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Sneak preview of the TSMC shortage that will sweep the world in 2027 when China takes Taiwan and the TSMC scuttles their chip fabs on the island. I don’t know
by tim-tday 10mo ago
Sneak preview of the TSMC shortage that will sweep the world in 2027 when China takes Taiwan and the TSMC scuttles their chip fabs on the island.
I don’t know the hedge to position against this but I’m pretty sure China will make good on its promise.
- fauigerzigerk 10mo agoAlternatively, China could make progress fabricating and exporting its own chips and designing its own GPUs. The entire chip sector could go the way of solar panels and EVs with prices dropping and margins collapsing to near zero.
- Jackpillar 10mo agoYup, they're also like 5-10 years out from their own lithography machines as well. China wanted Taiwan before TSMC was a thing, by the time they take Taiwan back they won't need TSMC.
- ajross 10mo ago> I don’t know the hedge to position against this Buy in-demand fab output today, even at a premium price and even if you can't install or power it all, expecting shortages tomorrow. Which is pretty much the way the tech economy is already working. So no, no hedge. NVIDIA's customers already beat you to it.
- edm0nd 10mo agoI'm not sure how true it is or not but I heard that TSMC has the ability to remotely destroy all of their main fab equipment in the event the Chinese are invading Taiwan.
- schainks 10mo agoThis is correct: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-21/asml-tsmc-can-disable-chip-machines-if-china-invades-taiwan https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-21/asml-tsmc... The most advanced ASML machines also cost something like $300-400M each and I am willing to bet if configured wrong can heavily damage themselves and the building they are in.
- bob1029 10mo agoYou don't need to physically destroy anything. All you need to do is zero-fill the storage devices in the facility and walk away. The tools are worthless without parameters/recipes/configuration. Reinventing this stuff is harder than acquiring an EUV tool.
- jfoster 10mo agoIsn't it fairly likely that espionage would have already got to that kind of data?
- jfoster 10mo agoI wonder if the destruction would actually go ahead. What's worse, China having a monopoly on production, or the entire world being set back by X years? In this scenario X is a two-digit number, right?
- KeplerBoy 10mo agoI don't think X is a two-digit number. TSMC might be slightly ahead of Intel, maybe a few years ahead of Samsung. People forget that the original ChatGPT models were powered by the A100, a chip manufactured by Samsung, which was Sota just a few years ago. On top TSMC has fabs and personnel with expertise in other places. After all this threat isn't new.
- IncreasePosts 10mo agoI'm about 100% positive America would consider that an act of war and respond accordingly.
- amanaplanacanal 10mo agoIt feels like America is already planning to gin up its own wars in its own hemisphere.
- strangegecko 10mo agoThere is no "promise". The 2027 date was a guideline for their military to be "ready", which they may not be either. That is a far cry from the decision to actually make a move. They will only do that if they're certain it will work out for them, and as things stand, it is very risky for Xi.
- charlieyu1 10mo agoI have heard about that since I was a child