6 ms·

Europe could 'weaponize' $10T of US assets over Greenland

92 points by saubeidl 9mo ago

saubeidl 9mo ago
https://archive.ph/S918n https://archive.ph/S918n
aebtebeten 9mo ago
> only if foreign holders of US assets are willing to suffer financially As a foreign-domiciled holder of US assets, my vibe is that losing the rule of law would indirectly lead to significantly more financial suffering. How well did bond-holders fare, getting out of the last Lebensraum era?
- ratelimitsteve 9mo ago
  you're thinking systemically. chaosh ish a ladder, shansha. this will lead to overall downturns in everything but pockets of extreme windfall for people well positioned to either sell the US the supplies it needs to engage in war all the time against everyone or to distribute looted assets, and those are the people influencing the decision the most.
- gsf_emergency_6 9mo ago
  Gold repatriation..
  - aebtebeten 9mo ago
    Repatriated 20 years ago, according to https://www.srf.ch/news/wirtschaft/gold-in-den-usa-deutschland-prueft-gold-aus-den-usa-abzuziehen-wie-die-schweiz https://www.srf.ch/news/wirtschaft/gold-in-den-usa-deutschla...
dsfdsfsdfsdf 9mo ago
[flagged]
- aspbee555 9mo ago
  I want to see USA recover from the abuser that is separating us from our friends and trying to beat us into silence/compliance like abusive people do I never realized there was so many people that enjoy watching their family get beaten bloody, ie. Stockholm syndrome
  - saubeidl 9mo ago
    Organize. Find like-minded people. Take to the streets. Go on strike. Don't just let this happen!
  - embedding-shape 9mo ago
    > enjoy watching their family get beaten bloody, ie. Stockholm syndrome That's sadism or something, not Stockholm Syndrome which is about victims forming psychological bonds with their abductors, named so after it happened in Stockholm in 1973. I think it's less about "like to see someone get beaten" and more "see someone who thought they owned the world and could bully others around, crumble under their own incompetence is satisfying", or something like that. Personally, I think it sucks, but I do understand how others can see it in different light, considering the long history of meddling with others.
- jermaustin1 9mo ago
  I'm all for us Americans feeling the pain of electing this idiot, but let's not forget that only 30% of eligible voters actually voted for him. It is a shame that more didn't vote against him, but when the Democrats decided to run someone that the country didn't even remember existed a few months before the election, instead of for the 2 years PRIOR to the election, she never had the chance.
  - nneonneo 9mo ago
    Ah, 30% voted for him, but more than 30% decided it didn’t matter to them which one was in power. It’s unclear to me if that apathetic percentage has actually moved significantly.
nemomarx 9mo ago
If open war breaks out with Europe, wouldn't these assets end up frozen anyway? It doesn't seem like weaponization to hedge that risk.
dmk 9mo ago
Living in the EU, I'm skeptical any of this happens. Our leaders have been pretty reluctant to push back on anything so far and most of these assets are private anyway.
- consumer451 9mo ago
  Wouldn't this be done by individual institutions and countries, not all once by "the EU?" Evidence of that: > Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46692594 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46692594
  - dmk 9mo ago
    Fair point. Though I wonder if individual fund moves actually move the needle here or if it's mostly symbolic until it becomes a trend.
    - consumer451 9mo ago
      I believe that the best political speech of our time has just been presented. [0] I believe that you might be a fellow European. If you happen to have 30 minutes to listen, I would love to hear your feedback. [0] https://www.youtube.com/live/dE981Z_TaVo?t=100s https://www.youtube.com/live/dE981Z_TaVo?t=100s
  - pqtyw 9mo ago
    That's a tiny barely significant amount, though. However the amount of US treasuries Denmark holds but privately and publicly did decrease by 20% or so over the last yea which I guess is something..
baby 9mo ago
Why are Americans letting their country go rogue internationally and risk going to war with Europe, Canada, or South America?
- vkou 9mo ago
  Because they voted a Republican congress due to egg price anxieties.
- nemomarx 9mo ago
  If you can think of a good way to stop it happening before the midterms, I'm all ears.
  - saubeidl 9mo ago
    You could do as the Ukrainians did for a start : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan
    - cmxch 9mo ago
      Kind of hard to pull off in a country that helped orchestrate it and with a lot more people to defend the status quo.
  - JasonADrury 9mo ago
    [flagged]
    - boplicity 9mo ago
      NO. Just no.
      - JasonADrury 9mo ago
        Why not? We're presumably accepting the premise that the country is going to "go rogue internationally and risk going to war with Europe, Canada, or South America?". Would it similarly have been a horrible thing in your mind if someone had shot Vladimir Putin in January 2014?
ummonk 9mo ago
"Could". Of course they'll drag their feet once again because they're appeasing cowards, unlike Canadians.
- deleted 9mo ago
  [deleted]
- pqtyw 9mo ago
  > unlike Canadians. Who did what? Symbolically threaten to tax electricity exports to some cities close to the border and stopped importing American booze? Canada is still the top 5 holder of US bounds..
ratelimitsteve 9mo ago
the entire world of neoliberal ghouls will bend over for trump because they've all quietly been offered a share of what he loots
- cudgy 9mo ago
  Isn’t Europe full of neoliberal ghouls stoking war with Russia, blowing up pipelines, and cheering on rogue nations like Israel?
  - ratelimitsteve 9mo ago
    perpetual war is great for neoliberalism because it forces public spending on private, consumable goods. no matter how many bombs you buy today you're gonna need more tomorrow, it's in the nature of bombs. then later if there's ever a break in the destruction the bombmakers can invest their windfall profits in construction companies, thus winning in both directions.
  - beardyw 9mo ago
    > Isn’t Europe full of neoliberal ghouls There are some, but not as many as you imagine.
  - actionfromafar 9mo ago
    Russia is stoking
cudgy 9mo ago
Won’t flooding the market with large supply of bonds being sold at one time cause the price of the bonds to drop, resulting in losses for the sellers of the bonds? Meanwhile, the bond holders that don’t sell, can wait it out until the bond pays out or the selling mania stops, and the price returns to equilibrium.
- saubeidl 9mo ago
  That's kind of the point. Crash the bonds market and with it the US government.
  - hatradiowigwam 9mo ago
    That won't work... that will crash the price of [new] bonds, and more capitalized nations will buy the dip. You are operating under an assumption that the humans controlling a quantity of wealth enough to [quote] "crash the bonds market" make decisions based on principles. They don't - and if you compare history with a long term bond price chart then it will become apparent.
    - saubeidl 9mo ago
      Now, pray tell, which other nations are more capitalized than the world's third largest economy? Who would buy the dip? China? I doubt it. And nobody else has the scale.
- dzogchen 9mo ago
  Except at that point the dollar will be so devalued that you are still losing in real terms.
cowpig 9mo ago
Does this play into his supporters' agenda? Trump's policies seem to be aimed at devaluing USD and harming the US and its allies. I guess maybe this pressures the other powers that be in the US that don't take the threat seriously to do more to stop him?
dayyan 9mo ago
[flagged]
- deleted 9mo ago
  [deleted]
alecco 9mo ago
European banks need the swap lines by the Fed to stay afloat. ECB, BoE, SNB, Denmark, Sweden, all are on USD life support. The only viable way to do this would be for the EU to fully switch out of USA/USD into China/BRICS but Russia won't allow it and who is going to buy EU's exports? Not China. But that analysis of viable options is for rational and competent leadership, so who knows.
- pqtyw 9mo ago
  > or the EU to fully switch out of USA/USD into China/BRICS but Russia TO solve > need the swap lines by the Fed to stay afloat ? This is about as nonsensical as it gets.
  - alecco 9mo ago
    EU banks: 1. Lend and trade in USD; 2. Have a shitload of deposits (liabilities) in USD-denominated accounts [1] [2] (1 trillion?) A huge amount of EU imports (from outside Europe) have to be paid in USD. Like oil/natgas/commodities and manufactured stuff. The Euro is not really used as reserve currency outside of EU. So if EU goes into economic war with USA by dumping US treasuries: 1. they would be trading those treasuries for something else (EUR denominated bonds? yuan? something else?); 2. no more swap lines and goodbye exports to USA so USD debt trap with depositors (forced conversion to EUR?); 3. How are they going to pay imports without USD lines? The only other big player who can give them equivalent liquidity in swap lines is China. But as I stated, that would be even worse than USD dependency and less likely. All this while the EU industrial base is on the brink and with a huge dependency on American natgas and Chinese supply chain. They cornered themselves and they can't do much without huge sacrifices. The only way out needs a complete shakeup of the leadership in Brussels and a new economic plan. I wouldn't bet on that happening. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollar [2] https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/focus/2024/html/ecb.fsrbox202411_04~9a4d04b582.en.html https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publicat... [3] https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/european-banks-increase-reliance-us-dollar-funding-eu-regulator-finds-2025-11-03/ https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulat...
polytely 9mo ago
If the US would suffer more than the EU we should do it. A less powerful US would be a boon for the world.
nikanj 9mo ago
Could, but inevitably one member state will veto it because of their niche interests. See also: EU-Mercosur trade agreements. We get nothing done in the EU because we are all prisoners to 27 different voting populations, and nothing moves forward if even one of them opposes it
drivebyhooting 9mo ago
Such righteous resolve would’ve been useful when dealing with Russian oil and gas.
hmokiguess 9mo ago
So much optics and theatre going on, makes you wonder what is the larger play / bigger move that is motivating all of this.
hnburnsy 9mo ago
Many times when I see these articles, I just think TACO and move on.
- morkalork 9mo ago
  I wonder if Maduro felt the same

92 points by saubeidl 9mo ago

https://archive.ph/S918n https://archive.ph/S918n

> only if foreign holders of US assets are willing to suffer financially As a foreign-domiciled holder of US assets, my vibe is that losing the rule of law would indirectly lead to significantly more financial suffering. How well did bond-holders fare, getting out of the last Lebensraum era?

ratelimitsteve 9mo ago
you're thinking systemically. chaosh ish a ladder, shansha. this will lead to overall downturns in everything but pockets of extreme windfall for people well positioned to either sell the US the supplies it needs to engage in war all the time against everyone or to distribute looted assets, and those are the people influencing the decision the most.
gsf_emergency_6 9mo ago
Gold repatriation..
- aebtebeten 9mo ago
  Repatriated 20 years ago, according to https://www.srf.ch/news/wirtschaft/gold-in-den-usa-deutschland-prueft-gold-aus-den-usa-abzuziehen-wie-die-schweiz https://www.srf.ch/news/wirtschaft/gold-in-den-usa-deutschla...

dsfdsfsdfsdf 9mo ago

[flagged]

aspbee555 9mo ago
I want to see USA recover from the abuser that is separating us from our friends and trying to beat us into silence/compliance like abusive people do I never realized there was so many people that enjoy watching their family get beaten bloody, ie. Stockholm syndrome
- saubeidl 9mo ago
  Organize. Find like-minded people. Take to the streets. Go on strike. Don't just let this happen!
- embedding-shape 9mo ago
  > enjoy watching their family get beaten bloody, ie. Stockholm syndrome That's sadism or something, not Stockholm Syndrome which is about victims forming psychological bonds with their abductors, named so after it happened in Stockholm in 1973. I think it's less about "like to see someone get beaten" and more "see someone who thought they owned the world and could bully others around, crumble under their own incompetence is satisfying", or something like that. Personally, I think it sucks, but I do understand how others can see it in different light, considering the long history of meddling with others.
jermaustin1 9mo ago
I'm all for us Americans feeling the pain of electing this idiot, but let's not forget that only 30% of eligible voters actually voted for him. It is a shame that more didn't vote against him, but when the Democrats decided to run someone that the country didn't even remember existed a few months before the election, instead of for the 2 years PRIOR to the election, she never had the chance.
- nneonneo 9mo ago
  Ah, 30% voted for him, but more than 30% decided it didn’t matter to them which one was in power. It’s unclear to me if that apathetic percentage has actually moved significantly.

nemomarx 9mo ago

If open war breaks out with Europe, wouldn't these assets end up frozen anyway? It doesn't seem like weaponization to hedge that risk.

dmk 9mo ago

Living in the EU, I'm skeptical any of this happens. Our leaders have been pretty reluctant to push back on anything so far and most of these assets are private anyway.

consumer451 9mo ago
Wouldn't this be done by individual institutions and countries, not all once by "the EU?" Evidence of that: > Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46692594 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46692594
- dmk 9mo ago
  Fair point. Though I wonder if individual fund moves actually move the needle here or if it's mostly symbolic until it becomes a trend.
  - consumer451 9mo ago
    I believe that the best political speech of our time has just been presented. [0] I believe that you might be a fellow European. If you happen to have 30 minutes to listen, I would love to hear your feedback. [0] https://www.youtube.com/live/dE981Z_TaVo?t=100s https://www.youtube.com/live/dE981Z_TaVo?t=100s
- pqtyw 9mo ago
  That's a tiny barely significant amount, though. However the amount of US treasuries Denmark holds but privately and publicly did decrease by 20% or so over the last yea which I guess is something..

baby 9mo ago

Why are Americans letting their country go rogue internationally and risk going to war with Europe, Canada, or South America?

vkou 9mo ago
Because they voted a Republican congress due to egg price anxieties.
nemomarx 9mo ago
If you can think of a good way to stop it happening before the midterms, I'm all ears.
- saubeidl 9mo ago
  You could do as the Ukrainians did for a start : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan
  - cmxch 9mo ago
    Kind of hard to pull off in a country that helped orchestrate it and with a lot more people to defend the status quo.
- JasonADrury 9mo ago
  [flagged]
  - boplicity 9mo ago
    NO. Just no.
    - JasonADrury 9mo ago
      Why not? We're presumably accepting the premise that the country is going to "go rogue internationally and risk going to war with Europe, Canada, or South America?". Would it similarly have been a horrible thing in your mind if someone had shot Vladimir Putin in January 2014?

ummonk 9mo ago

"Could". Of course they'll drag their feet once again because they're appeasing cowards, unlike Canadians.

deleted 9mo ago
[deleted]
pqtyw 9mo ago
> unlike Canadians. Who did what? Symbolically threaten to tax electricity exports to some cities close to the border and stopped importing American booze? Canada is still the top 5 holder of US bounds..

ratelimitsteve 9mo ago

the entire world of neoliberal ghouls will bend over for trump because they've all quietly been offered a share of what he loots

cudgy 9mo ago
Isn’t Europe full of neoliberal ghouls stoking war with Russia, blowing up pipelines, and cheering on rogue nations like Israel?
- ratelimitsteve 9mo ago
  perpetual war is great for neoliberalism because it forces public spending on private, consumable goods. no matter how many bombs you buy today you're gonna need more tomorrow, it's in the nature of bombs. then later if there's ever a break in the destruction the bombmakers can invest their windfall profits in construction companies, thus winning in both directions.
- beardyw 9mo ago
  > Isn’t Europe full of neoliberal ghouls There are some, but not as many as you imagine.
- actionfromafar 9mo ago
  Russia is stoking

cudgy 9mo ago

Won’t flooding the market with large supply of bonds being sold at one time cause the price of the bonds to drop, resulting in losses for the sellers of the bonds? Meanwhile, the bond holders that don’t sell, can wait it out until the bond pays out or the selling mania stops, and the price returns to equilibrium.

saubeidl 9mo ago
That's kind of the point. Crash the bonds market and with it the US government.
- hatradiowigwam 9mo ago
  That won't work... that will crash the price of [new] bonds, and more capitalized nations will buy the dip. You are operating under an assumption that the humans controlling a quantity of wealth enough to [quote] "crash the bonds market" make decisions based on principles. They don't - and if you compare history with a long term bond price chart then it will become apparent.
  - saubeidl 9mo ago
    Now, pray tell, which other nations are more capitalized than the world's third largest economy? Who would buy the dip? China? I doubt it. And nobody else has the scale.
dzogchen 9mo ago
Except at that point the dollar will be so devalued that you are still losing in real terms.

cowpig 9mo ago

Does this play into his supporters' agenda? Trump's policies seem to be aimed at devaluing USD and harming the US and its allies. I guess maybe this pressures the other powers that be in the US that don't take the threat seriously to do more to stop him?

dayyan 9mo ago

[flagged]

deleted 9mo ago
[deleted]

alecco 9mo ago

European banks need the swap lines by the Fed to stay afloat. ECB, BoE, SNB, Denmark, Sweden, all are on USD life support. The only viable way to do this would be for the EU to fully switch out of USA/USD into China/BRICS but Russia won't allow it and who is going to buy EU's exports? Not China. But that analysis of viable options is for rational and competent leadership, so who knows.

pqtyw 9mo ago
> or the EU to fully switch out of USA/USD into China/BRICS but Russia TO solve > need the swap lines by the Fed to stay afloat ? This is about as nonsensical as it gets.
- alecco 9mo ago
  EU banks: 1. Lend and trade in USD; 2. Have a shitload of deposits (liabilities) in USD-denominated accounts [1] [2] (1 trillion?) A huge amount of EU imports (from outside Europe) have to be paid in USD. Like oil/natgas/commodities and manufactured stuff. The Euro is not really used as reserve currency outside of EU. So if EU goes into economic war with USA by dumping US treasuries: 1. they would be trading those treasuries for something else (EUR denominated bonds? yuan? something else?); 2. no more swap lines and goodbye exports to USA so USD debt trap with depositors (forced conversion to EUR?); 3. How are they going to pay imports without USD lines? The only other big player who can give them equivalent liquidity in swap lines is China. But as I stated, that would be even worse than USD dependency and less likely. All this while the EU industrial base is on the brink and with a huge dependency on American natgas and Chinese supply chain. They cornered themselves and they can't do much without huge sacrifices. The only way out needs a complete shakeup of the leadership in Brussels and a new economic plan. I wouldn't bet on that happening. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollar [2] https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/focus/2024/html/ecb.fsrbox202411_04~9a4d04b582.en.html https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publicat... [3] https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/european-banks-increase-reliance-us-dollar-funding-eu-regulator-finds-2025-11-03/ https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulat...

polytely 9mo ago

If the US would suffer more than the EU we should do it. A less powerful US would be a boon for the world.

nikanj 9mo ago

Could, but inevitably one member state will veto it because of their niche interests. See also: EU-Mercosur trade agreements. We get nothing done in the EU because we are all prisoners to 27 different voting populations, and nothing moves forward if even one of them opposes it

drivebyhooting 9mo ago

Such righteous resolve would’ve been useful when dealing with Russian oil and gas.

hmokiguess 9mo ago

So much optics and theatre going on, makes you wonder what is the larger play / bigger move that is motivating all of this.

hnburnsy 9mo ago

Many times when I see these articles, I just think TACO and move on.

morkalork 9mo ago
I wonder if Maduro felt the same