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> Event studies around discrete tariff shocks on Brazil (50%) and India (25–50%) confirm: export prices did not decline. Trade volumes collapsed instead. What
by ungreased0675 9mo ago
> Event studies around discrete tariff shocks on Brazil (50%) and India (25–50%) confirm: export prices did not decline. Trade volumes collapsed instead.
What if that was the intended result?
- philk10 9mo agoyour question implies that the person in charge of tariffs has any idea of the effect of using them...
- nozzlegear 9mo agoBob Woodward's book Fear: Trump in the White House made it pretty clear that Trump (in his first term) either did not understand how trade works between countries or did not care. At the time he was singularly focused on "trade deficits," especially the one between the US and South Korea, because on paper it seemed like the US was "losing" or "being taken advantage of" by South Korea. That was all he cared about, reducing that trade deficit so the US came out on top.
- ta988 9mo agoWhat if the idea was to add a tax without calling it a tax so they would have more revenue to apply their plan?
- the_gipsy 9mo agoOr to tax the poor.
- __s 9mo agoI've heard this defence plenty from other Americans. & the campaign pushed "built in America" as a goal, so it seems likely the person in charge had this idea
- philk10 9mo agoso as stupid an idea as the tariffs then
- dsr_ 9mo agoThen it was a big win for Putin and his agent in the White House.
- diydsp 9mo agoIve done a lot of analysis on the Trump as Putin agent topic. I found he nearly as often acts agents Russia as with. What's more likely is he treats Putin as an inspiration, wrt to converting the country to an oligarchy and offshoring national funds for himself.
- quakeguy 9mo ago*acts against
- Sharlin 9mo agoYeah. The idea that he's a Russian asset, although tempting, has always seemed to me like a coping mechanism of sorts – externalizing the evil, like blaming the devil for one's bad deeds. And, of course, Hanlon's razor is very much relevant here, although certainly it doesn't apply to everybody in Trump's inner circle. Some of them are very much competent and malevolent.
- lobsterthief 9mo agoWhy not both?
- enaaem 9mo agoI found Vlad Vexler’s take interesting. Trump has a narcissistic personality disorder. Not a narcissistic trait that many elites have, but an actual disorder. He looks up to Putin and wants to bask in Putin’s glory to elevate himself. [1] https://open.substack.com/pub/vladvexler/p/we-need-to-talk-about-trumps-narcissism?r=1s0icc&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay https://open.substack.com/pub/vladvexler/p/we-need-to-talk-a...
- bryanrasmussen 9mo agois the acting against Russia and against American interest, in a way that helps Russian interests, of equivocal effect? For example if I shoot Batman in the back when he's fighting The Joker (because Batman is a vigilante so that's illegal, gotta take him down), and later make a statement to the press after Joker has been sent to Arkham "You know I think Arkham is a good place for that guy, he got what he deserved", I have acted for and against The Joker's interest, which is a good cover for me as an agent of The Joker. I have often seen Trump doing stuff that is counter Russia's interests, but stuff that seems extremely weak sauce in contrast to weakening Nato, as just one example. It is spycraft 101 that you give your assets some simple stuff they can do against you, to make them seem trustworthy.
- speakfreely 9mo agoIt certainly was to anyone who has been paying attention. I would highly recommend that anyone who thinks the tariff strategy is irrational to read through Michael Kao's substack and his analysis of the administration's 2.0 playbook [1]. There's good news and bad news, but overall there's glimmers of hope. [1] https://archive.ph/kLxw3 https://archive.ph/kLxw3
- nkmnz 9mo agoHow can one come to the conclusion that US consumers suffered from the US trade deficit with China? They’ve effectively received free stuff every single year, manufactured by Chinese workers, without paying them. I don’t get it.
- stavros 9mo agoIsn't that exactly the point of tariffs? To decrease import volumes so local industry can fill the gap and compete?
- rjrjrjrj 9mo agoNot so much compete as being protected from having to compete.
- nathan_compton 9mo agoTalking about competition between places with good labor standards and environmental regulation and places without those things is bullshit. I would be 100% pro free trade between nations with identical labor rights and environmental protections, but that really isn't what free trade is about, is it?
- rjrjrjrj 9mo agoThe EU and Canada have better labor standards and environmental regulation than the US. Perhaps the US should charge them negative tariffs until it gets up to snuff.
- dyauspitr 9mo agoEven if it was, the problem is that this is a classic trap where protecting your own market will result in overpriced goods in the home market. We would be paying extravagant amounts for everything. Most other countries wouldn’t have that problem and would result in being stuck in time like a lot of the former Soviet Union.
- carlosjobim 9mo agoWhy should something be cheaper to produce in China than in the United States or Europe?
- ChromaticPanic 9mo agoAutomation. Ability to innovate without made up IP BS .
- dyauspitr 9mo agoLabor laws, PPP and standard of living.
- carlosjobim 9mo agoThen maybe it's morally right to tariff their goods? (As all countries already do, not only the US) Otherwise, what's the purpose of labor laws within the US or Europe?
- dyauspitr 9mo agoEconomics doesn’t go well with gut feels or idealism.