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>Makes sense. Russia and friends would seem to have an interest in Scottish independence as it undermines the UK. Do they? Since Independent Scotland is very l

>Makes sense. Russia and friends would seem to have an interest in Scottish independence as it undermines the UK. Do they? Since Independent Scotland is very likely to rejoin EU it seems to me Russia & co would be interested in keeping it on the sinking ship that is post-brexit UK(economy wise).

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mrec 9mo ago
I don't think that's a given, or even necessarily a strong likelihood. A majority of Scotland's trade is with the rest of the UK, unlike the Brexit situation where a shrinking minority of the UK's trade was with the rest of the EU, the only EU member for which this was the case. Scotland is accustomed to deficit spending and to large subsidies from the rUK, neither of which would be epecially palatable to EU finances. And while I certainly think it's fair to describe the UK economy as a sinking ship, I also think that blaming that on Brexit is, to put it politely, "starting with your conclusion". UK growth has been higher than France, Germany or Italy since 2016. Brexit has obviously had impacts, but they haven't all been negative (the City in particular has zero enthusiasm to fall back into any EU alignment) and I think the COVID lockdown shambles and the Homerically inept current government have been bigger factors. I found this a decent recent overview on the common analytical takes, if you're interested: https://julianhjessop.substack.com/p/what-the-nber-gets-wrong-on-the-economic https://julianhjessop.substack.com/p/what-the-nber-gets-wron...
- neoromantique 9mo ago
  Given that a sentiment for independence of Scotland has only really became an actual topic people discuss semi-seriously after the Brexit, I think it is fair to assume that there is a quite high likelihood of it, and there are quite some EU states that get preferential treatment budget wise, no reason to assume that Scotland cannot become that. Covid has been global, lockdowns have been everywhere, UK is not unique and did not even have the worst of it in terms of lockdown strictness. While "averaged out" UK economy post-brexit/pre-covid might not look that much worse than EU, if you look into specifics the picture gets far uglier with entire economy sectors going bankrupt, all in all it was a spectacular self inflicted damage that will be felt for decades to come, especially now that US is becoming a hostile actor.
  - mrec 9mo ago
    > Given that a sentiment for independence of Scotland has only really became an actual topic people discuss semi-seriously after the Brexit The Scottish independence referendum was in 2014, two years before the Brexit referendum.
    - neoromantique 9mo ago
      And? Sentiment has changed drastically after brexit. I have lived in UK during the referendum, I remember it vividly, nobody seriously believed that it would actually go through, it seemed THAT absurd. I am still convinced that brexit is one of the first big wins of Russian meddling campaigns.
- ricardo81 9mo ago
  Scotland would be a net contributor to EU finances as an EU state. Its GDP/capita is very similar to the UK's. Though its notional deficit would be far higher and break EU rules IIRC (which have been broken numerous times by existing EU states).
- hostyle 9mo ago
  It would disrupt UKs defence (nuclear submarines in particular) and energy (oil fields) both of which currently are primarily based geographically within Scotlands territory. This is classic Russian tactics. Its not about whether Scotland joins EU or stays with UK, or which is economically or politically the best decision - its about seeding chaos and uncertainty within one of Russias largest antagonists.
mcintyre1994 9mo ago
I think it'd make the remainder of the UK weaker and more divided if Scotland joined the EU after leaving the UK, so I'd think that serves their interests too.
- neoromantique 9mo ago
  Yes, but it would make EU stronger, so how does it serve their interests? If anything it would force UK back into the EU, further strengthening it.
SPICLK2 9mo ago
The EU has not yet set a precedent for allowing breakaway states into full membership, so it's far from a given that an independent Scotland would be able to rejoin the EU. Scotland is of enormous strategic importance due to its location relative to Russia's naval ports. An independent Scotland with no other backing would have minimal resources to monitor and deter Russian naval activity.
- pjc50 9mo ago
  The precedent is now the promise to allow Ukraine into the EU. I note that if you're looking for a weakly defended EU country reachable from the North Atlantic and quietly relying on the UK defence umbrella without admitting it, Ireland is already there.
  - SPICLK2 9mo ago
    That is an interesting precedent. However, Ukraine is not a breakaway state from an existing EU member state (or a state which has been in the EU). There are numerous regions in the EU on a similar path, and none have yet succeeded (including Kosovo, which has been independent since 2008). I'm also not talking about the defence of Scotland itself, I'm noting that monitoring and curtailing Russian naval activity in the Baltic Sea corridor is of wider strategic importance. If Scotland became unable to do this, Russia would have an easy exit path for naval vessels from its Baltic Sea ports. In your example, Ireland as an EU member has significantly more access to military resources than otherwise.
sofixa 9mo ago
> Since Independent Scotland is very likely to rejoin EU That is in no way clear because Spain has previously (during the Scottish independence referendum) indicated they would veto such a thing (because they don't want to give Catalonia any ideas or hopes). But in any case, a Scottish independence would force the UK to find, and invest a lot in, a new base for its nuclear submarines. Scotland is also the most important UK part of GIUK gap, where there is a lot of infrastructure to catch and track Russian assets entering the North Atlantic. UK losing access to that is not good for it nor for the US with their special relationship. A Scotland in the EU can also create tensions between the UK and the EU, which would also be good for Russia.
gghhzzgghhzz 9mo ago
An independent Scotland or Wales would have pretty much the same trading relationship with the EU, as England has. At least for several decades after independence The level of integration of everything, including trade and supply chains and finance etc, is so big as to be almost total. In addition, I'm pretty sure that EU would not welcome another hard border with England, it's already waisted far too much time and effort on the issue in Ireland. I'm sure it doesn't want to have to go through that again.
- youngtaff 9mo ago
  An independent Wales is a non-starter and I say that as a Welshman… Wales is just to reliant on subsidies from London (as is Scotland and the majority of England)
  - ErroneousBosh 9mo ago
    Scotland heavily subsidises England.
    - youngtaff 9mo ago
      That might have been true in the time of peak North Sea oil but it's not true anymore

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mrec 9mo ago

I don't think that's a given, or even necessarily a strong likelihood. A majority of Scotland's trade is with the rest of the UK, unlike the Brexit situation where a shrinking minority of the UK's trade was with the rest of the EU, the only EU member for which this was the case. Scotland is accustomed to deficit spending and to large subsidies from the rUK, neither of which would be epecially palatable to EU finances. And while I certainly think it's fair to describe the UK economy as a sinking ship, I also think that blaming that on Brexit is, to put it politely, "starting with your conclusion". UK growth has been higher than France, Germany or Italy since 2016. Brexit has obviously had impacts, but they haven't all been negative (the City in particular has zero enthusiasm to fall back into any EU alignment) and I think the COVID lockdown shambles and the Homerically inept current government have been bigger factors. I found this a decent recent overview on the common analytical takes, if you're interested: https://julianhjessop.substack.com/p/what-the-nber-gets-wrong-on-the-economic https://julianhjessop.substack.com/p/what-the-nber-gets-wron...

neoromantique 9mo ago
Given that a sentiment for independence of Scotland has only really became an actual topic people discuss semi-seriously after the Brexit, I think it is fair to assume that there is a quite high likelihood of it, and there are quite some EU states that get preferential treatment budget wise, no reason to assume that Scotland cannot become that. Covid has been global, lockdowns have been everywhere, UK is not unique and did not even have the worst of it in terms of lockdown strictness. While "averaged out" UK economy post-brexit/pre-covid might not look that much worse than EU, if you look into specifics the picture gets far uglier with entire economy sectors going bankrupt, all in all it was a spectacular self inflicted damage that will be felt for decades to come, especially now that US is becoming a hostile actor.
- mrec 9mo ago
  > Given that a sentiment for independence of Scotland has only really became an actual topic people discuss semi-seriously after the Brexit The Scottish independence referendum was in 2014, two years before the Brexit referendum.
  - neoromantique 9mo ago
    And? Sentiment has changed drastically after brexit. I have lived in UK during the referendum, I remember it vividly, nobody seriously believed that it would actually go through, it seemed THAT absurd. I am still convinced that brexit is one of the first big wins of Russian meddling campaigns.
ricardo81 9mo ago
Scotland would be a net contributor to EU finances as an EU state. Its GDP/capita is very similar to the UK's. Though its notional deficit would be far higher and break EU rules IIRC (which have been broken numerous times by existing EU states).
hostyle 9mo ago
It would disrupt UKs defence (nuclear submarines in particular) and energy (oil fields) both of which currently are primarily based geographically within Scotlands territory. This is classic Russian tactics. Its not about whether Scotland joins EU or stays with UK, or which is economically or politically the best decision - its about seeding chaos and uncertainty within one of Russias largest antagonists.

mcintyre1994 9mo ago

I think it'd make the remainder of the UK weaker and more divided if Scotland joined the EU after leaving the UK, so I'd think that serves their interests too.

neoromantique 9mo ago
Yes, but it would make EU stronger, so how does it serve their interests? If anything it would force UK back into the EU, further strengthening it.

SPICLK2 9mo ago

The EU has not yet set a precedent for allowing breakaway states into full membership, so it's far from a given that an independent Scotland would be able to rejoin the EU. Scotland is of enormous strategic importance due to its location relative to Russia's naval ports. An independent Scotland with no other backing would have minimal resources to monitor and deter Russian naval activity.

pjc50 9mo ago
The precedent is now the promise to allow Ukraine into the EU. I note that if you're looking for a weakly defended EU country reachable from the North Atlantic and quietly relying on the UK defence umbrella without admitting it, Ireland is already there.
- SPICLK2 9mo ago
  That is an interesting precedent. However, Ukraine is not a breakaway state from an existing EU member state (or a state which has been in the EU). There are numerous regions in the EU on a similar path, and none have yet succeeded (including Kosovo, which has been independent since 2008). I'm also not talking about the defence of Scotland itself, I'm noting that monitoring and curtailing Russian naval activity in the Baltic Sea corridor is of wider strategic importance. If Scotland became unable to do this, Russia would have an easy exit path for naval vessels from its Baltic Sea ports. In your example, Ireland as an EU member has significantly more access to military resources than otherwise.

sofixa 9mo ago

> Since Independent Scotland is very likely to rejoin EU That is in no way clear because Spain has previously (during the Scottish independence referendum) indicated they would veto such a thing (because they don't want to give Catalonia any ideas or hopes). But in any case, a Scottish independence would force the UK to find, and invest a lot in, a new base for its nuclear submarines. Scotland is also the most important UK part of GIUK gap, where there is a lot of infrastructure to catch and track Russian assets entering the North Atlantic. UK losing access to that is not good for it nor for the US with their special relationship. A Scotland in the EU can also create tensions between the UK and the EU, which would also be good for Russia.

gghhzzgghhzz 9mo ago

An independent Scotland or Wales would have pretty much the same trading relationship with the EU, as England has. At least for several decades after independence The level of integration of everything, including trade and supply chains and finance etc, is so big as to be almost total. In addition, I'm pretty sure that EU would not welcome another hard border with England, it's already waisted far too much time and effort on the issue in Ireland. I'm sure it doesn't want to have to go through that again.

youngtaff 9mo ago
An independent Wales is a non-starter and I say that as a Welshman… Wales is just to reliant on subsidies from London (as is Scotland and the majority of England)
- ErroneousBosh 9mo ago
  Scotland heavily subsidises England.
  - youngtaff 9mo ago
    That might have been true in the time of peak North Sea oil but it's not true anymore