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China doesn't seem to think so. >"The top uniformed soldier in China, chairman of China's Central Military Commission, stated that war with the United States i

China doesn't seem to think so. >"The top uniformed soldier in China, chairman of China's Central Military Commission, stated that war with the United States is inevitable," Coffman said. "That is the first time China has made that statement publicly." https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/03/11/china-declares-war-us-inevitable-army-general-highlights-need-fighting-vehicles.html https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/03/11/china-declare... Would you say the same thing about Russia, Is that a fabricated narrative? Why or why not?

thaumasiotes 9mo ago
>> "The top uniformed soldier in China, chairman of China's Central Military Commission, stated that war with the United States is inevitable," Coffman said. Do we have something better than some English-language hearsay from five years ago? I tried looking for more on this and found nothing. I did discover that Xu Qiliang died last June. I doubt he's going to have much influence going forward.
- themaninthedark 9mo ago
  Not sure how to find a primary source, I am only finding news reporting on the speech. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1409929/China-news-US-war-inevitable-Thucydides-Trap-Xu-Qiliang-xi-jinping-military-spending-ont?int_source=amp_continue_reading&int_medium=amp&int_campaign=continue_reading_button#amp-readmore-target https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1409929/China-news-US-w... 5 years ago is not that long ago and we were at the start of the Biden administration then. With Trump back in office are relationships better or more inflamed? >I did discover that Xu Qiliang died last June. I doubt he's going to have much influence going forward. Unelected leadership in top positions are generally not just pushing their own agenda, especially in autocratic governments. Any speech or statement is highly considered and controlled, that statement should be taken as policy unless it is retracted.
  - thaumasiotes 9mo ago
    Just that Express link already contradicts the quote from Coffman: > General Xu Qiliang, China’s second in command of the armed forces after President Xi Jinping, said an increase in military spending is need[ed] to counter the ‘Thucydides Trap’. > Maj. Gen. Richard Coffman, director of the US Army's Next Generation Combat Vehicle Cross Functional Team, saw the remarks as a clear admission war was “inevitable”. > He said: “The top uniformed soldier in China, chairman of China's Central Military Commission, stated that war with the United States is inevitable. Allow me to suggest that "this a way to counter the Thucydides trap" cannot actually be paraphrased as "war is inevitable".
  - thaumasiotes 9mo ago
    > Not sure how to find a primary source I asked Tencent's Hunyuan LLM the following: >> 我听说许其亮在2021年的时候说到美国和修昔底德陷阱，我想找他说出的话 Here is the Google Translate rendition of the response. I'll reply to myself with the original Chinese LLM response. There are pointers here toward finding an official transcript, but the LLM summary tends to suggest it wouldn't be worth the effort, barring some indication that Richard Coffman knew what he was talking about. Anyway: ----- Comrade Xu Qiliang, as a leader of the Party and the state, has delivered important remarks on international relations and strategic security on multiple occasions. Regarding the "Thucydides Trap" you mentioned, our verification confirms that in 2021, he did address his views on the United States and great power competition in relevant meetings or speeches. The following are the core points compiled from publicly available reports (the specific wording should be based on official releases): Key points of Comrade Xu Qiliang's remarks on the United States and the "Thucydides Trap" in 2021: He pointed out that the current international strategic landscape is undergoing profound changes. The United States and other Western countries are clinging to Cold War thinking, pursuing unilateralism and hegemonism, deliberately creating ideological confrontation and geopolitical competition, and attempting to contain and suppress China's development through means such as the "Indo-Pacific Strategy." Essentially, this is imposing the outdated logic of the "Thucydides Trap" on great power relations, which is a misinterpretation of historical laws and a reversal of the trend of the times. He emphasized that China has always adhered to the path of peaceful development and firmly pursued a defensive national defense policy. China has no intention of engaging in a zero-sum game of "a rising power inevitably challenges the established power" with the United States. As the world's two largest economies and permanent members of the UN Security Council, cooperation between China and the US benefits both sides, while confrontation harms both. They should abandon confrontational thinking, respect each other's core interests and major concerns, manage differences and promote cooperation on the basis of mutual respect, equality, and mutual benefit, and jointly safeguard world peace, stability, and prosperity. He also pointed out that the "Thucydides Trap" is not historically inevitable. The key lies in whether great powers can transcend the logic of "a rising power inevitably challenges the established power," establish correct perceptions, and build a new type of international relations. China is willing to work with the United States to promote the building of a China-US relationship that is non-confrontational, mutually respectful, and mutually beneficial, providing new ideas for resolving the "Thucydides Trap." Note: The above content is a summary based on publicly available reports. The specific original text should be based on the full text of the speeches published by official media such as Xinhua News Agency and the People's Liberation Army Daily. To access the complete speech, it is recommended to obtain authoritative information through the following channels: * Visit the China Military Online website (http://www.81.cn http://www.81.cn) or the Ministry of National Defense website (http://www.mod.gov.cn http://www.mod.gov.cn) and search for relevant meeting reports from 2021; * Consult Volume 4 of "Xi Jinping on Governance of China" and news releases from the National People's Congress, the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, and important military meetings of that year; * Follow special reports from central media outlets such as Xinhua News Agency and People's Daily. For further verification, please provide more specific meeting context (such as the National People's Congress PLA delegation meeting, the Central Military Commission enlarged meeting, etc.) to facilitate a more precise search. -----
throw310822 9mo ago
FWIW, Xu Qiliang said that war with the United States is inevitable because of the "Thucydides Trap", the theory that an incumbent power is not going to accept the rise of a competing power. In that case, the war would be started by the current ruling power, not by the rising power. I.e., by the US. In 2014, Xi Jinping had already said "China fully understands that we need a peaceful and stable internal and external environment to develop ourselves. We all need to work together to avoid the Thucydides trap - destructive tensions between an emerging power and established powers … Our aim is to foster a new model of major country relations."
- kelipso 9mo ago
  China kind of avoided the Thicydides trap already it looks like. Trump’s national security strategy document has indicated that the US is going to shore up around the Americas instead of doing the global hegemony strategy. And there have been statements made by US military people (Hegseth maybe) indicating that the US can’t militarily take on China near their coast anymore.
contrarian1234 9mo ago
Russia is not an active economic rival. If they weren't actively attacking neighbors and interfere with governments around the world they would be basically irrelevant. I think the situation is radically different from China. Russia seems to have intentionally positioned themselves as enemies b.c it's part of their identity and the government's attempt to retain some relevance on the international stage
- themaninthedark 9mo ago
  I was commenting more on: >China as the enemy is a fabricated narrative, bc culturally we seem to have a need to have another cold war, we need a "bad guy" Than the economic rival aspect. Because that was exactly what the Democratic party narrative was in 2012, with similar views echoed in Europe. >Romney's claim drew a memorable slam from Obama during a presidential debate: "The 1980s, they're now calling to ask for their foreign policy back," Obama said, seeking to paint Romney as out of touch on a key foreign policy issue. >Albright, who similarly criticized Romney in 2012, said she'd "underestimated" Russia back then. https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/years-mitt-romney-finally-credit-warnings-russia/story%3fid=61330530 https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/yea... >The EU and Russia are not only neighbours but strategic partners who cooperate on a wide range of bilateral and global challenges, based on joint commitments and shared interests. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/memo_11_104 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/memo_1... >In 2014, Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its military intervention in eastern Ukraine following Ukraine’s intention to sign an Association Agreement (AA) with the European Union caught the EU by surprise. https://eu.boell.org/en/2017/07/03/eu-russia-relations-towards-increasingly-geopolitical-paradigm https://eu.boell.org/en/2017/07/03/eu-russia-relations-towar...
  - contrarian1234 9mo ago
    Are you trying to say there is a parallel in that the right voices read the tea leaves correctly and knew that Russia was going to be a crazy rogue state? And that similarly, there are signs China is going to get super belligerent in the future? I would first say that what happened with Russia, at least to me, did not seem inevitable even with hindsight. I don't think Romney had some keen foresight - more like a lucky guess. I also don't really see the same happening with China, though it's of course possible. A sudden economic downturn could trigger a need for an external enemy and a conflict. But a military conflict between the US and China just seems like an absurd fantasy. It'd how you end up with a nuclear war and the death of millions. I don't think the Chinese secretly want this in the long run. They want peace and more business and more wealth

thaumasiotes 9mo ago

>> "The top uniformed soldier in China, chairman of China's Central Military Commission, stated that war with the United States is inevitable," Coffman said. Do we have something better than some English-language hearsay from five years ago? I tried looking for more on this and found nothing. I did discover that Xu Qiliang died last June. I doubt he's going to have much influence going forward.

themaninthedark 9mo ago
Not sure how to find a primary source, I am only finding news reporting on the speech. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1409929/China-news-US-war-inevitable-Thucydides-Trap-Xu-Qiliang-xi-jinping-military-spending-ont?int_source=amp_continue_reading&int_medium=amp&int_campaign=continue_reading_button#amp-readmore-target https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1409929/China-news-US-w... 5 years ago is not that long ago and we were at the start of the Biden administration then. With Trump back in office are relationships better or more inflamed? >I did discover that Xu Qiliang died last June. I doubt he's going to have much influence going forward. Unelected leadership in top positions are generally not just pushing their own agenda, especially in autocratic governments. Any speech or statement is highly considered and controlled, that statement should be taken as policy unless it is retracted.
- thaumasiotes 9mo ago
  Just that Express link already contradicts the quote from Coffman: > General Xu Qiliang, China’s second in command of the armed forces after President Xi Jinping, said an increase in military spending is need[ed] to counter the ‘Thucydides Trap’. > Maj. Gen. Richard Coffman, director of the US Army's Next Generation Combat Vehicle Cross Functional Team, saw the remarks as a clear admission war was “inevitable”. > He said: “The top uniformed soldier in China, chairman of China's Central Military Commission, stated that war with the United States is inevitable. Allow me to suggest that "this a way to counter the Thucydides trap" cannot actually be paraphrased as "war is inevitable".
- thaumasiotes 9mo ago
  > Not sure how to find a primary source I asked Tencent's Hunyuan LLM the following: >> 我听说许其亮在2021年的时候说到美国和修昔底德陷阱，我想找他说出的话 Here is the Google Translate rendition of the response. I'll reply to myself with the original Chinese LLM response. There are pointers here toward finding an official transcript, but the LLM summary tends to suggest it wouldn't be worth the effort, barring some indication that Richard Coffman knew what he was talking about. Anyway: ----- Comrade Xu Qiliang, as a leader of the Party and the state, has delivered important remarks on international relations and strategic security on multiple occasions. Regarding the "Thucydides Trap" you mentioned, our verification confirms that in 2021, he did address his views on the United States and great power competition in relevant meetings or speeches. The following are the core points compiled from publicly available reports (the specific wording should be based on official releases): Key points of Comrade Xu Qiliang's remarks on the United States and the "Thucydides Trap" in 2021: He pointed out that the current international strategic landscape is undergoing profound changes. The United States and other Western countries are clinging to Cold War thinking, pursuing unilateralism and hegemonism, deliberately creating ideological confrontation and geopolitical competition, and attempting to contain and suppress China's development through means such as the "Indo-Pacific Strategy." Essentially, this is imposing the outdated logic of the "Thucydides Trap" on great power relations, which is a misinterpretation of historical laws and a reversal of the trend of the times. He emphasized that China has always adhered to the path of peaceful development and firmly pursued a defensive national defense policy. China has no intention of engaging in a zero-sum game of "a rising power inevitably challenges the established power" with the United States. As the world's two largest economies and permanent members of the UN Security Council, cooperation between China and the US benefits both sides, while confrontation harms both. They should abandon confrontational thinking, respect each other's core interests and major concerns, manage differences and promote cooperation on the basis of mutual respect, equality, and mutual benefit, and jointly safeguard world peace, stability, and prosperity. He also pointed out that the "Thucydides Trap" is not historically inevitable. The key lies in whether great powers can transcend the logic of "a rising power inevitably challenges the established power," establish correct perceptions, and build a new type of international relations. China is willing to work with the United States to promote the building of a China-US relationship that is non-confrontational, mutually respectful, and mutually beneficial, providing new ideas for resolving the "Thucydides Trap." Note: The above content is a summary based on publicly available reports. The specific original text should be based on the full text of the speeches published by official media such as Xinhua News Agency and the People's Liberation Army Daily. To access the complete speech, it is recommended to obtain authoritative information through the following channels: * Visit the China Military Online website (http://www.81.cn http://www.81.cn) or the Ministry of National Defense website (http://www.mod.gov.cn http://www.mod.gov.cn) and search for relevant meeting reports from 2021; * Consult Volume 4 of "Xi Jinping on Governance of China" and news releases from the National People's Congress, the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, and important military meetings of that year; * Follow special reports from central media outlets such as Xinhua News Agency and People's Daily. For further verification, please provide more specific meeting context (such as the National People's Congress PLA delegation meeting, the Central Military Commission enlarged meeting, etc.) to facilitate a more precise search. -----

throw310822 9mo ago

FWIW, Xu Qiliang said that war with the United States is inevitable because of the "Thucydides Trap", the theory that an incumbent power is not going to accept the rise of a competing power. In that case, the war would be started by the current ruling power, not by the rising power. I.e., by the US. In 2014, Xi Jinping had already said "China fully understands that we need a peaceful and stable internal and external environment to develop ourselves. We all need to work together to avoid the Thucydides trap - destructive tensions between an emerging power and established powers … Our aim is to foster a new model of major country relations."

kelipso 9mo ago
China kind of avoided the Thicydides trap already it looks like. Trump’s national security strategy document has indicated that the US is going to shore up around the Americas instead of doing the global hegemony strategy. And there have been statements made by US military people (Hegseth maybe) indicating that the US can’t militarily take on China near their coast anymore.

contrarian1234 9mo ago

Russia is not an active economic rival. If they weren't actively attacking neighbors and interfere with governments around the world they would be basically irrelevant. I think the situation is radically different from China. Russia seems to have intentionally positioned themselves as enemies b.c it's part of their identity and the government's attempt to retain some relevance on the international stage

themaninthedark 9mo ago
I was commenting more on: >China as the enemy is a fabricated narrative, bc culturally we seem to have a need to have another cold war, we need a "bad guy" Than the economic rival aspect. Because that was exactly what the Democratic party narrative was in 2012, with similar views echoed in Europe. >Romney's claim drew a memorable slam from Obama during a presidential debate: "The 1980s, they're now calling to ask for their foreign policy back," Obama said, seeking to paint Romney as out of touch on a key foreign policy issue. >Albright, who similarly criticized Romney in 2012, said she'd "underestimated" Russia back then. https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/years-mitt-romney-finally-credit-warnings-russia/story%3fid=61330530 https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/yea... >The EU and Russia are not only neighbours but strategic partners who cooperate on a wide range of bilateral and global challenges, based on joint commitments and shared interests. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/memo_11_104 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/memo_1... >In 2014, Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its military intervention in eastern Ukraine following Ukraine’s intention to sign an Association Agreement (AA) with the European Union caught the EU by surprise. https://eu.boell.org/en/2017/07/03/eu-russia-relations-towards-increasingly-geopolitical-paradigm https://eu.boell.org/en/2017/07/03/eu-russia-relations-towar...
- contrarian1234 9mo ago
  Are you trying to say there is a parallel in that the right voices read the tea leaves correctly and knew that Russia was going to be a crazy rogue state? And that similarly, there are signs China is going to get super belligerent in the future? I would first say that what happened with Russia, at least to me, did not seem inevitable even with hindsight. I don't think Romney had some keen foresight - more like a lucky guess. I also don't really see the same happening with China, though it's of course possible. A sudden economic downturn could trigger a need for an external enemy and a conflict. But a military conflict between the US and China just seems like an absurd fantasy. It'd how you end up with a nuclear war and the death of millions. I don't think the Chinese secretly want this in the long run. They want peace and more business and more wealth