4 ms·

I think we are going to be driving hybrids in large numbers for several decades until there's a new battery technology that triples energy density over the stat

• pjc50 9mo ago
  Apart from Toyotas, hybrids are kind of unpopular precisely because they're a compromise. Not many people who do make the switch to EV go back. Additional tipping points will come when cities start banning combustion engines on emissions grounds. Then gas stations start closing. After a while you get the reverse condition to EV range anxiety: having to drive further and further out of your way to fill up. Maybe you get a script-flipping service, an EV comes to the few remaining unconverted combustion vehicles with a small bowser of fuel.
  • fooker 9mo ago
    Almost everyone I know with an EV also has another car right now.
  • NetMageSCW 9mo ago
    But that is far in the future, long after my recently purchased ICE needs replacing.
    • WorldMaker 9mo ago
      The 1970s suggests that when gas stations start closing they may close a lot faster than people expect. Gas has a weird margin and is often something of a "loss leader" to convenience stores (or now full supermarkets). On the supply side it is capital-heavy and demand-driven in interesting ways that will respond to demand drops in terms of a "ratchet effect", in which many types of temporary shutdowns will result in permanent shutdowns that will be more expensive to restart than there should be investment interest. Gas logistics is fascinating with how many possible places exist for disruption (in the negative sense more than the tech sense) to cause domino chains. Things have the possibility to get "very interesting" in a unique shutdown spiral. I don't know how soon we'll see it, or if we'll see it, but if it happens I don't think it is "far" in the future, even as the 1970s starts to feel too far out of cultural memory to use as an allegory.
  • catigula 9mo ago
    This is nonsense. Hybrids are outselling EVs in the US. Hybrid adoption in the US is soaring. It's doubled in just a few years. They're hugely popular in the US precisely because they're NOT a compromise.
    • WorldMaker 9mo ago
      They are hugely popular in the US because there are more of them for sale and they have a lot of momentum from Toyota getting lost in the Hydrogen distraction. From the perspective of a BEV with a modern range, hybrids have terrible all-electric range (if they even have true electric range) and worse maintenance schedules/cost of ownership. That's the compromise: less weight for good batteries for pure electric range and higher cost of ownership for high weight moving parts that you don't need in trips below electric range.
      • catigula 9mo ago
        >and worse maintenance schedules/cost of ownership Sorry, but this is simply incorrect. The Toyota Prius has the most reliable powertrain on the American market in most studies. This is the decades old Toyota hybrid planetary gearset engine and eCVT. It has less moving wear parts than an ICE engine, a generous warranty, absorbs brake wear, etc. It's pretty umambigious at this point, so I'm not sure where you're sourcing your facts from (vibes?). Given this fact wasn't understood, there isn't much more content to engage with. Modern hybrids are popular because they're very good and side-step all of the myriad problems with electric vehicles.
        • WorldMaker 9mo ago
          More reliable than the average ICE, statistically, I will grant you. Though I think that has more to do with Toyota dominating US auto manufacturing reliability statistics in general, more than particulars of hybrids over ICE. The comparison, however, was to a full ("uncompromised") BEV. A full BEV has much fewer moving parts than ICE or Hybrid. (Especially because good electric motors don't even constitute "moving parts" when compared to an internal combustion engine, thanks to magnets.)
• onion2k 9mo ago
  "If I asked what people wanted they'd have asked for a longer range horse." Henry Ford, probably.
• NoGravitas 9mo ago
  The smartest direction for someone manufacturing for the US market right now is probably EREVs aka serial hybrids - pure electric drivetrain, onboard gas generator. Only use gas when you're taking the kids to Grandma's, or when some obstacle prevents you from charging normally. Ford seems to be going in this direction, possibly a little late.
  • fooker 9mo ago
    I agree, this is likely the technology for the next few decades. Maybe with some supercapacitors or something like that thrown in. Electric motors are far more efficient at producing mechanical energy than a engine+transmission combo is. But at the same time, batteries suck.
• ianburrell 9mo ago
  Solid state lithium batteries, which are starting to roll out now, are big enough jump. They have 50-80% more capacity which gives enough range for a day of driving. They charge faster so can charge on regular stops. They aren't flammable. Cars don't need triple energy density, 600mi range and 15min charge is plenty. There is cost factor, but batteries have gotten cheap that isn't an issue. People talk about lithium shortage but it hasn't shown up.
  • fooker 9mo ago
    > 600mi range and 15min charge is plenty. Agreed. So, it would be a matter of how fast the solid state batteries you speak of make their ways into actual cars. Right now, there aren't any. And battery tech has always over promised and under delivered.