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"We'll see how long the US economy is going to last when it can't even fund its own government." This is fantasy thinking, projection of a subjective wish. Th

"We'll see how long the US economy is going to last when it can't even fund its own government." This is fantasy thinking, projection of a subjective wish. The dollar is the global reserve currency and is under no serious threat to be displaced (and no, the dollar dropping back to where it was a couple of years ago vs the Euro, is not a meaningful event). The US economy is by far the world's largest and now dwarfs the Eurozone. To answer your question: the US economy is going to last a very long time yet. So far it has lasted hundreds of years. Please provide a comparison to any other economy that has lasted so long and done so well. You'll be able to name two or three examples maximum. In the moment people tend to get hyper emotional, hyperbolic. They think something fundamental is changing. That's almost always nothing more than personal subjective projection of what they want to have happen, rather than an objective assessment of reality. Back in reality the US has survived and thrived through drastically worse than anything going on in the present. The Vietnam era was far worse both socially/culturally and economically. WW2 was drastically worse. The Civil War was drastically worse. The Great Depression was drastically worse. But oh yeah sure, the US superpower is about to end any day now.

torlok 9mo ago
Europe survived 2 devastating home wars in the last 100 years, a lot of it was under Soviet occupation, and has smaller natural deposits. The US economy is being propped-up by cheap credit and blitzscaling of tech, and the money is running out. Those companies have to start making money, and the european market is critical to that. The rest of the US market is stagnant at best. The US consumer market is being held up by the top 10% of spenders. The real US economy is disconnected from the stock market and GDP. The average US consumer is weak, and the US is not going to last a trade war with EU and China. Meanwhile the EU signing trade deals.
- carlosjobim 9mo ago
  "survived" - millions and millions were killed. The geographical land mass of Europe will of course survive anything bar a collision with another planet, if this is what you're referring to.
  - fritzorino 9mo ago
    [flagged]
    - carlosjobim 9mo ago
      Those who died weren't still there after the war. Those of them who didn't have any children left behind were effectively genetically exterminated - ending millions of years of their genetic heritage. And cultural heritage. It was the greatest disasters in the history of Europe, and the effects are still deeply felt. The world wars were the greatest idiocy in the history of humanity.
      - fritzorino 9mo ago
        Sure, it was a total disaster. But Europe is still here, European people are still here.
        carlosjobim 9mo ago
        The European land mass is of course there. The European people(s) have been significantly altered from what they were and what they would have been if it wasn't for those wars.
- tpm 9mo ago
  Sorry to tell you it's already 2026 which means WW1 ended 108 years ago.
teiferer 9mo ago
The US economy is currently to overwhelming extent a bunch of tech companies betting hard on that AI will revolutionize everything. With huge circular economy. Once that bubble bursts, you'll see where you really stand
_trampeltier 9mo ago
Don't forget, wars really end much much later. The civil war endet in 31. March 2020 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irene_Triplett https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irene_Triplett > To answer your question: the US economy is going to last a very long time yet. So far it has lasted hundreds of years. How old is the US? > The dollar is the global reserve currency and is under no serious threat to be displaced Everybody leavs the dollar since a while.
fritzorino 9mo ago
> They think something fundamental is changing What is not fundamental about the end of NATO? What is not fundamental about the US actively working to give up its role as global hegemon? The US may survive but that doesn't mean it's not fundamental. I swear you yanks playing down every single thing that Trump does, as if history has ended, are insane. The USA will reap what it is currently sowing and it frankly will deserve it.
mxkopy 9mo ago
The problem is deeper than economics. It’s the festering wound of reconstruction turning putrid. It doesn’t have to be the end of the US, but it certainly can be. Also, I’m not sure the US economy was even great for most of the periods you mentioned. The question of if the US survives to have the same economic standing that it did in the 1800s is not that compelling
ben_w 9mo ago
> The US economy is by far the world's largest and now dwarfs the Eurozone. Nominal, Eurozone, yes. But, being the reserve currency boosts the exchange rate all by itself. I'd argue that this acts as hysteresis, that it adds strength that keeps it a reserve currency longer than it would if there was no memory in the system. Therefore, if anything does induce a shock, the PPP rate is more relevant when considering who might displace it; this other currency (or currencies) would then also get the same hysteresis benefit. The EU, PPP, is about the same as the US (30 T), and I'd argue that "the EU" is important measure for near-future stuff rather than the current Eurozone, because the EU has the no-specific-time-constraint preference to become all Eurozone… except for the bits that opted out. But also some more neighbours who opted in without being in the EU. It's weird. China, PPP, it is bigger than the US, 40 T by PPP. Not quite as big as the gap between the US and India, but close enough I had to get the calculator out I can't eyeball the ratio on a linear graph: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/jfgbd60rbqs1xapvbqyanm5tajxz0kh.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/jfgbd60rb... > To answer your question: the US economy is going to last a very long time yet. So far it has lasted hundreds of years. Please provide a comparison to any other economy that has lasted so long and done so well. You'll be able to name two or three examples maximum. You didn't do well for all of those hundreds of years, if you squint hard enough to ignore the great depression you get to about 150 years, which basically means about the same as every other industrial economy that didn't have a war in the middle split it apart. If you don't do that (because the great depression really sucked), the half of Europe whose national boundaries explosively reorganised, and also the Soviet Union, wave hello. The USSR is an important reference, because basically nobody saw the collapse coming until a year or two before it happened. It was unthinkable. > In the moment people tend to get hyper emotional, hyperbolic. They think something fundamental is changing. That's almost always nothing more than personal subjective projection of what they want to have happen, rather than an objective assessment of reality. All true. > Back in reality the US has survived and thrived through drastically worse than anything going on in the present. The Vietnam era was far worse both socially/culturally and economically. WW2 was drastically worse. The Civil War was drastically worse. The Great Depression was drastically worse. But oh yeah sure, the US superpower is about to end any day now. How many of those occasions did the US refuse to rule out military force with its primary set of allies in order to seize land supposedly to keep it safe from a nation that's now 33% richer than it is? The Civil War was not a time when y'all were a big player on the world stage, it was when Europe was busy carving everything up into colonies.

torlok 9mo ago

Europe survived 2 devastating home wars in the last 100 years, a lot of it was under Soviet occupation, and has smaller natural deposits. The US economy is being propped-up by cheap credit and blitzscaling of tech, and the money is running out. Those companies have to start making money, and the european market is critical to that. The rest of the US market is stagnant at best. The US consumer market is being held up by the top 10% of spenders. The real US economy is disconnected from the stock market and GDP. The average US consumer is weak, and the US is not going to last a trade war with EU and China. Meanwhile the EU signing trade deals.

carlosjobim 9mo ago
"survived" - millions and millions were killed. The geographical land mass of Europe will of course survive anything bar a collision with another planet, if this is what you're referring to.
- fritzorino 9mo ago
  [flagged]
  - carlosjobim 9mo ago
    Those who died weren't still there after the war. Those of them who didn't have any children left behind were effectively genetically exterminated - ending millions of years of their genetic heritage. And cultural heritage. It was the greatest disasters in the history of Europe, and the effects are still deeply felt. The world wars were the greatest idiocy in the history of humanity.
    - fritzorino 9mo ago
      Sure, it was a total disaster. But Europe is still here, European people are still here.
      - carlosjobim 9mo ago
        The European land mass is of course there. The European people(s) have been significantly altered from what they were and what they would have been if it wasn't for those wars.
tpm 9mo ago
Sorry to tell you it's already 2026 which means WW1 ended 108 years ago.

teiferer 9mo ago

The US economy is currently to overwhelming extent a bunch of tech companies betting hard on that AI will revolutionize everything. With huge circular economy. Once that bubble bursts, you'll see where you really stand

_trampeltier 9mo ago

Don't forget, wars really end much much later. The civil war endet in 31. March 2020 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irene_Triplett https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irene_Triplett > To answer your question: the US economy is going to last a very long time yet. So far it has lasted hundreds of years. How old is the US? > The dollar is the global reserve currency and is under no serious threat to be displaced Everybody leavs the dollar since a while.

fritzorino 9mo ago

> They think something fundamental is changing What is not fundamental about the end of NATO? What is not fundamental about the US actively working to give up its role as global hegemon? The US may survive but that doesn't mean it's not fundamental. I swear you yanks playing down every single thing that Trump does, as if history has ended, are insane. The USA will reap what it is currently sowing and it frankly will deserve it.

mxkopy 9mo ago

The problem is deeper than economics. It’s the festering wound of reconstruction turning putrid. It doesn’t have to be the end of the US, but it certainly can be. Also, I’m not sure the US economy was even great for most of the periods you mentioned. The question of if the US survives to have the same economic standing that it did in the 1800s is not that compelling

ben_w 9mo ago

> The US economy is by far the world's largest and now dwarfs the Eurozone. Nominal, Eurozone, yes. But, being the reserve currency boosts the exchange rate all by itself. I'd argue that this acts as hysteresis, that it adds strength that keeps it a reserve currency longer than it would if there was no memory in the system. Therefore, if anything does induce a shock, the PPP rate is more relevant when considering who might displace it; this other currency (or currencies) would then also get the same hysteresis benefit. The EU, PPP, is about the same as the US (30 T), and I'd argue that "the EU" is important measure for near-future stuff rather than the current Eurozone, because the EU has the no-specific-time-constraint preference to become all Eurozone… except for the bits that opted out. But also some more neighbours who opted in without being in the EU. It's weird. China, PPP, it is bigger than the US, 40 T by PPP. Not quite as big as the gap between the US and India, but close enough I had to get the calculator out I can't eyeball the ratio on a linear graph: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/jfgbd60rbqs1xapvbqyanm5tajxz0kh.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/jfgbd60rb... > To answer your question: the US economy is going to last a very long time yet. So far it has lasted hundreds of years. Please provide a comparison to any other economy that has lasted so long and done so well. You'll be able to name two or three examples maximum. You didn't do well for all of those hundreds of years, if you squint hard enough to ignore the great depression you get to about 150 years, which basically means about the same as every other industrial economy that didn't have a war in the middle split it apart. If you don't do that (because the great depression really sucked), the half of Europe whose national boundaries explosively reorganised, and also the Soviet Union, wave hello. The USSR is an important reference, because basically nobody saw the collapse coming until a year or two before it happened. It was unthinkable. > In the moment people tend to get hyper emotional, hyperbolic. They think something fundamental is changing. That's almost always nothing more than personal subjective projection of what they want to have happen, rather than an objective assessment of reality. All true. > Back in reality the US has survived and thrived through drastically worse than anything going on in the present. The Vietnam era was far worse both socially/culturally and economically. WW2 was drastically worse. The Civil War was drastically worse. The Great Depression was drastically worse. But oh yeah sure, the US superpower is about to end any day now. How many of those occasions did the US refuse to rule out military force with its primary set of allies in order to seize land supposedly to keep it safe from a nation that's now 33% richer than it is? The Civil War was not a time when y'all were a big player on the world stage, it was when Europe was busy carving everything up into colonies.