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Dylan, you're a masterclass in saying nothing whilst appearing to argue. You invented that "7%" stuff in a sibling thread from thin air. You claimed nobody was

• Dylan16807 9mo ago
  > You invented "7%" from thin air. Yes. I said I did. Because when I openly talk about a hypothetical number, people have to focus on whether my logic is correct or incorrect. Because that part of the post was about what implies what. > You claimed nobody was arguing about innocent convictions No. I said nobody argued MOST convictions were innocent. Because you keep talking about MOST convictions to make your arguments. > "Unjust" doesn't mean wrong outcomes Doesn't mean a specific number of wrong outcomes. This is the key miscommunication that has caused the entire argument. A system can be unjust in 100% of cases, but only give the wrong answer in a smaller percent of cases. > "Coercive" doesn't mean producing false confessions, it just means... pressure exists, somehow. coerce: To use force, threat, fraud, or intimidation in an attempt to compel one to act against their will. Edit: To make a clearer statement, whether it's coercion is about whether there is an unreasonable amount of pressure being applied. This has no connection to whether the confession is true or false. > Here's what you won't say directly but keep implying: that plea bargains routinely produce false confessions. Yes. > My position: the law is applied justly more often than unjustly. You either disagree with that or you don't. No more semantic gymnastics. Which. is. it? Ugh, this is annoying when we're disagreeing about what "just" means. The way you're using it, the law is just more often than not. But "more often" is an absolute garbage threshold. We need way way way better than that.
  • dijit 9mo ago
    Alright, let's see if I get this right. You're arguing that a system can apply the law unjustly even when it reaches correct outcomes. I think that's only meaningful if the "unjust application" materially affects people's lives in ways that matter beyond process. So: plea bargains. You say they apply unreasonable pressure. But what makes the pressure unreasonable? A prosecutor offering a reduced sentence for pleading guilty isn't force, threat, fraud, or intimidation. It's a straightforward trade: save the court's time and resources, get a lighter sentence. That's pressure, but it's not inherently unreasonable. You could argue it becomes unreasonable when the alternative is so severe that even innocent people feel compelled to plead. But that's an empirical claim. How often does that happen? You've now said you think plea bargains routinely produce false confessions. That's testable. Where's the evidence? On thresholds: you're right that "more often than not" sounds low for a justice system. But the question is compared to what? Every alternative has error rates. Jury trials have wrongful convictions. Bench trials have wrongful convictions. The question isn't whether the system is perfect, it's whether it's better than the realistic alternatives and whether the error rate is acceptable. What error rate would you accept? Because without that, "we need way way way better" is just saying "it should be perfect," which isn't achievable. The original claim upthread was that the law is rarely applied justly. That's not a claim about error rates being too high, it's a claim that injustice is the norm. Do you actually believe that, or are you arguing something more limited about plea bargaining specifically?
    • Dylan16807 9mo ago
      > So: plea bargains. You say they apply unreasonable pressure. But what makes the pressure unreasonable? A prosecutor offering a reduced sentence for pleading guilty isn't force, threat, fraud, or intimidation. It's a straightforward trade: save the court's time and resources, get a lighter sentence. That's pressure, but it's not inherently unreasonable. The biggest issue these days seems to be that people can't afford a proper trial. So instead of a relatively fair exchange of simplifying out the risk of trial for a certain outcome, reducing hassle for everyone, there's a five figure monetary weight tipping the balance. The prosecutor isn't causing this but the design of the system is. > How often does that happen? You've now said you think plea bargains routinely produce false confessions. That's testable. Where's the evidence? I don't know where the evidence is. Remember my first comment was saying you should bring in evidence for your strong claims. I don't have strong claims right now, I have worries. > What error rate would you accept? Because without that, "we need way way way better" is just saying "it should be perfect," which isn't achievable. We need a lot more information before I can say what an acceptable error rate. But there's some obvious factors pushing us away from that, so we're very likely not where we should be. > The original claim upthread was that the law is rarely applied justly. That's not a claim about error rates being too high, it's a claim that injustice is the norm. Do you actually believe that, or are you arguing something more limited about plea bargaining specifically? If the vast majority of people feel unsafe going to trial, then the law is not being applied in a just way. And I think that is a very common feeling. The amount it pushes error rates is smaller, because a lot of those people are guilty. But often they're not guilty of the full accusation, and sometimes they're not guilty of anything. So I think a lot of people are going through an unfair process, and some of them are getting incorrect sentences. I think a general sentiment that the law is unjust, or that people are not getting due process, is a reasonable opinion to have about that process. If you have a specific comment you want to refer to by "the law is rarely applied justly", I can look at that specific one, because I'm not sure who you are referring to. verisimi's crack was a pretty vague implication, and jakelazaroff was arguing that people don't get proper due process. Neither of those statements is making an extreme claim about error rates.