not run, even to the chance of its owner being hanged.
- hintymad 9mo ago
  > Why is manufacturing so special? As opposed to something like software? I assume that dollar will be strong if people want to buy stuff from the US, which requires using the US currency. Software indeed is a strong sector. I'm just not sure (as due to my ignorance) if they compensate sufficiently the trade deficit. For instance, if advertisers use Instagram in Europe, they wouldn't need the US dollar to pay for the service, right? If there's no virtual export happens, I'd assume there won't be any need for the US currency either. > Also, manufacturing in the US is growing not shrinking. For a long time. What about market share? I remember that the US had more than 65% of the manufacturing marketshare 25 years ago. Actually, I'm more concerned about the long-term national security and prosperity of the US, and I think they are tied to a robust manufacturing sector. But that's different topic.
wvenable 9mo ago
A weak dollar is good for manufacturing and a strong dollar is bad for it. China tightly controls to the Yuan to purposely keep it's value low to benefit it's manufacturing. The current US administration wants to something similar for the US to boost manufacturing. I think that's foolish and backwards thinking. The US doesn't really need more manufacturing; it had relatively low unemployment, a healthy economy, etc. The US is a service country. Apple is one of the richest companies in the world and does none of it's manufacturing in the US. Why wouldn't people invest in Apple?
- hintymad 9mo ago
  This too. Many people argue that if we weaken the dollar enough, the manufacturing will come back.

stickfigure 9mo ago

Why is manufacturing so special? As opposed to something like software? Also, manufacturing in the US is growing not shrinking. For a long time.

marcosdumay 9mo ago
> Also, manufacturing in the US is growing not shrinking. For a long time. Well, at least up to 2024... I think when people run the next number, there will be a surprise there.
pessimizer 9mo ago
Software can leave your country in a fraction of a second. Manufacturing is infrastructure. This is also basic. Manufacturing in the US is shrinking, comparatively with other countries that actually make things. People just think they can just play with numbers, categories and dollar values to hide it. The US has been playing a currency game since 1980 to make up for the loss of the free money it got for reconstructing Europe and Japan, and using that money to buy things from impoverished workers in China. And as China got on its feet through careful planning and management, it moved to India, Pakistan, Mexico, Indonesia, the Philippines, anywhere that was willing to stomp on its workers and pollute its air and water. Now China has gotten to the point that it is a viable alternative to the US, so the US can't unilaterally set terms anymore for its suppliers. It's dumping US treasuries. It's competing for natural resources in countries that the US just tried to topple and steal their natural resources through sieges that ironically served to cut the US's legs from under them, giving China a huge discount. The game is up. China going from nowhere to the greatest economy on the planet in 50 years is what happens when you manage and cultivate manufacturing. US real estate and an economy run on luxury consumption is what you get when you outsource manufacturing and play word games to cover it up. We literally can't tariff China significantly, they could crush our economy just by embargoing us like we freely embargo everyone else. That's the power of a manufacturing base. We might want to fix our bridges, too.
- hintymad 9mo ago
  Case in point, it's news that Canada leaned toward partnering with China when having dispute with the US, but it would be a joke 20 years ago. It's a humiliation that the US brought upon itself: you can't produce things that people need, then don't blame that people will have leverage in other places.
kagakuninja 9mo ago
If The US goes to war against China, we are screwed, because we outsourced our manufacturing to China. We cannot quickly ramp up our manufacture of ships, tanks, aircraft or ammunition. Not only do we lack manufacturing capacity, the entire supply chain is in China / Asia. In addition, China leads in the critical technologies need for drone oriented warfare, like we are seeing in Ukraine.
- hintymad 9mo ago
  In particular, the pentagon has so many suppliers in China. Oh, the KPIs (key pharmaceutical ingredients) are produced by China too. We even had shortage of saline solution when China was having a supply crunch. So when a conflict, let alone a war, broke out with China, what do we do? We ask China to supply us the war logistics? A fun story, China has the best automated seafood processing factories that meet all kinds of regulations in the world. It's cheaper, a lot cheaper, for Japan and Alaska to send their seafood to China to process, and then sell back to the domestic market. And it has nothing to do with cheap labor but deep R&D of China. So, when war broke out, many people won't be able to enjoy cheap seafood either. I don't understand how people can ignore a simple fact (is it Milton who pointed that out?): Manufacturing is a "doing" business, not a "knowing" business. Our expertise is forged on the shop floor, not dreamed up in a boardroom, and certainly not bought through outsourcing. There is so much tacit knowledge that manufacturing capability is a living system. It lives in the collective experience of the workforce and the rhythm of the line, not in static documents. Oh maybe this is the time to quota Thomas Joseph Dunning: With adequate profit, capital is very bold. A certain 10 per cent. will ensure its employment anywhere; 20 per cent. certain will produce eagerness; 50 per cent., positive audacity; 100 per cent. will make it ready to trample on all human laws; 300 per cent., and there is not a crime at which it will scruple, nor a risk it will not run, even to the chance of its owner being hanged.
hintymad 9mo ago
> Why is manufacturing so special? As opposed to something like software? I assume that dollar will be strong if people want to buy stuff from the US, which requires using the US currency. Software indeed is a strong sector. I'm just not sure (as due to my ignorance) if they compensate sufficiently the trade deficit. For instance, if advertisers use Instagram in Europe, they wouldn't need the US dollar to pay for the service, right? If there's no virtual export happens, I'd assume there won't be any need for the US currency either. > Also, manufacturing in the US is growing not shrinking. For a long time. What about market share? I remember that the US had more than 65% of the manufacturing marketshare 25 years ago. Actually, I'm more concerned about the long-term national security and prosperity of the US, and I think they are tied to a robust manufacturing sector. But that's different topic.

wvenable 9mo ago

A weak dollar is good for manufacturing and a strong dollar is bad for it. China tightly controls to the Yuan to purposely keep it's value low to benefit it's manufacturing. The current US administration wants to something similar for the US to boost manufacturing. I think that's foolish and backwards thinking. The US doesn't really need more manufacturing; it had relatively low unemployment, a healthy economy, etc. The US is a service country. Apple is one of the richest companies in the world and does none of it's manufacturing in the US. Why wouldn't people invest in Apple?

hintymad 9mo ago
This too. Many people argue that if we weaken the dollar enough, the manufacturing will come back.